2025 Spring Training Reports from the Grapefruit League

2025 Spring Training Reports from the Grapefruit League

No, our Doug Upstone didn’t go to Florida after covering the Spring Training in Arizona. Nonetheless, Doug researched the best clubs in the Grapefruit League and has reports and betting tips.

 Baltimore Orioles

*Win AL East +270 (2nd)  *Win AL +650 (3rd)

*Win World Series +1600 (7th)  *Season Win Total – Ov 87.5 -115

For the first half of last season, Baltimore looked possibly even better than the club that had won 101 games the year prior. When injuries depleted the starting pitching, instead of trading for help, the Orioles front office stood still. The hitters started pressing and the Birds lost their way.

You have to go back to 1969-71 to find when Baltimore made it to the playoffs in three consecutive years. Based on the lack of pitching moves and losing their ace Corbin Burnes, are the O’s going upward or stuck in neutral?

Grayson Rodriguez inherits the ace title. Does Zach Eflin, or Charlie Morton move the needle for anyone? Help could be on the way later this season in Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers, and Tomoyuki Sugano, who has shown he can get batters out with grounders overseas. If everyone is healthy in the bullpen by mid-May, that would help.

The Orioles hitters need to return the previous approach and spray the ball all over the field instead of trying to pull everything. The talent is there.

As we’ve said over and over, if the pitching rises to the occasion, Baltimore can win the division and possibly more but is too iffy for anything on them right now.

New York Yankees

*Win AL East +135 (1st)  *Win AL +330 (1st) to

*Win World Series +950 (3rd)  *Season Win Total – Un 89.5 -120

The New York Yankees enter this season as the defending American League champions. They were disappointed by their World Series performance last fall, unable to showcase their talents in clutch situations. There was a significant change in the Yankees roster, notably Juan Soto moving crosstown to join the Mets. While that left a giant hole in the batting order, the franchise appears to use the saving of money wisely and every sportsbook has the Yanks favored to repeat.

Besides Soto walking, other notable leaves were RP Clay Holmes, 1B Anthony Rizzo, 2B Gleyber Torres, and Nestor Cortes among others. In their place, GM Brian Cashman added SP Max Fried, 1B Paul Goldschmidt, and traded for OF Cody Bellinger and closer Devin Williams.

Fried and Goldschmidt are upgrades over their predecessors. Williams had a few more problems last year with Milwaukee, but Holmes also declined, so at worst it’s a push. Bellinger helps balance the lineup with a left-handed bat and improves the outfield defense by moving Aaron Judge back to right field. Overall, this feels like a win.

Offensively, the power bats are still in place. What could make this a more versatile offense is Jazz Chisholm Jr., Anthony Volpe, and DJ LeMahieu/Oswaldo Cabrera having higher on-base percentages, allowing Aaron Judge and others to drive them in.

With Gerrit Cole done and Luis Gil out till midseason, the New York starting pitching is in rough shape. As far as the bullpen, Aaron Boone and company almost always have a Top 5 bullpen by June.

The Bronx Bombers are another club better suited to make in-season futures bets rather than now.

Boston Red Sox

*Win AL East +350 (3rd)  *Win AL +9 (T4th)

*Win World Series +2000 (8th)  *Season Win Total –  86.5 -110

The Boston Red Sox ownership decided to get back “in the game”. The game we are referring to is – winning. Since posting 92 victories in 2021, Boston’s ownership had stated they were “reeling back” expenditures and the next two years they won 78 games in 2022 and 2023.

The Red Sox signed Alex Bregman, burgeoning ace Garrett Crochet, and World Series pitching hero Walker Buehler to return to at least a division contender.

The Red Sox approach in 2024 was far different than your typical offense playing in Fenway Park. Boston moved back into the Top 10 in scoring at #9 last year. They were #9 in homers and #4 in total bases.

What was different about this collection of players was their speed. Instead of just banging balls off the Green Monster, this group put vast numbers of balls into the gaps and led the majors in doubles. Additionally, Boston had 144 stolen bases, which was #7 in the big leagues.

Why the doubles and stolen bases matter is that works both home and away and you place more pressure on opposing clubs with this kind of attack. Having Bregman as a consistent run-producer helps Raphael Devers. This should permit the offense to take the next step and if Trevor Story and Triston Casas can return to career norms after injury, all the better.

If Crochet and Buehler work out, that takes Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck, and Kutter Crawford from the top of the rotation to the middle and back end, where they are a better fit. If Lucas Giolito can stay injury-free, that makes the staff stronger. The BoSox bullpen finished dead last in ERA by 0.6 runs at 5.45. Management determined more swing and miss hurlers were needed.

If the overall pitching is just average, the defense makes fewer miscues, and hitters have more discipline at the dish, Boston can win the AL East. From there, it’s about execution.

New York Mets

*Win NL East +240 (3rd)  *Win NL +700 (4th)

*Win World Series +1200 (T4th)  *Season Win Total –  90.5 -110

People can complain about the Los Angeles Dodgers spending millions of dollars to win a World Series and they accomplished it last season. But let’s give the New Mets their due. Like the Dodgers, Mets ownership wants those same rings and after pushing Los Angeles to six games in the NLCS, they signed arguably the best young hitter in baseball, Juan Soto. Spending large sums of money doesn’t guarantee you a championship, but spending less than the league mean average scale all but precludes you from having any real chance.

Last season the Mets were #7 in scoring in the Majors. With the addition of Soto, they are projecting the Blue and Orange to have the second-best lineup card behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. This includes the likes of Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Mark Vientos, Jesse Winker, and Soto.

New York will start the season with two starters on the shelf. They are Sean Manaea (oblique) and Sean Manaea (lat). Kodai Senga will be at the top of the rotation after making two starts in the postseason and one in the regular season because of an injury in 2024.  David Peterson was a terrific #5 starter with superior results compared to what you think you are seeing. Former Yankees closer Clay Holmes expects to join the rotation in a grand experiment. Holmes has four MLB starts to his name, the last in 2018.

The question coming in is who are the Mets? Are they the lackluster contingent that started 29-37? Or were they underachieving and more like the crew that was 61-36 and played for the NL championship?

With a dynamic lineup, an ordinary-looking starting staff, with a possible upside, and an above-average bullpen; maybe they recreate last year. We just wouldn’t bet on it.

Philadelphia Phillies

*Win NL East +215 (2nd)  *Win NL +650 (3rd)

*Win World Series +1200 (T4th)  *Season Win Total – Un 91.5 -120

It’s not all or nothing for Philadelphia to win the World Series, however, noting the roster makeup and the money tied up, it’s awfully close. The Phillies roster is not old, but several key players in their lower 30s are still capable of having a career year, but far from a sure thing if they were four years younger.

While the talk of baseball when it comes to starting pitching is Seattle, don’t sell Philadelphia short. Returning Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez, Aaron Nola, and Ranger Suarez to form one of the best rotations in baseball and the National League. If the Phils can have Jesus Luzardo return from 2022-23 with Miami,  they might truly have something. Luzardo was injured all of last year.

The bullpen has become a strength for Philadelphia, other than the postseason the last couple of years.

It’s hard to argue with having the 5^th-best scoring offense in baseball, but with the recent post-season cold spells, that’s what people remember. Despite the success, Nick Castellanos has never been the player he was in Detroit or with the Cubs. Trea Turner can get blistering hot, but his slumps the last two years are more pronounced, with the same true of Kyle Schwarber.

As far as betting, nobody can say it’s a bad bet not to lay down cash on the Phillies for wins, division, and NL championship, but after the last two years, what is less certain is how they will respond to Fall pressure.

Atlanta Braves

*Win NL East +115 (1st)  *Win NL +425 (2nd)

*Win World Series +750 (2nd)  *Season Win Total – Ov 93.5 -120

After having nearly perfect health from its everyday lineup in 2023, Atlanta was the victim of the baseball gods. The Braves had injuries everywhere and though some were not debilitating enough for a player to go on the IL, it sapped him of playing full tilt and restricted his production.

Atlanta hopes for a return to normal because its regular starting eight is as good as any in baseball. We discovered more than a half-dozen scouts said the Braves have four of five individuals who would be the best player on at least 20 different teams.

The Bravos offense tallied 243 fewer runs a year ago. That is a number hard to fathom. Will Atlanta offensively get back to 2023, unlikely. When you look at the career numbers of players for the Braves, nearly the entire group had a career season. It’s more likely Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Marcell Ozuna, and Ronald Acuna among others will have normal to somewhat above-average seasons.

Chris Sale will not duplicate his Cy Young season. Mex Fried is gone but Spencer Strider is back and it’s impossible to determine if Reynaldo Lopez has for sure rediscovered his swing-and-miss slider. Strider’s absence was Spencer Schwellenbach’s moment to break out. The bullpen has a mixture of hard-chuckers and quirky deliveries and they all miss bats.

In a rugged division, hard not to like Atlanta for any wager, you just need a sense of normalcy to return.

Houston Astros

*Win AL West +125 (1st)  *Win AL +650 (2nd)

*Win World Series +1500 (6th)  *Season Win Total – Un 87.5 -115

Starting in 2017, the Houston Astros made four trips to the World Series with a core group of players winning twice and losing two times in the Fall Classic. Houston ownership in that period was always aggressive. By moving Kyle Tucker and letting Alex Bregman sign in Boston, there are winds of change in H-Town.

Many of the pieces that Houston depended on are still in place, but there are now holes in the 26-man roster we have not seen in a decade.

After a 12-24 start in 2024, Houston still reached 88 wins and another AL West title. Subtracting Bergman and Tucker does matter. Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker can add to the batting order of Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez. If Walker and Paredes hit, Houston could repeat as a Top 11 scoring offense. With Altuve’s fielding decline, he’s moving to left field, which does not sound good. Nonetheless, the rest of the outfield defense is above average and the infield defense could be better.

The Astros could do worse than having Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti, a quality front four of a staff.

The bullpen is no longer a strength for Houston. Closer Josh Hader, despite being only 30, isn’t close to his prior self, with lower velocity and less movement on breaking pitches. Like the team itself, the ‘Stros pen will slide down another notch or two.

Can Houston win the AL West again? Yes, because Seattle didn’t address its offense and Texas has a House of Cards starting staff. In truth, there is no value or great reason to back Houston, whose best days are behind them.

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