2023 Atlantic Coast Conference Football Betting Preview

Upcoming season preview for the top ACC teams

No Splitting Allowed

Beginning this season, the ACC will no longer be split into two divisions.

A new scheduling model begins in 2023 season. The new model, which eliminates the Atlantic and Coastal divisions, has a 3-5-5 structure where each team will play three primary opponents on a yearly basis.

From there, each team will play the other 10 teams twice during a four-year cycle — once at home and again on the road. The new format ensures that each team will play the other 13 conference members at least twice during a four-year span.

The ACC title game will feature the top two teams based on conference win percentage in the loop.

The primary opponents for each team are as follows:

Team	Primary Opponent 1	Primary Opponent 2	Primary Opponent 3
Boston College	Miami	Pitt	Syracuse
Clemson	Florida State	Georgia Tech	NC State
Duke	North Carolina	NC State	Wake Forest
Florida State	Clemson	Miami	Syracuse
Georgia Tech	Clemson	Louisville	Wake Forest
Louisville	Georgia Tech	Miami	Virginia
Miami	Boston College	Florida State	Louisville
North Carolina	Duke	NC State	Virginia
NC State	Clemson	Duke	North Carolina
Pittsburgh	Boston College	Syracuse	Virginia Tech
Syracuse	Boston College	Florida State	Pitt
Virginia	Louisville	North Carolina	Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech	Pitt	Virginia	Wake Forest
Wake Forest	Duke	Georgia Tech	Virginia Tech

 

Let’s Go Bowling

After a two-year lull in which ACC teams went 2-11 SU and 3-10 in bowl games for 2020 thru 2021, they picked up the pace last season going 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS.

Better yet, ACC bowlers improve to 20-10-1 ATS when entering off a win, including a long-term 29-28 SU and 33-22-2 ATS as dog of 4 or fewer points dating back to 1980. And when these same bowlers improve to 18-5-1 ATS when not coming off a season-ending win of 20 or more points Ah. The power of the Well Oiled Machine.

Note: Team write-ups are excerpts from the 2023 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide magazine – on sale at Barnes & Noble and Books A Million bookstores nationwide, or at PlaybookSports.com. All teams are listed alphabetically, by division. The numbers listed on the top line alongside the team name represents its offensive and defensive starters, and the number to the right of those (in parenthesis) designates as its opening projected season win total.

BOSTON COLLEGE – Waiting for Take Off – 9 / 6 (5.5 Total Wins)

If it seems that the Boston College Eagles football team has had a rough couple of seasons, it’s because they have. But there is hope for improvement in 2023. Head coach Jeff Hafley has made major changes to the coaching staff and is optimistic about the combination of experienced players and new coaches. The team is ranked No. 8 in the nation for returning production by Bill Connelly of ESPN, which could bode well for their success in the upcoming season. However, the team will need to adjust to the loss of NFL rookie WR Zay Jones and long-time QB Phil Jurkovec, who were key players on offense.

PLAY ON: vs. Connecticut (10/28)

Stat you will Like: The Eagles have been bowl eligible in 20 of the past 24 seasons.

CLEMSON – Driving Home the Point – 7 /8 (9/5)

After making the CFB Playoff six straight years before missing out the last two, you can rest assured Dabo Swinney will drive home the point that ESPN’s 2023 College Football Power Index (FPI) projects Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia, and LSU to make the College Football Playoff, with Clemson ranked #8. Following an unsatisfactory (for him) 11-win campaign, Swinney brought in Garrett Riley from TCU to overhaul its stagnant offense. QB Cade Klubnik will take the next step in his development after playing 10 games as a true freshman last season. The former 5-star blue-chip recruit will now be running Riley’s version of the Air Raid, which better suits his dual-threat skill set.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. North Carolina (11/18)

Stat you will Like: Clemson has won 142 games the past 12 seasons – winning 10+ games each season – 2nd to Alabama’s 151 wins.

DUKE – Elk Hunting – *10 / 8 (6.5)

After spending eight seasons as a Power Five defensive coordinator at major schools, Duke gave Mike Elko an opportunity to call his own shots and he jumped at it. While taking over a football program at a self-proclaimed “basketball school” isn’t exactly a head coach’s dream, Elko knew that the pressure to make a quick turnaround wouldn’t be there. Duke was off a 3-win season, including 0-8 in the ACC. And yet he turned it all around and won nine games in 2022, culminating in a dominant Military Bowl win. With talented quarterback Riley Leonard back, Elko is building something special at Duke. They better lock him up now.

PLAY ON: at North Carolina (11/11)

Stat you will Like: The Blue Devils are 28-4 outright in games in which they outgain their opponent.

FLORIDA STATE – Break on Through – *8 / 10 (10)

The Seminoles slayed the transfer portal this offseason (see our Transfer Portal Winners review in the Playbook Magazine), and that couples neatly toward the fact they are ranked No. 1 overall in Returning Production Rankings behind 18 returning starters. FSU also managed to retain talented QB Jordan Travis and defensive end Jared Verse, not to mention the team’s powerful running back corps. All of this for a team that scored 10.2 PPG in the first quarter of games last season – No. 3 in the nation. After playing the third highest total of freshmen in 2022, while winning its final six games of the campaign, the tide has turned in Tallahassee.

PLAY ON: at Clemson (9/23)

Stat you will Like: Head coach Mike Norvell is 13-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite versus losing opponents.

GEORGIA TECH – Key to Perfection – 5 / 7 (4.5)

The good news for new head coach Brent Key is that 170 of Georgia Tech’s 264 team-starts (64.4%) in 2021 were made by underclassmen. They are now upperclassmen. That, and the fact they worked in concert with Key last season, who took over as interim coach for the final eight games while picking up four of Tech’s five victories. The four wins included two road victories over nationally ranked opponents. Key, a former football letter winner of Georgia Tech, was also an OL coach for two years at Alabama, where the Tide rolled to a 27-2 record. He looks to be the perfect hire for the Techsters.

PLAY ON: at Miami Florida (10/7) 

Stat you will Like: The Yellow Jackets of Georgia Tech are a sting-less 0-6 ATS as a home favorite.

LOUISVILLE – Bombs Away – *6 / 7 (8)

Jeff Brohm, a former Cardinals’ quarterback and head coach at Purdue and Western Kentucky, returns to his alma mater as head coach. He led Purdue to four bowl appearances and a divisional title in the Big Ten Conference, and is recognized as one of the top offensive minds in the country. Brohm coached Western Kentucky’s high-powered offense that averaged 44.6 PPG, 356.6 passing yards, and 526.2 yards of total offense per game over three seasons. In addition to former Purdue QB Jack Plummer, who had a strong season at Cal last year, Brohm also added six new wide receivers in the offseason, increasing the team’s offensive firepower.

PLAY AGAINST: at Pittsburgh 10/14

Stat you will Like: In his seven seasons as a head coach, Jeff Brohm’s teams are 57-7 when scoring 30 or more points.

MIAMI FLORIDA – Fueling the Fire – *9 / 10 (7.5)

New hire Shannon Dawson as offensive coordinator was the first step in head coach Mario Crisotobal’s recovery plan as Cristobal looks to fan the flames following last season’s disaster. Dawson is known for running an Air Raid style offense, having coached under Hal Mumme. With Dawson coaching him, Houston QB Clayton Tune threw for 4,074 yards and 40 TDs last season. He threw for 3,546 yards and 30 TDs in 2021. It means QB Tyler Van Dyke, who fell off the map last season, should benefit. With 19 starters back and carrying a chip on their shoulders, the Canes will be on a “mission” this season.

PLAY ON: vs. Texas A&N (9/9) – *KEY as a dog.

Stat you will Like: Mario Cristobal is 13-5 ATS vs. undefeated foes, including 10-0 ATS against those who allow more than 11 PPG.

NC STATE – Restacking the Pack – *7 /5 (6.5)

The Wolfpack’s 17 returning starters last season led the ACC Atlantic division, yet it didn’t help as NCSU went just 4-4 in conference play in 2022. It was a disappointing season for Dave Doeren’s troops, who entertained visions of a much higher bowl invite than they landed in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl at season’s end as the offense took a powder. Gone is QB Devin Leary, who transferred out to Kentucky. Graduate QB Brennan Armstrong transferred in from Virginia where he put up eye-popping numbers two seasons ago. But it will once again be up to the defense to save the day for Doeren, mark it down.

PLAY AGAINST: at Wake Forest (11/11)

Stat you will Like: The Wolfpack are 56-13 SU and 37-24-1 ATS in games in which they outgain an opponent under Dave Doeren.

NORTH CAROLINA – Maye Day – *9 / 9 (8.5)

He’s in. He’s out. He’s back in, and that’s all that counts this season to HC Mack Brown, who welcomes back junior QB Drake Maye, thought by many to be a possible first choice in the next NFL Draft. The 6’4” former 5-star prospect put up monster numbers for the Heels last season when he completed over 66% of his passes for 4,321 yards, 38 TDs and 7 INTs. So why, after vacillating back and forth over leaving for another program, did he return to Chapel Hill after being heavily recruited in the Transfer Portal? “Carolina blue means a lot to me,” Maye said. “It means something playing for my home state.”

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Appalachian State (9/9)

Stat you will Like: 15 of the 21 regular-season losses under Mack Brown have been one-possession games.

PITTSBURGH – Tough as Nails – *7 / 5 (6.5)

Pitt must replace their starting quarterback for the second straight season, as Boston College graduate transfer Phil Jurkovec is expected to fill the position. Jurkovec, a prolific passer in Western Pennsylvania high school history, signed with the Panthers as a December graduate transfer and will play his final collegiate season in his hometown with Pitt seeking a third consecutive Top 25 finish for the first time since the 1979-83 seasons. Under head coach Pat ‘Nails’ Narduzzi, Pitt has achieved 41 victories in ACC play, second only to Clemson. They also lead the country in combined defensive touchdowns (10) and pick sixes (eight) over the past two seasons (2021-22).

PASS

Stat you will Like: Over the past three seasons Pitt is 11-1 in November, the lone loss coming at Clemson in 2020.

SYRACUSE – Orange is the New Normal – *7 / 8 (6.5) 

His back was against the wall last season, and with it, HC Dino Babers responded, leading the Orange to 7 victories and its first bowl game in four years. A closer look, though, shows them starting the season 6-0 before plateauing to a 1-6 finish. Thus, the heat is likely to be back on Babers in 2023. The good news is Syracuse started the third-largest contingent of underclassmen last season. And you have to give them their due, as after going 1-17 ‘In The Stats’ in conference games during 2019-2020, they’ve worked their way back to respectability going 9-7 ITS the past two seasons.

PLAY AGAINST: at Purdue (9/16)

Stat you will Like: Syracuse tied with Utah State for the most penalties (111) last season.

VIRGINIA – Starting Over – 5 / 9 (3.5)

It was a double dose of bad, and really bad news for first-year coach Tony Elliott last year. The bad news started following a campus shooting which resulted in the killing of three football players by a former UVA football player. As a result, the season was cut two games short. On the field the Cavs came up woefully short offensively, scoring just 17 PPG while gaining 344 YPG, down 18 points and 108 yards respectively from the previous season. Worse, QB Brennan Armstrong and OC Robert Anae each left for NC State. Better news is the Cavs’ defense improved 8 PPG and 108 YPG, and 9 of those starters are back.   

PLAY ON: vs. Miami Florida (10/28)

Stat you will Like: Virginia is 2-12 ATS when coming off a SUATS loss as a favorite and facing a losing opponent.

VIRGINIA TECH – Prying Towel – *7 / 7 (5)

Last year new head coach Brent Pry, a former defensive coordinator with ULL, Georgia Southern, Vanderbilt and Penn State, brought in two QBs (Jason Brown, South Carolina, and Grant Wells, Marshall), and a pair of WRs from the transfer portal to boost the passing attack. It worked, but a neglected running game went downhill. It’s a trait inborn with DCs who take over a new program as head coaches. A bigger concern is the Hokies’ season-ending 0-8 ITS (In The Stats) mark to close out the campaign as they were pushed all around the field. It’s what happens when you average fewer than 18 points and 300 yards per game.  

PLAY ON: vs. Old Dominion (9/2)

Stat you will Like: The last time the Hokies suffered three losing seasons in a row was 1977-79. They went 8-4 in 1980.

WAKE FOREST – Sam Hartman, Sam Hartman – 5 /6 (6)

Mary Hartman, Mary Hartman was a popular satirical soap opera that aired in the late 1970s. The Wake Forest football team is dealing with similar limerence this season with various bizarre and violent incidents surrounding the football program. Read: they took a beating in the Transfer Portal and will be forced to fend for themselves. Gone is future NFL first round QB Sam Hartman. Topping it off is a dearth of Returning Production, along with half of last year’s starters. On top of it all, the Demons will be forced to face Hartman when they travel to South Bend in mid-November. To that the Demons will likely say, “Hello, old friend.”

PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. Florida State (10/28)

Stat you will Like: The Demon Deacons will face bowl teams in each of their final six games of the season.

Marc Lawrence has been providing top handicapping tips and picks at PlaybookSports.com for nearly three decades. Get his top picks and best bets here at gamblersWORLD.