2024 AFC SOUTH PREVIEW

This 2024 AFC SOUTH Preview is presented by Playbook Sports.

The season win totals and odds to make the playoffs are from the opening lines at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas.

These write-ups were extracted from the 2024 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide magazine, on sale now at Barnes & Noble and Book-A-Million bookstores across the country, along with the Gambler’s Book Store in Las Vegas.  You can also get a copy directly from Playbook when you visit PlaybookSports.com.

HOUSTON TEXANS – TALL, TALL, TALL, TEXANS

A quick glance at the Texans‘ stats from last season tells us what we suspected. They were an 11-win playoff squad despite out-yarding opponents a mere +06 yards per game. Many of the victories came in surprise fashion when they scored five victories outright as underdogs. They were installed as underdogs 11 times last season. The SuperBook sees them taking points only 6 times in 2024. That’s an adjustment of a major proportion. Houston improved its record by seven wins, winning the AFC South under first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans, and NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud and NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Will Anderson Jr. A major reason is general manager Nick Caserio landed star WR Stephon Diggs, along with DE Danielle Hunter, DT Denico Autry, CBs Jeff Okudah and CJ Henderson, and RB Joe Mixon, among others, this offseason. The rebuild in Houston started when they fleeced the Browns in a trade for Deshaun Watson in 2022. Per CBS Sports, it includes eleven players currently on their roster, as well as picks No. 68, 80, 108, and 207 in the 2022 draft, 33 and 161 in the 2023 draft, and 27 and 232 in the 2024 draft. Talk about a haul.

Season Win Total: 9.5 OVER -140

Odds To Make Playoffs: YES -190 / NO +165

Stat You Will Like: Houston is 1-8 SU and 0-7-2 ATS all-time versus .500 or fewer NFC East foes.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Tennessee (11/24)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS – FOR THE SHOE

The big news in Nap Town is QB Anthony Richardson Part II, formerly known as AR15, the passer, will be revealed this season. Getting DE Laiatu Latu 15th overall in the draft and WR Adonai Mitchell at No. 52 were very likely two of this draft’s biggest value picks. Add them to the mix of a nine-win team with limited snaps from QB Anthony Richardson and RB Jonathan Taylor in 2023, and Indy is shaping up as one of next season’s potential breakout candidates. From a scheduling standpoint, Indy will play four of its six divisional games before Week 9, including all three on the road in quick succession, starting at Jacksonville on Oct 6. And don’t forget, the Colts and Lions lit up the scoreboard when they met this century – at least one team has scored 30 or more points in each of their six games since 2000. And if you’re a Colts fan – and an advocate of Marc’s Well-Oiled Machine – you won’t want to let an opening week beauty featuring the Colts in a jaw-dropping winning situation when they host Houston in their season opener. See the juicy details in Dave LaMont’s NFL Preview appearing on the Colts page (234).

Season Win Total: 8.5

Odds To Make Playoffs: YES +155 / NO -1755

Stat You Will Like: For the fifth consecutive season, the Colts will play the No. 1 overall pick from that year’s NFL Draft when they host Chicago on 9/22.

PLAY ON: at Jacksonville (10/6)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS – HOT DOGS TURNED COLD

Trevor Lawrence looked like a different quarterback in 2022 and 2023 compared to his rookie season, throwing for 8,129 yards and 51 touchdowns over the past two seasons. As a result, the Jaguars achieved consecutive winning seasons for the first time in 20 years. However, they haven’t had three straight winning seasons since 2000. That’s a long time between drinks of victory water, folks. Unfortunately, no team collapsed worse than the 9-8 Jacksonville Jaguars did last season. After twelve games, they were 8-3 with a 96% chance of making the playoffs but ended up with a 1-5 finish. Even the best professional Poker Players on tour today couldn’t bluff their way around numbers like those. Coach Doug Pederson has ‘good Doug’ and ‘bad Doug’ tendencies. He performs well when coming off a straight-up underdog win (17-7-1 ATS), but poorly against teams also coming off a SU underdog victory (7-15 ATS). Most notably, though, Pederson is 8-0-1 ATS at home after an upset win and 1-8 ATS after a loss against teams coming off an upset win. Yet, with the Jags playing in what can best be described as the Erectile Dysfunction-like softest division in the league, they are always in play.

Season Win Total: 8.5 OVER -130

Odds To Make Playoffs: YES +120 / NO -140

Stat You Will Like: Jacksonville is 6-0-1 ATS as a home favorite when coming off a SU underdog win.

PLAY ON: at Tennessee (12/8)

TENNESSEE TITANS – VRABELIZED

Yes, likeable Mike Vrable and his 56-48 record with Tennessee is gone. The Titans will pay the price as they begin the rebuild from the ground up over the next few years. However, the signing of Calvin Ridley makes the Titans’ pass-receiving trio of Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, and Treylon Burks lethal. If only Will Levis wasn’t being asked to get them the ball. Vrabel was one of 30 NFL head coaches fired in the last four years. As a result, former Browns OL coach Brian Callahan will be one of seven new head coaches in the league this season. Expect him to take advantage of the terrific wide receiving trio drawing lots of attention, leaving the running backs to exploit linebackers. That’s good news for RBs Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears – and those smart enough to add them to their fantasy teams. The good news is that while free agency signings were a spark, the NFL draft was a dud. The Titans will be one of only four teams that will play with 5-plus games more than their opponent this season. In fact, there will be a total of 66 games played where one team has a 3-plus day rest advantage – the most in NFL history.

Season Win Total: 6.5 UNDER -140

Odds To Make Playoffs: YES +450/ NO -600

Stat You Will Like: The Titans are 5-14-1 ATS with revenge against a division opponent coming off a SUATS loss, including 0-7-1 ATS away.

PLAY ON: at Indianapolis (12/22)

The 2024 AFC South Playoff Preview is presented by Playbook Sports, where Marc Lawrence has been providing top handicapping tips and picks for nearly three decades. Get his top picks and best bets here at gamblersWORLD.