2024 SEC Football Preview

By Marc Lawrence

From the 2024 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide Magazine

SEC media members were asked to predict the SEC champion and regular-season order of finish.

Alabama is the defending SEC champion. Media members expect another team to take the crown in Atlanta this December.

Georgia was the overwhelming pick to win the SEC title, receiving 165 votes. Texas came in second with 27, followed by Alabama with 12. Check out the latest SEC Championship odds to see how oddsmakers view the conference title race.

School	Votes
Georgia	165
Texas	27
Alabama	12
Ole Miss	4
Vanderbilt	2
LSU	2
South Carolina	1

Check out the latest SEC Championship odds 

While it’s not hard to understand why Georgia, a regular presence in the conference championship game under Kirby Smart, is the favorite, it might not be the best news for the Bulldogs. 

The SEC notes that only nine times since 1992 has the predicted champion before the season at SEC Media Days proceeded to win the SEC Championship Game if you’re keeping score, that 9-for-34.

The following are excerpts from the 2024 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide magazine, on sale at Barnes & Noble and Books-A-Million, or available directly at PlaybookSports.com.

Alabama – STILL THE BEST – (12 / *6 / 6 ) • RPR: 98

Dominance defines teams at the pinnacle of success, though the term is often overused. However, it perfectly describes the Crimson Tide. CFB Matchups revealed the historical records of Power Five teams against AP-ranked No. 1 opponents. Alabama is the only program with a winning record (11-6) against No. 1 teams, with Miami as the closest at 9-10. Sure, Nick Saban has left the building, but for the most part, his recruits, including QB Jalen Milroe, remain committed. We’re big fans of Kalen DeBoer and would be shocked if anything less than playing in this season’s SEC title game is off the table for the Tide.

Season Win Total: 9.5 • Odds To Win SEC: +950

Stat You Will Like: Alabama owns more national titles (10) than any team in the nation and twice as many as its nearest rivals, Miami and USC. 

PLAY AGAINST: at Tennessee (10/19)

Arkansas – FIT TO BE HOG TIED – (17 / *10 / 7) • RPR: 69

You may have tied for tops in the FBS in Defensive TDs last season, but when you cough up 24 or more points in eight of nine games against Power Four teams, you’re not going very far. And such it was for the defenseless Hogs last season, a team that had won 16 games the previous two campaigns under head coach Sam Pittman. Expect either transfer QB Taylen Green, who has been with Boise State for three years, or Malachi Singleton, a four-star dual-threat quarterback, behind center this season. While the loss of three-year starting QB KJ Jefferson to UCF looks to be a major blow, the fact of the matter is he was just 20-19 in the games he started.  

Season Win Total: 4.5 • Odds To Win SEC: +20000

Stat You Will Like: Arkansas is 9-1 ATS with rest and revenge in conference games (LSU) since 2014.

PLAY ON: as a dog vs. LSU (10/19)

Auburn – A NEW DAY ON THE PLAINS – (16 / *9 / 7) • RPR: 40

After savoring seven-plus wins every season from 2013-19, it’s since been a four-year glut for the Tigers, including three seven-loss efforts the past three years. That will soon change with Auburn’s new-look core of wide receivers. It’s a part of Hugh Freeze’s plan to take important steps to revitalize the Tigers’ talent base, both on the recruiting front and in the transfer portal. Auburn’s recruiting class started just inside the top 100 nationally but finished in the top 25 on Signing Day. In particular, Freeze hit up the SEC in the portal, including Mississippi (linebacker Austin Keys), Kentucky (five-star defensive lineman Justin Rogers), LSU (linebacker DeMario Tolan), and Vanderbilt (edge rusher Elijah McCallister). 

Season Win Total: 7.5 • Odds To Win SEC: +5000

Stat You Will Like: Hugh Freeze is 17-8 ATS as a dog vs. the SEC – including 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS when taking fewer than 7 points.

PASS

Florida – TICK TOCK – (15 / *9 / 6) • RPR: 32

It can get warm at the swamp in Gainesville, which is mighty warm, where the temperature has been turned up this season. Third-year head coach Billy Napier is still searching for a winning campaign following a disappointing 5-7 effort in 2023. In his first season with Florida, Napier’s Gators finished the 2022 regular season at 6-7, mirroring the same effort they put forth in 2021. By our math, that marks three straight losing seasons—the first time Swamp people have witnessed such a spectacle since 1945-47. One has to go back to 1935-38 to find the last (and only) time the Gators football program was held underwater for four successive seasons. Billy Napier, you’re on the clock!

Season Win Total: 4.5 • Odds To Win SEC:+12000

Stat You Will Like: Florida head coach Billy Napier is 9-2 SUATS as a dog of fewer than 5 points in his career.

PLAY ON: at Florida State (11/30)

Georgia – BEWARE OF THE DOG – (14 / *7 / 7) • RPR: 47

Once again, for the second-straight year, the Dawgs were right at the top of the list—10 this year, as opposed to 15 last year—of players lost in the NFL draft. In fact, in the last four NFL drafts, the talent-rich SEC has seen 242 players pilfered by the NFL. Fortunately, senior QB Carson Beck returns to lead Georgia after posting a 13-1 record in his first year as the Bulldogs’ starting quarterback in 2023. He was a Manning Award finalist after finishing 5-1 versus top-20 opponents with a 73.9 completion percentage (125-of-169) for 1,693 yards. Beck’s return is bolstered by the fact that four of five starters on the line return. 

Season Win Total: 10.5 • Odds To Win SEC: +185

Stat You Will Like: The Bulldogs are 46-2 overall in their last 48 games, favored in 47.

PLAY ON: at Alabama (9/28) – *Key as a dog

Kentucky – A STOOPS REGROUP – (16 / 6 / 10) • RPR: 14

Following two disappointing 7-6 seasons, Wildcats’ head coach Mark Stoops aims to establish a quarterback capable of returning them to their previous 10-win success under QB Will Levis in 2021. Brock Vandagriff, a high-profile Georgia transfer with a strong arm, appears set to take the helm. Protecting him is Marques Cox, an offensive lineman who started all 13 games in 2023 and returns for his seventh and final college season. On defense, DT Deone Walker, fresh off a breakout 2023 season with 24 consecutive starts under his belt, is recognized as one of the nation’s top defensive linemen entering 2024. Stoops may have taken a pair of standing 7-counts lately, but he’s not about to lie down anytime soon.

Season Win Total: 6.5 • Odds To Win SEC: +9000

Stat You Will Like: Kentucky started more freshmen than any team in the nation two seasons ago.

PLAY ON: vs. Georgia (9/14)

LSU – SWELLING INSURRECTION – (12 / 6 / 6) • RPR: 60

Is there a talent wave taking place in the FBS-dominant SEC these days? There will be once each of the remaining Power Four conferences peak out with new members. The truth is we have seen a gradual decline in the SEC the past three seasons, and it’s been dramatic when you consider the league saw 50 players selected in this year’s NFL draft, as opposed to 65 in 2021. This means that the Transfer Portal has left its mark. Tigers head coach Brian Kelly welcomes back a dozen starters from his second consecutive 10-win unit looking to hold serve before the full wrath of the conference realignment tsunami hits. 

Season Win Total: 9.5 • Odds To Win SEC: +1000

Stat You Will Like: Brian Kelly is 18-7 SUATS when not favored by more than 8 points when his team owns the better record.

PASS

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Mississippi State – WALK IN MY SHOES – (8 / *4 / 4) • RPR: 116

The Zach Arnett experiment lasted only eleven games in 2023 when Mississippi State fired Mike Leach’s replacement. Arnett, 37, was in the first of a four-year contract (the maximum allowed under Mississippi state law) and had big shoes to fill. He began the season as the SEC’s youngest head coach and the first of Hispanic descent in league history. Jeff Lebby, a former offensive assistant coach at Oklahoma, Baylor, and UCF, steps in to inject new energy and innovation into the program, emphasizing a fast-paced, high-scoring offense. Note: from the “nothing that you love is sacred” files: the annual ‘Egg Bowl’ game with Ole Miss, played on Thanksgiving Day for the past seven years, will switch to Black Friday this season.

Season Win Total: 4.5 • Odds To Win SEC: +30000

Stat You Will Like: Ole Miss, the Bulldogs’ opponent on Black Friday this season, is 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS since 1997 on Fridays.

PASS

Missouri – DRINKING THE KOOL-AID – (14 / *9 / 5) • RPR: 17

The eye of this tiger was squarely on the ball last when Eliah Drinkwitz’s squad took on 11 foes that played in bowl games the previous season – and came away a winner in ten of the contests. Next to that, this year’s itinerary will be like a walk in the park, with only five bowlers dotting the schedule. On the heels of an 11-win campaign after failing to produce a winning season in any of the previous four years, the real question is how much of a letdown could be in order in 2024. And for what it’s worth, Tigers WR Luther Burden III has Deebo Samuel written all over him. 

Season Win Total: 9.5 • Odds To Win SEC: +1500

Stat You Will Like: The team in Missouri’s last 60 games who wins the overall yardage stats is 54-6 (20-0 last 20).

PASS

Oklahoma – BOOM OR BUST – (12 / 5 / 8) • RPR: 54

QB Dillon Gabriel, the Hawaiian southpaw, first rose to semi-national prominence at UCF. He transferred to OU last season to reunite with his former Knights offensive coordinator, Jeff Lebby. Unfortunately, despite hitting the transfer portal with both fists, including the addition of wide receiver Deion Burks from Purdue, who looks to be a huge transfer pickup for the Sooners, Brent Venables got in the way, and $10M later, Gabriel will be hurling for Oregon this season. That’s not good news when you are transferring into the craggy SEC. Or when your team is just 1-6 ATS against SEC foes that are coming off a SUATS win. It will all come down to how the Sooners manage the final three-game November stretch, which will likely tell the story of their season.

Season Win Total: 7.5 • Odds To Win SEC: +4000

Stat You Will Like: Oklahoma was 39-1 in regular season games when coming off a loss before Venables arrived. They are 3-4 under him in this role.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Tennessee (9/21)

Ole Miss – REBEL WITH A CAUSE – (18 / *9 / 9) • RPR: 68

Is this the year the Rebels finally break through to the other side? For openers, they won 11 games last season for the first time in school history and, as a result, finished the 2023 season ranked No. 9, their highest final AP poll ranking since 1969 when they finished eighth. Ole Miss returns 62 letter winners from last year’s squad that closed the season with a 38-25 win over No. 10 Penn State in the 2023 Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. And finally, there’s a reason they call Lane Kiffin the Portal King… he addressed the loss of two-time SEC leading rusher Quinshon Judkins’ departure by adding three tailbacks, including former Miami star Henry Parrish. Again.

Season Win Total: 9.5 • Odds To Win SEC: +650

Stat You Will Like: The outright winner in the stats in Ole Miss contests last season was a perfect 13-0.

PASS 

South Carolina – SELLERS MARKET – (15 / 7 / 8) • RPR: 59

Following a 2-6 start to the ’23 season, the Gamecocks closed out the campaign on a positive 3-1 winning note. Meanwhile, four of their seven losses came against teams that finished the season ranked in the Associated Press Top 20. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers, the heir apparent to Spencer Rattler in garnet and black, is a physical freak of an athlete (6’3″ and 240 pounds… 4.4 in the 40-yard dash) with a cannon for an arm. However, while expectations are high for what Sellers can accomplish in Columbia, not everyone in the college football world shares the same optimism with the Carolina Faithful. A bounceback by Shane Beamer’s bunch appears in order this season.  

Season Win Total: 5.5 • Odds To Win SEC: +10000

Stat You Will Like: Head coach Shane Beamer is 13-3 SU and 12-3 ATS against foes coming off a loss.

PLAY AGAINST: at Kentucky (9/7)

Tennessee – HEUP IT UP – (11 / 5 / 6) • RPR: 94

They’ll be rockin’ on Rocky Top for the second straight year, with the Vols’ home games a complete sellout. It’s the third time in the past 23 seasons that UT has sold out of its football season ticket inventory. This comes on the heels of the Volunteers leading the SEC in average home attendance (101,915) for the 2023 season. The Vols will open as a dog in their first SEC contest this season at Oklahoma in what amounts to a homecoming for head coach Josh Heupel, who played the final two years of his college career at Oklahoma in 1999-2000, where he won a national championship and also finished runner-up in the Heisman Trophy balloting.   

Season Win Total: 9.5 • Odds To Win SEC: +1100

Stat You Will Like: The Vols have averaged 11.2 points in the first quarter of the past three seasons, the best in the FBS.

PLAY ON: vs. Florida (10/12)

Texas – HOOKED ‘EM GOOD – (15 / *7 / 8) • RPR: 25

The deeply talented Longhorns were pillaged in the 2024 NFL draft when 11 players heard their names called. In fact, only Michigan lost more (13).  And there is little doubt that 6-foot-4, 325-pound OT Kelvin Banks figures to follow in those same shoes. Alas, Hook ‘Em poached good talent from the Transfer Portal, hauling down the nation’s fifth-best class, including four all-huge targets for quarterback Quinn Ewers to work within the school’s SEC debut. Ewers will need to stay in his ‘A’ game after young phenom quarterback Arch Manning put on a show in Texas’ spring game, throwing for a show-stealing 355 yards and three touchdowns.

Season Win Total: 10.5 • Odds To Win SEC: +310

Stat You Will Like: Head coach Steve Sarkisian is 17-4 ATS after allowing more than 36 points.

PLAY ON: vs. Oklahoma (10/12)

Texas A&M – STRENGTH IN NUMBERS – (18 / *9 / 9) • RPR: 18

Once again, the Aggies lead the SEC in RPR – Returning Production Rankings – thanks mostly to recently fired head coach Jimbo Fisher, who reeled in the top recruiting class in the nation two seasons ago. They also played with a deck full of returning starters last season (20), leaving the cupboard well-stocked for new head coach Mike Elko, who knocked it out of the park when he got in front of the transfer exodus reeling in the 4th-ranked portal class. He also hit a major home run by hiring the nation’s premier strength and conditioning coach, Tommy Moffitt, whose teams have won three national championships, including LSU in 2019. 

Season Win Total: 8.5 • Odds To Win SEC: +2000

Stat You Will Like: The last National Championship by Texas A&M was in 1939 and it’s been a quarter-century since the Aggies have won a conference title under then-Head coach R.C. Slocum.

PLAY ON: vs. LSU (10/26)

Vanderbilt – ADMIT ONE – (13 / *6 / 7) • RPR: 57

Meet the only SEC school with zero players invites to the NFL Combine. Florida was almost as bad, with just two players getting invited. After losing its top three quarterbacks to the transfer, Four-star Utah transfer Nate Johnson committed to Vanderbilt. So, how hard is it to get into Vanderbilt as a transfer student? Vandy accepts 25.24% of transfer applicants, which is competitive. To have a shot at transferring to Vanderbilt University, you should have a current GPA of at least 3.83 – ideally, your GPA will be around 3.98. Nonetheless, the Commodores ranked No. 37 overall in this year’s Transfer Portal list, higher than LSU, Michigan, and Notre Dame. 

Season Win Total: 2.5 • Odds To Win SEC: +50000

Stat You Will Like:  Vanderbilt surrendered 8.8, 9.6, and 12.2 points per game in the 1Q the past three seasons, the most in the FBS.

Marc Lawrence has been providing top handicapping tips and picks at PlaybookSports.com for nearly three decades. Get his top picks and best bets here at gamblersWORLD.