2023 Conference USA Football Betting Preview

 

Upcoming season preview for CUSA – Conference USA

Shrinking Violets

The 2023 season marks the 154th anniversary of college football and the 29th season of Conference USA. After losing Marshall, Old Dominion, and Southern Mississippi to the Sun Belt Conference in 2022, the C-USA is down to 9 teams with no divisions in 2023.  With it, four new programs enter the league this season.

It appears that with college football “super conferences” in the making, the days of the C-USA appear numbered.

QB Rich

Conference-USA has developed a rich tradition of quarterbacks throughout its history. And this season figures to be up to par as well with seven of the 9 teams led by starting signal callers.

That’s on the heels of last season when the one of the most experienced groups of signal-callers in years saw nine of the 11 C-USA teams returning starting quarterbacks.

Topping this year’s list of QBs is Austin Reed of Western Kentucky. After passing up on reported large sums of money via NIL deals, Reed returns to The Hill after leading the country in passing yards a year ago.

In addition, Hank Bachmeier found his way to Louisiana Tech via the Transfer Portal. The former Boise State starter brings a wealth of experience to the Sonny Cumbie offense. Back in 2021, Bachmeier torched opposing defenses for 3,079 yards and 20 touchdowns. He’s thrown 41 career touchdowns since taking over as a true freshman in Boise.

This Is How We Bowl

After sending a Conference-USA record 8 teams to a bowl game in the 2021 season, the total dipped to just five last year.

The bad news is they lost five of the 8 contests. In fact, they stand just 5-13 SU in postseason affairs since 2000, but they are 15-6 ATS overall as double-digit bowl dogs since the league’s inception.

Note: Team write-ups are excerpts from the 2023 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide magazine – on sale at Barnes & Noble and Books A Million bookstores nationwide, or at PlaybookSports.com. All teams are listed alphabetically, by division. The numbers listed on the top line alongside the team name represents its offensive and defensive starters, and the number to the right of those (in parenthesis) designates as its opening projected season win total.

2023 CUSA PREVIEW and POINTSPREAD POWER PLAYS

Florida International – Baby Steps   *8 / 9 (3.5)

The young Panthers led the nation with a massive 64% of all starts made by underclassmen last season. Aside from being flagged for violating the child labor law, it turns out the new kids on the block are giddy with the hire last year of Mike MacIntyre, aka the “Fixer.” He inherited a team that had lost 17 games in a row to FBS opponents before steadying the ship with three wins against the same ilk in 2022. Remember, he improved a 3-22 San Jose State team to 16-9, and then led a one-win Colorado squad to the Pac-12 championship game in three years. Patience is the operative word.      

PLAY ON: at Connecticut (9/16)

Stat you will Like: Head coach Mike MacIntrye is 2-11 ATS with rest, including 0-8 ATS as a dog.

Jacksonville State – Welcome to the Show  9 / 7 (5.5)

After going 5-6 in 2021, Jacksonville State ignited last season under new head coach Rich Rodriguez, scoring at least 34 points in nine games on the way to a 9-2 record in 2022. With it Rodriguez was granted a shiny new $800K a year contract extension through 2028 as JSU now moves up to play with the big boys, becoming an FBS school in 2023. While it’s not the $5.5M a year contract former Jackson State coach Deion Sanders landed after bolting for Colorado, Rich Rod and his revolutionary spread offense is back in the game with 16 starters returning and a bevy of JUCO transfers.

PASS

Stat you will Like: Rich Rodriguez is 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS in his career when he sports a .600 exact win percentage.

Liberty – Winning at all Costs   *7 / 3  (9.5)

Jamey Chadwell, who led Coastal Carolina to a 31-6 record over the past three seasons, takes over a recently successful Liberty football program. With resources and money available, he looks to replicate his success with the Flames, having led teams to the quarterfinals of both the Division II and FCS playoff, albeit having faced sanctions during his time at Charleston Southern. He replaces Hugh Freeze, known for his own scandals. However, returning production is lacking, as the Flames rank 108th in Bill Connelly’s FBS rankings. Chadwell’s coaching ability will likely be tested this season, with his troops going just 3-9 in his first year with Coastal Carolina.

PASS

Stat you will Like: There are no Power Five teams to be found on Liberty’s schedule this season.

Louisiana Tech – On the Road Again   *8 / 6 (6.5)

Sonny Cumbie knew he had his work cut out for him last season when he inherited a three-win team, tasked with a 7-game road schedule. The Bulldogs would lose all seven of their away games while logging a respectable 3-2 mark at home. With it, Cumbie has developed a trustworthy home-road dichotomy going 4-3 outright and 5-1 ATS at home as opposed to a dismal 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS mark on the highway. Nonetheless, Cumbie went right back to work and landed 5th-year senior and four-year starting QB Hank Bachmeier of Boise State in the transfer portal. The goal this season will be to successfully navigate a 6-game road trek.   

PLAY ON: vs. Florida International (8/26)

Stat you will Like: The Bulldogs are 7-1 ATS as a dog versus .444 or fewer opponents.  

Middle Tennessee – Stock Options   5 / 9  (6.5)

After raiding the 2021 youth pool when 174 of 285 team-starts were made by underclassmen, the sixth most in the country, the Red Raiders capitalized last season behind the nation’s 4th ranked Red Zone Defense en route to consecutive bowl-winning seasons for the first time since joining FBS waters in 1999. They were also the 5th best team in the land in Net Turnover Margin. With it, Rick Stockstill enters the 2023 season as the fourth-longest tenured FBS coach, stocked with 9 starters back on defense. His biggest focus this season will be returning to a conference championship game for the first time since 2018.   

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Florida International (11/11)

Stat you will Like: Rick Stockstill is 25-8-1 ATS versus sub .200 foes, including 16-3 ATS when MTSU owns a losing record.

New Mexico State – No Buzz Kill Here   *9 / 5  (5)

ESPN’s Bill Connelly noted that Jerry Kill‘s debut season as head coach at New Mexico State was the best since Jim Wood’s 5-5 record in 1968, as the Aggies won seven games, albeit padded with a Valparaiso write-in game, and ended a four-year bowl drought. Kill has a history of turning programs around, such as taking Southern Illinois from 1-10 to 10-2 in two years and Northern Illinois from a losing team to 10-3 in two years. He has also brought in power-conference transfers, including former four-star quarterback Eli Stowers from Texas A&M. The defense will miss four standout linebackers, but much of the line and secondary are returning. The optimism builds in Las Cruces.

PLAY ON: as a dog at UTEP (10/18)

Stat you will Like: Jerry Kill is 14-5 ATS as a double-digit dog versus sub .800 foes.

Sam Houston – Swing On In  *7 / 8  (4)

Welcome to the Conference USA – or as it’s known today, the swinging door of FBS teams. Heading one of the six newbies in the loop is coach KC Keeler, who, during his nine-year tenure, has directed the Bearkats to an 85-26 record that includes 14 victories over top-10 ranked opponents, 14 wins in NCAA postseason action and an FCS national championship in 2020. Whew! He is also the only coach in FCS history to win national titles at multiple schools and the only coach in NCAA history to take there different programs to a national title game. That’s saying a lot. Did anyone say James Madison?

PASS

Stat you will Like: Sam Houston was an astonishing 21-1 in 2021’s two FCS seasons (spring and fall).

UTEP – Break on through to t he Other Side   *7 / 7  (5.5)

It’s clear that the Miners have been through a few tough years, with a record of just 2-34 over a three-season stretch from 2017-2019. However, under the leadership of veteran head coach Dana Dimel, they have made progress in recent years, going 13-18 over the past three campaigns. In fact, had they defeated UTSA in the final game of the 2022 season – (they lost, 34-31 as a 16.5-point road dog) – they would have earned their first bowl stripes in nine years. They return 14 starters from last year’s oh-so-close squad. Dimel’s offseason recruitment of 25 JUCO transfers shows his commitment to taking the team to the next level.

PLAY ON: vs. Louisiana Tech (9/29)

Stat you will Like: Talk about hitting the sweet spot – UTEP is 9-1 ATS as a favorite of more than 5 points.

WESTERN KENTUCKY – TOP THIS   *7 / 4  (8.5)

With three 9-win seasons, and four bowl games under his belt in four years with the Hilltoppers, it’s clear head coach Tyson Helton’s teams know how to win. With QB Austin Reed back after tossing a nation’s-best 4,744 yards and 40 TDs last season they will be anxious for more in 2023.  The high-scoring Over-the-Hill gang has ignited in the transfer portal era and brings in a pair of WR transfers from Auburn and Tennessee this season. However, two keys will be new OC Drew Hollinghead’s modified Air Raid playbook, and a defense that scored 6 TDs last season, which tied Iowa for most in the nation. 

PLAY ON: at Troy (9/23)

Stat you will Like: Tyson Helton is 18-2 SU and 16-3-1 ATS versus foes coming off a SUATS loss, including 7-0 ATS at home and 6-0 ATS as a dog.

Marc Lawrence has been providing top handicapping tips and picks at PlaybookSports.com for nearly three decades. Get his top picks and best bets here at gamblersWORLD.