NFL Preseason Week 2 Line Moves and Picks

NFLX Week 2 Lines Moves

When NFL line moves occur, two aspects drive the numbers to go in different directions from where they started. There has either been a substantial amount of wagers and money to push the oddsmaker’s original release or highly respected bets have been placed by sharp bettor(s).

NFLX – (403) Atlanta at (404) Baltimore (-1) – Saturday, August 17 – 12:00 p.m. EDT

Baltimore has been flipped from a 2.5-point home underdog to a one-point home favorite versus Atlanta. Though the Ravens failed to win and cover at home last week to Philadelphia, head coach John Harbaugh’s long history of success in winning and covering this time of year still matters to bettors. The sense today is Harbaugh cared about the streak because it was newsworthy and mattered to the team, but now that it’s over, he’s moved on. Though Atlanta is receiving a lot of buzz to win the weak NFC South, this club is still 2-8 ATS on the preseason road, and with the Ravens off a loss, they will put forth more effort before the home folks in the Battle of Birds.

Doug’s Pick – Ravens -1

NFLX – (405) N.Y. Giants at (406) Houston -2.5, 39.5 – Saturday, August 17 – 1:00 p.m. EDT

Houston has tumbled three points to -2.5 point favorites against the visiting New York Giants. The Giants easily handled a Detroit squad that appeared to need the exercise more than a victory. The G-Men being lowered as underdogs has to do with starting QB Daniel Jones expected to play, wanting to test his repaired knee in game conditions. Jones pleaded with coach Brian Daboll to play last week and is on the record he prefers to get more work than a series or two. With that expected by the oddsmakers, this matchup has also featured the largest totals move from 35.5 to 39.5. (As of Thursday afternoon.) A case can be made for the OVER, but that feels like a lot of points with NFLX totals 12-5 UNDER to date. As far as the side, a case can be made for QBs Davis Millis and Case Keenum to succeed and with the number under a field goal, let’s side with the Texans.

Doug’s Pick – Texans -2.5 and Lean UNDER

NFLX – (409) Detroit at (410) Kansas City -7 – Saturday, August 17 – 4:00 p.m. EDT / NFLN

One wouldn’t think Kansas City would care much about losing in the season opener at home against Detroit last season, but with Andy Reid, one cannot be 100 percent positive. The Chiefs’ passing game was abysmal last week at Jacksonville with only 158 yards in 22 completions. (K.C. did permit 5 sacks which lowered the passing yards). If last week was any indication about Detroit’s offense without Jared Goff, they better keep him healthy because Nate Sudfeld and Hendon Hooker are presently not good options. Kansas City has been blown up from -3.5 to -7, which seems like too many points. Getting a full touchdown and extra heavy public on the Chiefs, it makes sense to grab the digits.

Doug’s Pick – Lions +7

NFLX – (413) Washington at (414) Miami -5 – Saturday, August 17 – 7:00 p.m. EDT

On Thursday, Miami shot up from -1.5 to -5 for hosting Washington. By most accounts, this has been the most competitive camp in years for the Dolphins with players on each side of the ball really competing and coach Mike McDaniel wanting a more physical squad for the upcoming year. Jayden Daniels has played well in camp, nonetheless, how much he’ll be used is to be determined. Washington backups Jeff Driskell and Sam Hartman hardly move the needle. This should be a close game matchup, with the Dolphins winning the second half to cover.

Doug’s Pick – Lean Dolphins -5

NFLX – (431) Green Bay at (432) Denver -7 – Sunday, August 18 – 8:00 p.m. EDT / NFLN

Compared to the regular NFL season, it doesn’t take much money to move lines significantly in the preseason. Tickets and money are running about 60% on Denver, yet they have exploded from -3.5 to -7 at a Mile High. The Broncos posted the highest number of points in the preseason with 34 in the victory over Indianapolis last week. Rookie Bo Nix and Zach Wilson were both sharp in throwing for over 115 yards and coach Sean Payton has not been as critical as a year ago of his squad. Jordan Love is officially “out” this week which influenced the line. No doubt, the Broncos have more to play for in the encounter, but giving this many points is too rich.

Doug’s Pick – Lean Packers +7

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