2024 ACC Football Preview

By Marc Lawrence

From the 2024 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide Magazine

Clemson has ruled the ACC, winning the conference title in seven of the last nine seasons. Yet, they failed to do so in two of the last three years, thus moving them down the ladder from invincible to dispensable, a label that keeps Dabo Swinney up late at night this time of the season. That and the fact that no less than 17 teams will be vying for the championship in the Atlantic Coast Conference this season, including last year’s league champ Florida State, who got the shaft from the NCAA Playoff committee after running the table and going 13-0. As a result, the heat is on, especially with the Seminoles repeating as consecutive conference champions from 1992 to 1995, 1997 to 2000, and 2012 to 2014.

The following are excerpts from the 2024 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide magazine, on sale at Barnes & Noble and Books-A-Million, or available directly at PlaybookSports.com.

Boston College – Bob is Back – (16/8*/8) • RPR: 40

Returning QB Thomas Castellanos led the Eagles in passing (2,248) and rushing (1,113) yards last season. Lewis Bond, his main accomplice, is also back after leading the team in receptions and receiving yards. In addition, the four leading tacklers on defense are also back. Those are good starting points for a team staggered to the finish line last year. The problem is the coaching staff incurred a major bailout when head coach Jeff Hafley and three defensive coaches jumped ship, with Hafley and his DL coach heading to the Packers in the NFL. With it, veteran coach Bill O’Brien, the “teapot”, takes over to pick up the pieces.

Season Win Total: 4.5 • Odds to win the ACC: +15000

Stat You Will Like: The Eagles have been bowl-eligible in 21 of the past 25 seasons.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Florida State (9/2)

California – No Time To Hibernate – (16/ *8/8) • RPR: 14

Welcome to the ACC, Cal. Your new home away from home. The initial price the Bears will have to pay will be four ACC trips totaling 18,196 round trip miles from the Bay Area and back – and that doesn’t include the nearly 3,000-mile jaunt to and from SMU. It’s the result of the termination of the Pac-12 this season, college football’s worst collapse since the end of the Roman Empire. Yep, nothing says WTF like California in the Atlantic Coast Conference. Meanwhile, head coach Justin Wilcox welcomes 16 starters back along with loads of returning experience. To their credit, the Bears ranked No. 15 in Portal Transfer heists this season – better than Georgia, USC, and Oklahoma.

Season Win Total: 6.5 • Odds to win the ACC: +10000

Stat You Will Like: The Golden Bears are 10-0 ATS as non-conference road dogs versus Power Five opponents.

PLAY ON: at Auburn (9/7)

Clemson – I Am I Said – (14/ *9/5) • RPR: 54

The Tigers saw their impressive 12-year streak of double-digit victories snapped last season. After averaging 11.83 wins per season, they had to claw their way through a five-game, season-ending win streak just to salvage a 9-4 finish. Despite this setback, Dabo Swinney remains resolute in his ‘NTP’ policy—No Transfer Portal players allowed. They lost 13 players in the portal this offseason and signed none, sticking to their roots and leaving their portal total at just three signees since 2019. Interestingly, Michigan State’s Tom Izzo employs a similar approach. While others dip freely into the transfer portal to restock their rosters, Swinney has a bountiful reserve of returning lettermen (57 in total), led by quarterback Cade Klubnik.

Season Win Total: 9.5 • Odds to win the ACC: +400

Stat You Will Like: Clemson has won 151 games over the past 13 seasons – 2nd to Alabama’s 163 wins.

PLAY ON: vs. NC State (9/21) – *Key

Duke – Pardon the Interruption – (8/3/5) • RPR: 81

What a difference a year makes. The Blue Devils have suffered numerous losses since last season, starting with the departure of head coach Mike Elko and trickling down to integral parts of the team. Star quarterback Riley Leonard and defensive end R.J. Oben left Duke’s program to join the Fighting Irish at Notre Dame. The Blue Devils also lost defensive tackle DeWayne Carter and offensive linemen Graham Barton and Jacob Monk to the NFL draft. On top of this, some of Duke’s highest-ranked recruits decommitted after Elko’s surprise departure. With it, Manny Diaz has been given another head coach nod following a two-year stint as defensive coordinator at Penn State. Before that, he went 21-15 in his three-year tenure with Miami when the Hurricanes failed to live up to lofty expectations.

Season Win Total: 5.5 • Odds to win the ACC: +13000

Stat You Will Like: Head coach Manny Diaz is 7-1 ATS in his career as a single-digit dog.

PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. North Carolina (9/28)

Florida State – Herd It Through the Grapevine – (10/ *5/5) • RPR: 83

The Seminoles went 13-0 in the regular season but were spurned of a CFP bid because of an injury to quarterback Jordan Travis and some controversial CFP herd mentality. A wave of opt-outs left them severely shorthanded in the Orange Bowl, resulting in a record-setting blowout at Georgia’s hands. Mike Norvell promptly raided Alabama’s roster for transfer pickups this offseason en route to landing the nation’s No. 6 ranked unit in the Transfer Portal and best in the ACC, including a veteran replacement for Travis in veteran quarterback DJ Uiagalelei. However, facing ten bowlers in their first ten games of the season will put them to the test right out of the gate.

Season Win Total: 9.5 • Odds to win the ACC: +270

Stat You Will Like: Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell is 7-0 ATS in his career as a favorite against foes coming off a SUATS loss.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Clemson (10/5)

Georgia Tech – All Keyed Up – (14/ *9/5) • RPR: 46

The Brent Key era got off to a rousing start last season when the Yellow Jackets made it to their first bowl game since the 2018 season and won their first bowl game since 2016. Spearheaded by OC Buster Faulkner and Texas A&M transfer quarterback Haynes King, they had one of the country’s most improved offenses (+14 PPG and +98 YPG). The Techsters also had the top rushing offense in the ACC; they pulled off two big, ranked upsets vs. Miami and North Carolina, and if they had held onto their double-digit lead vs. Louisville, the Yellow Jackets would have been in the ACC Championship vs. Florida State.

Season Win Total: 5.5 • Odds to win the ACC: +10000

Stat You Will Like: Georgia Tech will face eleven teams this season that played in a bowl game last season.

PLAY ON: vs. Louisville (9/21)

Louisville – Brohm’s Lullaby – (19/ *9/10) • RPR: 44

Jeff Brohm’s inaugural season at Louisville exceeded even the most optimistic projections. With a 7-1 record in ACC play, the Cardinals punched their ticket to the program’s first-ever ACC Championship Game. The triumph was one for the books, but with success comes elevated expectations. It’s often expected that a sophomore slump will follow a stellar first year, as the weight of anticipation can cause a slight regression in year two. However, should Louisville face a dip in 2024, it won’t spell doom for the program. This team remains a firm ACC contender, especially with quarterback Tyler Shough relocating in and bolstering the 11th-best transfer portal class in the nation—second best in the ACC.

Season Win Total: 8.5 • Odds to win the ACC: +600

Stat You Will Like: In his eight seasons as a head coach, Jeff Brohm’s teams are 64-8 when scoring 30 or more points.

PLAY ON: at Kentucky (11/30)

Miami – Hamburger Helper – (16/ *9 /7) • RPR: 45

The “U” had to make a splash at running back after losing Henry Parrish, the team’s leading rusher the past two seasons, to Ole Miss. The school promptly earned an essential addition by signing Damien Martinez, the ex-Oregon State back who has rushed for 2,167 yards and 16 scores. Not to mention hitting a home run with QB Cam Ward, who has 13,874 yards and 119 touchdowns in his career, and WR Sam Brown (1,286 yards, 7 TDs). It largely contributed to the Canes earning the No. 12 overall ranking in this year’s Transfer Portal. Yes, the portal has been a welcome helper after Mario Cristobal’s continued faux pas on the sidelines.

Season Win Total: 9.5 • Odds to win the ACC: +430

Stat You Will Like: Mario Cristobal is 15-6 ATS in his career versus undefeated foes, including 11-1 ATS against those who allow more than 11 PPG.

PLAY ON: at Georgia Tech (11/9) – *Key

NC State – Good Call Up – (13/ *6/7) • RPR: 80

Dave Doeren made some notable additions to the Wolfpack’s offense this cycle, including wide receiver Noah Rogers from Ohio State, tailbacks Hollywood Smothers (from OU) and Jordan Waters (from Duke), and safeties Tamarcus Cooley and Donovan Kaufman to build the secondary out from. But no pickup was more valuable than quarterback Grayson McCall, quietly one of college football’s most consequential transfers, with over 10,000 passing yards and 106 all-purpose touchdowns. Last season, NC State’s two quarterbacks combined to pass for 2,504 yards with 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions and only completed 59 percent of their passes. In fairness, the Wolfpack’s limited offensive weaponry was the worst in recent history. McCall is just what the doctor ordered.

Season Win Total: 8.5 • Odds to win the ACC: +600

Stat You Will Like: The Wolfpack are 62-13 SU and 42-25-1 ATS in games where they outgain an opponent under Dave Doeren.

PLAY AGAINST: at Clemson (9/21) – *Key

North Carolina – Johnson & Johnson – (13/*6 /7) • RPR: 99

A 6-0 start last season turned sour when the Heels finished on a 2-5 slide. QB Drake Maye was picked 3rd in the NFL draft, but the Johnson brothers—QB Max and TE Jake—each a transfer from the SEC, are ready to step up. Max boasts impressive arm talent and mobility but needs to improve his decision-making. Jake, standing 6’6”, played in all 12 games for Texas A&M and will strengthen the tight end position. UNC’s defense has been a weak spot, but the new DC Geoff Collins (ex-head coach at Georgia Tech and a DC with Florida and Mississippi State) aims to change that, especially with the return of star edge rusher Kaimon Rucker.

Season Win Total: 7.5 • Odds to win the ACC: +4500

Stat You Will Like: Mack Brown is 23-1 SU and 15-6-1 ATS in his career against foes who surrender 34 or more PPG, including 23-0 versus sub .700 opponents.

PLAY ON: vs. Virginia (10/26)

Pitt – Spitting Nails – (16/ *10/6) • RPR: 53

Pat ‘Nails’ Narduzzi enters his 10th season with many questions. Last year, the Panthers joined Virginia in the ACC as one of two teams, finishing with a 3-9 overall record and going 2-6 in conference play. Being a bottom-tier ACC team is not what Pitt fans envisioned, especially after capturing the ACC crown in 2021. Not many are aware that since joining the Panthers as a head coach in 2015, only one other coach (Dabo Swinney) owns more ACC conference wins than Narduzzi’s 43 – currently tied with Dave Doeren of NC State. The bottom line is it leaves a sour taste in Narduzzi’s mouth, and he’s tough enough to do something about it.

Season Win Total: 5.5 • Odds to win the ACC: +11000

Stat You Will Like: Over the past four seasons, Pitt is 12-4 in November, with three of those losses coming last year.

PLAY ON: vs. Louisville (11/23)

SMU – Wild Horses – (14/*8/6) • RPR: 66

The Ponies gallop into the ACC behind 18 wins the past two seasons under head coach Rhett Lashlee. SMU went almost 40 years without a conference championship, and the school finally got the job done because of an investment in the defense. Despite winning the American Athletic Conference title with a dominating defensive performance in which they limited five foes to season-low yardage, the Mustangs (11-2, 8-0) were still ranked below 13-0 Liberty in the final CFP rankings ahead of the postseason. Ironically, despite being among the nation’s best Group of Five schools, the Mustangs were 0-3 against power schools last season. SMU has undergone a lot of changes in many ways.

Season Win Total: 7.5 • Odds to win the ACC: +18000

Stat You Will Like: The Mustangs are 9-1 ATS at home vs. greater than .600 opponents.

PASS

Stanford – The Air Up There – (18/*10/8) • RPR: 2

With a record of 3-9 once again for the third year in a row, Troy Taylor’s first season at the helm with Stanford was far from perfect, but it looks like the new coach might be able to build up some continuity heading into year two. It starts off with 18 starters back from last season’s squad as they begin their sojourn into the wilderness of the ACC behind the nation’s No. 2 ranked team in overall returning production. Like former Pac-12 rival California, nothing says Atlantic Coast Conference like The Tree and the Bears. Taking on nine teams that went bowling last season figures to bring the best out of Taylor’s troops.

Season Win Total: 3.5 • Odds to win the ACC: +50000

Stat You Will Like: In their four road games outside the state of California, Stanford will travel a total of 19,694 round-trip air miles.

PLAY ON: at California (11/23) – *Key as a dog

Syracuse – Time Is On My Side – (16/ *9/7) • RPR: 16

Fran Brown was a good coach and incredible recruiter for Georgia, but will his recruiting acumen translate to upstate New York? The path to his journey was cleared when the Orange finally signed divorce papers with 8-year head coach Dino Babers after an abysmal 20-45 mark in conference games under his lead. And, as we called out last year on this page, after going 1-17 (In The Stats) in conference games from 2019-2020, Syracuse is 11-7 ITS in the same games the past three seasons. Give them time, and you’ll likely be surprised. Brown was named #1 national recruiter by 247Sports.

Season Win Total: 7.5 • Odds to win the ACC: +4500

Stat You Will Like The Orange are 7-28 outright during the season’s final seven games since 2019.

PASS

Virginia – Tripped Up – (16/ *8/8) • RPR: 6

After taking the reins from Bronco Mendenhall in 2022, Cavs’ head coach Tony Elliott has endured both tragedy and pain following a pair of 3-win efforts. The first occurred when the nightmare he and the entire Virginia community had to deal with in 2022 – the team cut short its season after three players were killed in a shooting. Last season’s three-win effort was largely due to an 0-5 start to the year. This year, though the Cavaliers are loaded with returning veterans and received plenty of talent from the transfer portal, doubling the aforementioned 3-win totals this season should be in the offing.

Season Win Total: 4.5 • Odds to win the ACC: +15000

Stat You Will Like: Virginia is 2-12 ATS when coming off a SUATS loss as a favorite and facing a losing opponent.

PLAY ON: vs. Louisville (10/12)

Virginia Tech – Production Induction – (19/ *11/8) • RPR: 1

In an era of college football with roster turnover at an all-time high, Virginia Tech has worked to build a culture that stresses stability. Through it all, the Hokies posted their first winning record in four seasons in Year Three under Brent Pry in 2023, winning five of their last seven games – with three of its losses coming by one score. Breakout QB Kyron Drones keys an offense that brings nearly everyone back as VPI ranks No. 1 in Bill Connelly’s overall RPR (Returning Production Rankings). FYI: that same honor went to Kansas last season as the Jayhawks improved three full games while winning their first bowl game since 2008.

Season Win Total: 8.5 • Odds to win the ACC: +14000

Stat You Will Like: The Hokies are 10-3 ATS under Brent Pry when allowing more than 23 PPG.

PLAY ON: vs. Rutgers (9/21)

Wake Forest – Embrace the Claw – (16/ *8/8) • RPR: 73

A quick-silver 3-0 start tarnished to a disappointing 1-8 finish last season, and with it, a seven-year bowl skein went to hell for the Demons last season. That makes the Deacons a certified “mission team” this season – a team that went bowling each of the previous three years and had the bowl streak snapped last season. The good news is Dave Clawson returns with a well-stocked squad that will open the 2024 campaign with four consecutive home games, a role that he cultivates, going 15-6 ATS at home off a home game throughout his career. Unfortunately, the Forest ranked No. 105 overall in this year’s Transfer Portal. It shouldn’t matter, though, when you’re on a ‘mission.’

Season Win Total: 4.5 • Odds to win the ACC: +25000

Stat You Will Like: Head coach Dave Clawson is 9-0 ATS at home off a home game against foes coming off a loss.

PLAY ON: vs. Duke (11/30)

Marc Lawrence has been providing top handicapping tips and picks at PlaybookSports.com for nearly three decades. Get his top picks and best bets here at gamblersWORLD.