2024 NFC SOUTH PREVIEW

This 2024 NFC SOUTH Playoff Preview is presented by Playbook Sports.

The season win totals and odds to make the playoffs are from the opening lines at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas.

These write-ups were extracted from the 2024 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide magazine, on sale now at Barnes & Noble and Book-A-Million bookstores across the country, along with the Gambler’s Book Store in Las Vegas.  You can also a copy directly from Playbook when you visit PlaybookSports.com.

ATLANTA FALCONS – KISSING COUSINS

For the first time since the late ’80s, Atlanta endured a sixth consecutive losing season in 2023. If nothing else, they are consistent behind three consecutive 7-10 seasons. Don’t tell that to the sharps in Las Vegas, though. They couldn’t care less. All they know is that the Falcons have the look and feel of a team ‘moving on up.’ The rebuilding job headed by General Manager Terry Fontenot appears to be headed in the right direction, as he’s nailed nearly all of his top draft picks since his initial 2021 draft. And for the first time since Matt Ryan was in his prime, they have a thoroughbred quarterback behind center. According to the NFL adage, exciting young quarterbacks are doomed to become less efficient with age. That decree doesn’t appear to be the case with the Falcons’ latest find, Kirk Cousins, who has a 12-year career QB rating of 98.2 and has not had a QB rating of less than 92.5 since 2014. It pales in comparison to Atlanta’s combined 80 QB rating last season. Second-year RB Bijan Robinson rushed for 976 yards in his rookie season last year and is expected to assume a “Christian McCaffrey” role this season. That was more rushing yards in his rookie season than Alvin Kamara ever had during a single season.

Season Win Total: 9.5 OVER

Odds To Make Playoffs YES -250 / NO +210

Stat You Will Like: NFL teams facing the easiest Playbook Strength Of Schedule have gone 65-28 SU and 52-41 ATS the last five seasons, including 7-3 ATS as a dog.

PLAY ON: at Minnesota (12/8)

CAROLINA PANTHERS – YOUNG AND RESTLESS

When you’re the worst team in the league and your rookie QB, drafted No. 1 overall, faceplants … you better figure out how to improve the situation around him. In case you forgot, of the previous 16 quarterbacks selected 1,2 in the NFL draft – such as Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud last season – only Peyton Manning has won a Super Bowl for the team that drafted him (make sure you read that too, Bears and Commanders fans). Meanwhile, the Panthers sneaked into the back of the first round of this year’s draft to land WR Xavier Legette, who blossomed from special teams ace to bona fide star. In addition, they also have big plans for RB Jonathan Brooks (Texas) and TE Ja’Tavion “Gluefingers” Sanders from this year’s draft, as adding weapons around Young, who we see improving leaps and bounds in his sophomore season – how can he not – is Priority One for the fresh-faced Panthers. And interestingly, Young takes on Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Bo Nix within four weeks. The NFL lassoed together the rookie quarterbacks on the Panthers’ slate in 2024. We’ll learn much about Young and the Panthers after that trifecta.

Season Win Total: 5

Odds To Make Playoffs YES  +800 / NO -1400

Stat You Will Like: The Panthers are 7-1 ATS away in division games when seeking double revenge-exact, including 5-0 ATS in the last five games.

PLAY ON: at New Orleans (9/8)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS – MAKGA

While other teams took dramatic swings at turning over the roster, the Saints‘ biggest offseason infusion was bringing offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak into the fold. Kubiak is one of 17 new OCs in 2024 and should immensely aid QB Derek Carr. In addition, as noted in our NFL Preview section, Kubiak’s prime objective is simple – he must Make Alvin Kamara Great Again. Kamara did pass the 1,000 total yards mark, but his average per catch and average per carry were low. Remember, the Saints haven’t made the playoffs since Drew Brees retired (just 25-26 overall), but they have found a way to win at least seven games in each of the past three seasons, averaging 8.3 wins per season. As far as Kubiak is concerned, he has enough tools to work with. They might not be players who get the headlines, but they do the dirty work. Aside from Carr and Kamara, there is Swiss army knife Taysom Hill and under-the-radar, 6’4″ and 250-lbs New Orleans native TE Foster Moreau. This isn’t a right-wing conservative analysis. No excuses remain for Dennis Allen, who takes on an itinerary that finds only four other teams in the league with a softer strength of schedule (SOS) based on opponents’ expected wins this season.

Season Win Total: 7.5 OVER

Odds To Make Playoffs YES +180 / NO -210

Stat You Will Like: The Saints are 14-2 SUATS in their last sixteen division games when seeking same-season revenge.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Tampa Bay (10/13) 

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS – BAKER MAKER

The Westgate SuperBook sees the Bucs favored in only six games this season, yet they have a projected win total of 6.5. Vegas would have to be spot-on for that combination to work. Perhaps it’s because Tampa Bay will be seeking its fourth straight NFC South Division title, something even we were surprised to learn. QB Baker Mayfield faced the unenviable task of replacing Tom Brady, and to his blue-collar credit, he delivered. The question is: Does Mayfield have back-to-back winning playoff efforts in his DNA? From a schedule standpoint, it should be noted that the Buccaneers had an early bye during the 2023 season in Week Five and faced a grueling second-half schedule. In 2024, the team’s bye falls during an optimal mid-season range in Week 11. Heading into the bye, the Bucs will be coming off a hellacious two-week stretch against the Super Bowl LVIII opponents: the AFC Champion Kansas City Chiefs and the NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers. The ‘rest and refresh’ period will be much needed for the Bucs. For what it’s worth, Tampa will face the NFC East (8-3 outright in the last 11 games) and the AFC West (6-2 SUATS the last 8). And remember, they are just 18-19 overall in the last two seasons.

Season Win Total: 7.5 OVER

Odds To Make Playoffs YES +160 / NO -180

Stat You Will Like:  QB Baker Mayfield is 12-24-2 ATS as a favorite in the NFL, including 0-5-1 ATS versus .666 or greater foes.

PLAY ON: at Detroit ((9/15)

The 2024 NFC South Playoff Preview is presented by Playbook Sports, where Marc Lawrence has been providing top handicapping tips and picks for nearly three decades. Get his top picks and best bets here at gamblersWORLD.