Nothing frustrates an NFL coach more than turnovers. Safe to say those frustrations carry over to sports bettors, whose opponent is the sportsbooks. A turnover changes the dynamic of a game, costs teams field position, points, affects time of possession, play calling and the emotional makeup of a team. Whether it’s 20, 30 or 40 yards of field position, the impact of turnovers is significant, and really the most impactful statistic in pro football. Turnovers differentials on games with a 2 or 3 or greater spread can have a dramatic effect on NFL betting results.
Impactful Turnovers
In Week 13, teams with a plus-2 (+2) or greater turnover differential went a combined 7-0 ATS. The Packers, 49ers and Cowboys all won and covered with at least a plus-3 (+3) or greater turnover margin. The Colts were within 21-19 in the fourth quarter before Indianapolis turned the ball over on four straight possession that led to a Dallas rout, 54-19. Meanwhile, Bears (+3.5) bettors have to be going bonkers again after leading the Packers 19-10 in the second half only to have bonehead QB Justin Fields throw two more INT’s to allow Green Bay and QB Rodgers to continue its dominance over Chicago with a 28-19 win.
Fantasy football players love Fields. Bettors don’t, even if they have an edge with reduced juice sportsbooks. Bet the Bears at your own risk as they continue to invent more ways to lose games with untimely turnovers and a struggling defense and special teams. Then again, the Detroit Lions were doing the same early season with 5-straight losses and too many turnovers combined with a deficient defense. The Lions have now won 4-of-5 while going 5-0 ATS and opening as the underdog in each game and again in Week 14 against the Vikings before changing to the favorite early this week as the sports betting market and leading online sportsbooks adjust.
And understand NFL futures bets and potential payouts are a risk with so many quarterback injuries and changes. That includes the top two quarterbacks going down in San Francisco, Lamar Jackson in Baltimore and now dingbat Deshaun Watson starting for Cleveland. And Dallas, Washington, Carolina, New Orleans, LA Rams, Indianapolis, Houston, Tennessee, Pittsburgh, New England and the NY Jets have all had quarterback injuries and changes during the 2022 season.
From 2009 through the 2018 NFL season, Sharp Football Analysis noted that NFL teams that lost the turnover battle in a game by 3 or more went 22-459 SU (.045%). Teams that suffered a negative turnover margin of 2 or more went 134-959-1 (.123).
I break it down in my record keeping by exactly a 2 turnover differential, and 3 or more. Here are the records of teams that are plus 3 turnovers or more and exactly plus 2 (+2) this season:
2022 (thru Week 13)
+3 or more turnovers (25-1 SU, 24-2 ATS)
+2 turnovers (32-6 SU, 35-3 ATS)
In 2021, teams that were +3 in turnover margin in a game went 43-3 ATS.
Over the past 5 season, this is a 93% ATS winning situation.
Turnoversare the number one factor in point differential in a football game and have the greatest impact on a team winning and/or covering the point spread. Turnovers are also the least predictable statistic, as they are mostly random and especially fumbles due to a high percentage variance. Still, turnovers can be ’caused’ by one team or the ‘symptom’ of the other.
Interceptions or the potential cause of more fumbles can be handicapped by looking at the potential weakness of an offensive line, strength of a defensive line, quarterback play and experience, and the likelihood of more mistakes and turnovers in a tough road environment; especially against a stronger or ‘Class A’ defense. How is a young quarterback going to perform on the road when the running game is shut down and he’s forced to pass more than expected? Against a strong defense, the mistakes and chances of a turnover increase, albeit by a small percentage.
While any little edge is worth pursuing and considering when it comes to sports handicapping and betting, you’re focus should still be on things you can handicap and control more clearly. Projecting match-up edges, point of attack play and rushing edges while controlling the ball, clock and chains is a good place to start. Yet while the Bears are blowing games with dominant rushing yards, know that teams that rush for at least 150 yards in a game (when their opponent does not) are 74-21-2 SU and 70-24-3 ATS (74%) this season. You can research and incorporate more advanced stats like Football Outsiders DVOA (which I have weekly for each matchup) and other metrics. But, know that 35% of the NFL games this season have at least a 2 or greater turnover differential, which means you’re likely to lose your pre-game spread bet at least 80% of the time (> 90% so far this season).
Over the past 5+ years, NFL teams that are exactly +2 in the turnover column have covered a little over 80% of the games ATS. It’s closer to 85% the past two seasons and historically just above 80%.
NFL teams that are +3 or greater in the turnover column have covered 92-93% ATS the past 5+ years with nearly 200 games meeting the + 3 turnover margin, and better than 90% historically.
Here is a link to NFL turnover stats for 2022, and a dropdown menu for teams turnover stats the past 5 years.
The 2022 leaders in turnover margin are:
Philadelphia Eagles (+13)
Dallas Cowboys (+9)
Minnesota Vikings (+8)
Baltimore Ravens (+6)
The Ravens (8-4 SU, 4-7-1 ATS) are another team that has lost numerous games due to incredible plays, turnovers and variance with a running quarterback. The Vikings are 9-0 SU in one score games and winning more games despite stats and metrics that don’t support a 10-2 record. The Eagles (11-1) and Cowboys (9-3) are both producing profit ATS, while playing the best in the NFC.
Turnover trouble leaders include:
Indianapolis Colts (-14)
New Orleans Saints (-12)
Los Angeles Rams (-7)
Houston Texans (-6)
Use turnover margins as one of the tools in your handicapping tool box to win more when betting on NFL football.
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL point spread predictions. Follow FairwayJay here at GamblersWORLD.com and on Twitter @FairwayJay for more gambling insights.
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