2025 Spring Training Reports from the Cactus League in Arizona – Part 2

2025 Spring Training Reports from the Cactus League in Arizona – Part 2

GamblersWORLD’s writer and handicapper Doug Upstone lives in the 48th State of Arizona. Doug’s in the heart of baseball action for Spring Training and for years has done reports and videos on all the teams in the greater Phoenix area. Here is Part 2 of Doug’s reports covering the other teams, showing their last odds and free picks.

Milwaukee Brewers

*Win NL Central +250 (2nd)  *Win NL +2200 (8th)

*Win World Series +5000 (T19th)  *Season Win Total – Un 83.5 -115

The Milwaukee Brewers have been to the playoffs in six of the last seven years and won three of the last four NL Central titles. That’s very good for a small market team in terms of efficiency. However, they have not gotten to the NLCS since 2018. If the goal is to compete to win a division title and be a good team, that’s fine. But after a while, is that enough for Brewers fans? It’s going to have to be.

Milwaukee is similar to other Midwestern teams that place value on getting people to the ballpark by winning (Cleveland and Minnesota) but don’t believe they have the resources to go all in to reach the World Series. While there is truth in that thinking, doesn’t that limit your potential to maybe try once or twice if you seem to have all the parts?

Regardless, the Brew Crew has largely turned over its roster with a blend of experienced veterans and talented youngsters. Milwaukee scored 777 runs, the most that they had scored since 2009 (785). Only the Dodgers (+156) and Yankees (+147) had a better run differential than the Crew (+136).

The loss of Willy Adames is massive, but manager Pat Murphy believes Jackson Chourio is a superstar soon and others will pick up for Adames. The starting staff and bullpen have questions. But this organization finds pitchers and the last two skippers have made it work. Let’s go OVER 83.5, competing for another NL Central title.

Cincinnati Reds

*Win NL Central +650 (4th)  *Win NL +5000 (10th)

*Win World Series +9000 (22nd)  *Season Win Total – Ov 78.5 -105

If you watched these videos over the years, I’ve talked about teams making huge strides and falling back temporarily or the opposite being true. After winning a mere 62 games in 2022, Cincinnati jumped to 82 wins. That brought expectations for a young squad last year and they regressed to 77. The possibility exists for another leap forward in the Queen City.

It starts with Terry Francona taking over as manager, evidently with health issues solved. Like what he had in Cleveland, Francona has a star in Elly De La Cruz. The additions of Gavin Lux and Austin Hays should boost the offense and if Matt McLain can return to his 2023 after missing last season due to shoulder surgery, this could turn into a Top 10 offense, which is possible because Great American Ball Park has small dimensions.  

The addition of Brady Singer breaks up opposing teams seeing Hunter Greene’s hard stuff, then a collection of starters trying to fool you. That added power arm to blend with Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, and possibly Nick Martinez. The Cincy front office has missed judged several up-and-coming starters relegated to the bullpen with results.

The NL Central is wide open and if Francona can teach them to win, the Reds are a nice division pick and OVER play.

Chicago Cubs

*Win NL Central +125 (1st)  *Win NL +1000 (7th)

*Win World Series +3000 (T15th)  *Season Win Total – O/U 85.5 (O-115)

With the NL Central weakened by player movement, advancing age, youth, and other factors, the Chicago Cubs by default are the favorites to win the NL Central, despite a win total of 85.5. Cubs fans have a strong disdain for owner Tom Ricketts for not bringing in more free agents who could positively impact the team and move up the NL food chain.

Yet, with the splashy hire of Craig Counsell to run the club on the field, most would agree last year’s team underachieved. At least they got Kyle Tucker, who’s one of the best hitting outfielders in baseball. Ian Happ is a steady performer and Pete Crow-Armstrong needs to walk more and spray the ball because he’s a walking double if on base. Dansby Swanson has been a mild disappointment and needs to play the way he did the last couple of seasons in Atlanta.

The Cubs starting staff in theory doesn’t look bad, but lacks harder throwers the opposing team will fear. Justin Steele needs a repeat of 2023 when he was exceptional at 16-5 with a 3.06 ERA. There is potential with the staff and the same goes for the bullpen with live arms and Counsell has to do a better job of managing this group.

Maybe a lean on the OVER 85.5. with no value to win the division.

Texas Rangers

*Win AL West +225 (2nd)  *Win AL +900 (T4th)

*Win World Series +2500 (T9th)   *Season Win Total – O/U 85.5 -110

It was hardly a surprise that Texas, who got hot late in 2023 and ended up winning their first World Series, would come back to the pack last season. However, to fall to a losing record of 78-84 was a stunner. Injuries from the start of the season occurred to several players that helped propel them to having down years.

Look for the Rangers’ offense to bounce back this year because there are too many good bats in the lineup led by Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, and Marcus Semien. Outfielders Wyatt Lanford and Evan Carter should settle in and this should be a Top 10 scoring offense after finishing #18 last season.

An argument could be made that Texas has the best starting staff in the AL outside of Seattle 1-5. Another argument could be at various points this season, three of those five starters will be on the IL. With a so-so bullpen, the starting staff has to come through.

Texas is solid to win the AL West and surpass their win total if the pitching staff holds up.

L.A. Angels

*Win AL West +3000 (TLast)  *Win AL +12000 (14th)   *Season Win Total – Ov 71.5 -120

While Angels fans want to hope they hit rock bottom last year in losing a franchise-worst 99 games, optimism is not high for this franchise. Sure, reaching 72 wins would be a nine-game improvement over 2024, but that would still be losing 90 times.

Arte Moreno has been a terrible owner, with his impulses to spend money on the wrong free agents or keep the vault completely shut. Anyways, he was somewhat better this off-season Jorge Soler, Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson, Travis d’Arnaud, J.D. Davis, Yusei Kikuchi, Kyle Hendricks, and Kenley Jansen are all big-league names with some pedigree. At the same time, the majority of these players are past their prime.

What would cheer up Halos fans is seeing Mike Trout in the lineup card 140+ times this year having played 36, 119, 82, and 29 games over the last four seasons. If he plays, even at 33, he makes everyone else better.

When you lose 99 games, pitching is a good chunk as the reason why. Angels’ pitchers were 26th in ERA and 29th in FIP last season. Kikuchi becomes the ace and he throws strikes but when he’s off, look out! Kyle Hendricks, Tyler Anderson, and Reed Detmers don’t throw hard, which makes the emergence of Jose Soriano so important.

Hitting 72 wins feels optimistic unless everything falls into place, thus a lean UNDER.

Seattle Mariners

*Win AL West +250 (3rd)  *Win AL +1100 (7th)

*Win World Series +2800 (12th)  *Season Win Total – Ov 84.5 -110

If you think of the big-money franchises, they would have undoubtedly spent money to bring in a big bat or two to support the pitching staff in Seattle. Yet they didn’t, leaving the Mariners hoping to reach the postseason instead of expecting to.

The M’s finished 29th in batting average, 15th in on-base percentage, and 22nd in OPS and returned largely the same contingent. So unless five players have career years, the path to the playoffs goes through the lineup card instead of this elite starting staff. Seattle jettisoned four players in the past two seasons that struck out nearly one-third of the time. Almost miraculously they still led the AL in fanning last season. It seems the approach is way off because they are not on base or scoring.

The pitching could hardly be better, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and Luis Castillo all had ERAs of 3.64 or lower and FIPs of 3.91 or lower. There were 29 starters total that qualified for the ERA title and had a 3.64 or lower and Seattle had four of them. That is extreme dominance. Yet, as we know, great health to starting pitching doesn’t always work out, so who knows what this year will bring.

The offense can hardly be any worse and it’s unlikely the starting staff will be as good. OVER 84.5 seems possible, but hardly a sure thing. And reaching division champs is a possibility if they can outperform Houston and Texas against bottom-feeders the Angels and A’s.

Athletics

*Win AL West +3000 (T-Last)  *Win AL +10000 (13th)  *Season Win Total – Un 71.5 -110

For all that’s wrong about the Athletics ownership, the move to Sacramento before going to Las Vegas makes talking points less negative. The A’s made a big improvement from 50 to 69 games last year and though they are playing in a minor league park for three years, it’s better than what they had in Oakland.

Expect the park to favor the offense and be less pitcher-friendly. DH Brent Rooker looks like the real deal after hitting 39 homers and slashed .293/.365/.562. The A’s hit 196 homers last year, which helps explain their improvement, now collectively they need more discipline at the plate to walk more and strikeout less.

Signing Luis Severino and Jeff Springs adds somewhat familiar names to A’s starting staff. Springs barely pitched the past two years while Severino tossed 182 innings with the Mets, his most since 2016. JP Sears and Joey Estes will have their moments.

If the Green and Gold can reach the 9th inning with a lead, hard-throwing Mason Miller averaged 14.4 Ks per nine innings in 2024. Miller was 31 of 38 in save chances last year.

I’d recommend passing on season wins after such a large increase. But the Over is the only consideration because the Angels look worse.

Get more MLB betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.