2023 Big 12 Conference Football Betting Preview

Upcoming season preview for the top Big 12 teams

Coming And Going

After falling to ten football teams in 2011, the conference will balloon to 14 this year with the arrivals of BYU, Houston, UCF and Cincinnati, before once again matching up with its name next season when Texas and Oklahoma depart to the SEC to make it a 12-team league again.

It’s about time.

Preseason Precursor

Kansas State led all Big 12 teams with six players on the 2022 Preseason All-Big 12 Team. The Wildcats benefited from the talent push when they won 10 games for the first time since 2012.   

That honor goes to Texas this season with six Longhorns landing a spot in the first-team All-Big 12 team. They were followed by Kansas (5), and Oklahoma State and TCU (3).  

Need To Know

• Only two teams in the Power 5 return less production than newbie Cincinnati.

• In the past 15 seasons, Oklahoma State has nearly twice as many 10-win seasons (7) than they do seasons with fewer than eight wins (4). It seems no matter what the team loses, the Pokes are in the mix.

Note: Team write-ups are excerpts from the 2023 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide magazine – on sale at Barnes & Noble and Books A Million bookstores nationwide, or at PlaybookSports.com. All teams are listed alphabetically, by division. The numbers listed on the top line alongside the team name represents its offensive and defensive starters, and the number to the right of those (in parenthesis) designates as its opening projected season win total.

2023 BIG 12 POINTSPREAD POWER PLAYS

BAYLOR – Three Yards and a Cloud of Worst *7 / 5 (7.5)

The Bears figured to bounce following a school record 12-win season in 2021, and they did. The target on their back was simply too big and as a result of a dismal 0-4 conclusion to the season, Baylor has now produced just six winning records in the last 27 years in conference play, the worst in the Big 12. Meanwhile, Dave Aranda’s unfriendly pro-style offense continues to catch fire from critics. It’s so non-NFL friendly that elite 5 five-star QB recruits like Nico Iamaleava – the greatest name in the history of the transfer portal – never gave Baylor the time of day. A severe lack of returning production only makes matters worse.

PLAY ON: at TCU (11/18)

Stat you will Like: The Bears are 8-1 ATS in games after failing to score 10 points in their previous game.

BYU – Mission Accomplished *8 / 7 (5.5)

The new-look Big 12 takes shape this season where BYU, along with Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF, enter the conference, marking the Cougars’ first conference affiliation since 2011, when they last roamed the Mountain West. And if it feels like home, it should, for a former Independent program that has won 23 conference championships. To better prepare for the rigid opposition ahead – last 10 games all vs. Power 5 foes – BYU reeled in mission-minded QB Kedon Slovis from the transfer portal. He had a sensational freshman campaign at USC but has regressed since and was limited by a run-heavy offense during his one-year stint at Pittsburgh last season.

PASS

Stat you will Like: The Cougars are 17-7 ATS as dogs of 12 or fewer points under Kalani Sitake, including 7-0 ATS after Game Seven.

CINCINNATI – Fickle in the Middle *3 /6 (5/5)

The Bearcats enter the Big 12 conference coming off five consecutive bowl games, including an appearance in 2021’s College Football Playoff. The effort was strong enough to land Luke Fickell a new job at Wisconsin, a move that surprised some considering the Bearcats are moving up into the Power Five ranks as a member of the Big 12 this season. Meanwhile, new head coach Scott Satterfield, with big shoes to fill, brings a 76-48 record in 10 years at the helm of Louisville and Appalachian State. In a rocky start, three of Satterfield’s new assistants moved along for “better opportunities” just over a month into their new positions.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Miami Ohio (9/16)

Stat you will Like: The Bearcats were 44-4 SU and 29-14-2 ATS in games under Luke Fickell.

HOUSTON – Million Dollar Score 7 / 6 (4.5)

After springing from three wins in 2020 to 12 wins in 2021, an expected return to the norm was in the cards for the Cougars last season – and they acquiesced en route to an 8-win effort. Nevertheless, head coach Dana Holgorsen, a 16-year veteran of the Big 12, cashed a $1 million bonus as part of his contract when Houston was accepted into conference. Landing 4-star wide receiver Mikal Harrison-Pilot is huge. And so is the fact Houston faces only two opponents outside the state of Texas this season. Better yet, they do not have a Power Five team on their non-conference schedule this season or next. 

PASS

Stat you will Like: Head coach Dana Holgorsen’s teams are 1-9 ATS as home favorites against conference foes coming off a double-digit loss.

IOWA STATE – Once is Enough *9 / 6 (5.5)

For a program on the rise under an energetic head coach, 2022 was a disaster for the Cyclones. For them to bounce back this season they’re going to need a better effort from QB Hunter Dekkers who took over for NFL surprise sensation Brock Purdy last season. In addition, Jirehl Brock is also back as the team’s leading rusher, along with two of its top three wide receivers. The key, though, is a defense that ranked 4th overall in the nation last season. If they can come close to matching last year’s output, Matt Campbell will avoid his first consecutive losing season.

PLAY ON: vs. Oklahoma State (9/23)

Stat you will Like: Matt Campbell is 26-10 ATS as a conference dog, including 14-2 ATS versus foes coming off a SUATS win.

KANSAS – And the Verdict Is . . . *10 / 7 (6.5)

The Jayhawks are coming off the program’s first bowl season since 2008. 

It was quite an accomplishment considering Kansas went 2-10 in Lance Leipold’s first season, back in the day when 2-10 at Kansas was a triumph. Yet the jury is still out. Leipold hired Sean Snyder, the son of KSU coaching legend and Hall of Fame inductee Bill Snyder. Sean Snyder has coached four Big 12 special teams’ players over the years, and his units set or tied eight team records and 20 individual records. It’s why he was inducted into KSU’s athletics Hall of Fame and why Leipold jumped at the chance to add him to his staff.

PLAY AGAINST: at Iowa State (11/4)

Stat you will Like: Lance Leipold is 26-10-1 ATS at home in his career as an FBS head coach, including 8-0 ATS as a favorite of more than 7 points.

KANSAS STATE – The Kliem *8 / 5 (8.5)

Kudos to Chris Klieman, the Wildcats head coach, who recently inked an 8-year contract extension totaling more than $44M. Well deserved. Klieman guided the Wildcats to a 10-4 record, a Big 12 championship and a Sugar Bowl berth last season. Just as important, all of Klieman’s assistants received raises as well. Expectations are again high for the coming season with a number of key starters returning, including quarterback Will Howard and the entire line on offense, three of who are “super seniors”. If they continue their pace of striking quickly – they scored 10.5 PPG first quarter last season, No. 2 in the nation – the Cats will prove the contract extension worthy.

PLAY ON: vs. Texas (11/4)

Stat you will Like: Over the last 24 years, KSU stands head and shoulders atop the nation in Kick-6’s, Kick/Punt Returns for a TD, with more than 20 over runner-up Alabama.

OKLAHOMA – Sooner than Later *7 / 7 (9.5)

A skittish Brent Venables hit the transfer portal with both fists this offseason. It’s what you do after taking it on the chops in your first year as a head coach with a program that suffered its first losing season since 1998. It was so bad the Sooners were 39-1 in regular season games heading into last year when coming off a loss, before going just 2-3 under Venables. It’s not often you’ll find a team that finished in 7th place and moves to title contention in a major conference the following year, and not be considered a Cinderella team. Meet Oklahoma, who bolts for the SEC next season.

PLAY ON: vs. West Virginia (11/11)

Stat you will Like: Oklahoma faces no Power-5 non-conference foes this season for the first time since 2000 – the last year they won a national championship.

OKLAHOMA STATE – Guns a Blazin’ 7 / 6 (9.5)

Mike Gundy is the longest tenured coach in the Big 12, entering his 19th season in 2023 as the head coach of the Cowboys. Gundy has led Oklahoma State to a winning record 18 consecutive years, missing the mark in just his first year back in 2005. Changes a plenty are at hand this season, though, with 4-year starting signal caller Spencer Sanders opting to transfer out in his 5th season of eligibility. QB Alan Bowman enters as one of 13 incoming transfers after spending the past two seasons as a reserve at Michigan, after toiling three years with Texas Tech, where he’ll battle Gunnar Gundy, Mike’s son. 

PLAY ON: as a dog at West Virginia (10/21)

Stat you will Like: Mike Gundy is 17-1 SU and 12-3 ATS in Game Three of the season, including 13-0 SU and 11-0 ATS the last 13 years.

TCU – Extra Drive  3 / 7  (7.5)

Q: So how was TCU so shockingly good last season after going 5-7 in 2021?
A: Max Duggan and Quentin Johnston. Both are now gone, which speaks volumes on a return to the norm in 2023 for the Frogs, who had their legs amputated in the College Championship Game. After watching their disappearing act against Georgia, it won’t surprise many football fans to see them home for the holidays in 2023. And that would be a mistake. Remember, for the first time in more than 20 years, the Horned Frogs started the season with a new head coach last year in fan favorite Sonny Dykes. They’ve got unfinished business in 2023.

PLAY ON: at Kansas State (10/21)

Stat you will Like: TCU is 1-15-1 ATS as a favorite of more than 3 points when coming off a SU underdog win.

TEXAS – Sleep Apnea *10 / 6 (9.5)

Under Tom Herman, the Longhorns went 25-12 in his final three seasons, finishing each of them ranked in the AP Top 25. Current head coach Steve Sarkisian is 13-12 through two seasons and hasn’t finished ranked in either one. Yes, you get the feeling Sarkisian needs a big season in 2023 or there could be a major shakeup in the making. Incoming, elite-bloodline, superstar freshman QB Arch Manning is eligible, but Sarkisian named incumbent Quinn Ewers as the Longhorns starting quarterback after the Spring Game. Another thought that keeps Sarkisian tossing and turning at night is the loss of the best running back in the nation in Bijan Robinson.

PLAY AGAINST: at Iowa State (11/18)

Stat you will Like: Texas has blown 5 double-digit leads the past two seasons – the most in the nation. 

TEXAS TECH – Wreck ‘Em *11 / 7  (7.5)

Joey McGuire’s debut at Texas Tech resulted in consecutive bowl victories for the Red Raiders for the first time in over a decade. With 11 returning starters back on offense, including QB Tyler Shough (8-1 with TTRR) and their top five receivers, they can’t wait for the season to start. Adding to the firepower, ‘The Red Behren’, QB Behren Morton, the highest-rated quarterback to sign with Texas Tech, is also in the mix. A pair of Achilles heels stick out though: Only one starter returns on defense and they were outyarded in each of the final six games last year, the last four of which were wins.

PLAY AGAINST: at Kansas (11/11)

Stat you will Like: Texas Tech enters the 2023 season as one of only 8 power-five schools to win consecutive bowl games the last two years.

UCF – Bus Trip  *8 / 7  (6.5)

The Knights have finally gone full circle, from a Division 1-AA school in the 1980s to a Division 1A program in the late ‘90s and now onto the Big 12 Conference in 2023. Leading the charge is Gus Malzahn, now in his third year as the Knights’ head coach. On the heels of a pair of 9-win seasons, Gus will have the bus loaded with 15 starters back from last year’s model, including QB John Rhys Plumlee, who passed and rushed for 2,586 yards and 862, respectively, last season. In preparation for the Big 12, Malzahn hit the portal hard, luring 19 players from Power Five conferences to Orlando the past two seasons.

PLAY AGAINST: at Cincinnati (11/4)

Stat you will Like: Gus Malzahn is 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS from Game Ten out when coming off consecutive SUATS wins.

WEST VIRGINIA – Make or Break It  6 / 7  (4.5)

It’s becoming commonplace that Neal Brown’s football team feels more comfortable hovering around mediocrity than they do swimming with the sharks. After going 35-16 in four seasons at Troy, Brown is 22-25 since moving on up with the big boys with the Mountaineers. Just as concerning is WVU’s 0-8 ITS (In The Stats) record after starting 4-0 ITS last season. Adding to the issue, much-traveled quarterback JT Daniels has packed his bags and headed to Rice. Through it all, Brown dove headfirst into the Transfer Portal, rounding up a class that ranks No. 27 overall by 247 Sports. Expect plenty of changes, with Brown sitting on an extremely hot seat.

PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Pittsburgh (9/16)

Stat you will Like: Neal Brown is 13-3 ATS in games when coming off a loss of 14 or more points.

Marc Lawrence has been providing top handicapping tips and picks at PlaybookSports.com for nearly three decades. Get his top picks and best bets here at gamblersWORLD.