Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Week 4

Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Week 4

College Football Week 4 Early Lines Moves

We start looking at Week 4 on the college gridiron for Line Moves. The biggest one by far was N.C. State leaping from +14.5 to +20 at Clemson, but QB Grayson McCall is not expected to play against the Tigers.  All Free Picks will come on Friday’s update; we were 4-2 last week.

CFB – (343) Ohio U. at (344) Kentucky -20
Saturday, September 21 – 12:45 p.m. ET / SECN

In what seems like an unusual scheduling arrangement, Kentucky hosts Ohio U. for the third straight time this century in a year that ends in four. (2004-14-24) Football bettors are impressed with the Wildcats’ defensive grit in holding then No. 1 Georgia to a mere 13 points and beefing up Kentucky from -17.5 to -20 against visiting Ohio U. The belief has to be the home ‘Cats #8 run defense can slow or even contain the Bobcats #15 rush attack lead by Anthony Tyus III, who is averaging 7.5 yards a carry. Both clubs prefer to run the ball, whoever can sustain drives and score should cover the number.

Early Bet Percentage: 70% Kentucky

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

CFB – (357) Baylor at (358) Colorado -1.5
Saturday, September 21 – 8:00 p.m. ET / FOX

Even in victory, Colorado coaches and players are poor sports saying Colorado State didn’t “respect them” in their 28-9 triumph. About the only true respect in a rivalry these days, is Army vs. Navy, as the Sanders family becomes more unlikeable by the day. However, the Buffaloes are receiving respect from somewhere as the Buffs were switched from +1 to -2 point favorites Monday before settling at -1.5. Baylor is playing the defense you would expect from a Dave Aranda-coached team. Nonetheless, the Bears have not faced a passing attack this season like Colorado which is #31 at more than 277 yards a game. The Baylor offense is hardly prolific in any area and their defense will have to contain Colorado to stay in the contest.

Early Bet Percentage: 60% Baylor

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

CFB – (365) Arkansas at (366) Auburn -3
Saturday, September 21 – 3:30 p.m. ET / ESPN

This is the SEC opener for both clubs. Each is 2-1 and wants to win to prevent their season from derailing. Arkansas was in a great position to knock off ranked Oklahoma State but made mistakes and lost 39-31 in OT as 10-point underdogs. They followed that up with a flat showing, beating UAB by only 10 as 25-point home favorites. Auburn was pathetic in falling to California 21-14 at home as a 10-point pick by committing five turnovers. Handling a no-good New Mexico club by 26 did nothing to improve their standing with the locals. The Razorbacks have fallen from -5 to -3 as the away team is on a 5-0 ATS run (4-1 SU) and 6-1 ATS since 2017.

Early Bet Percentage: 65% Auburn

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

CFB – (389) UCLA at (390) LSU -25
Saturday, September 21 – 3:40 p.m. ET / ABC

LSU hopping two points to -25 over UCLA likely has less to do with the Tigers than how UCLA looks. LSU had a come-from-behind clutch win at South Carolina but its defense breaks down with regularity. Coach Brian Kelly’s defense has surrendered 30 PPG to a pair of USC teams from each coast and even conceded 21 points to Nicholls State. That might not matter as the Bruins have tallied 29 total points versus Hawaii and Indiana which are not among the defensive elites in college football. If the LSU running game can get rolling to match their #23 pass offense at nearly 300 YPG, The Tigers could run away and beat this number.

Early Bet Percentage: 92% LSU

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

CFB – (397) Memphis at (398) Navy +9
Saturday, September 21 – 3:30 p.m. ET / CBSSN

Memphis is 3-0 SU and ATS and is one of the current top contenders from the G5 contingent that could earn a playoff berth after their upset at Florida State. The Tigers offense is run by senior QB Seth Henigan who has excellent command in the pocket. Despite the Navy having only faced FCS Bucknell and lowly Temple, the Midshipmen sank to +9.5 from an opening figure of +12.5. Since becoming AAC members, the Navy has caused problems for the Tigers, sporting a 6-3 ATS mark. Memphis has struggled with the Middies option and when they stop them or give up points, they have not shown patience on offense and fallen into the Navy’s trap. Will it happen again?

Early Bet Percentage: 62% Navy

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

Get more college football betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.