NFL Football Betting — How much does red zone success (or lack of it) tell us?

What Does Redzone Success Tell Us? 

One would think that if a team had an outstanding percentage of red zone trips that resulted in touchdowns, compared to others, that team would take quite an advantage in games. After all, if you can score six points (or seven, as it were) as opposed to three, that is a significant difference in a league that is so relatively evenly matched.

Obviously, your objective is to beat the points spread throughout the season. And if you had a team that scored touchdowns rather than field goals, by and large, they would do pretty damn well when it came to covering.

Right?

Well, not always, as it turns out.

We endeavored to examine the teams that had the highest Red Zone TD Percentage in the NFL in 2023, looked for the correlation with the straight-up and ATS winning percentage, and compared that performance to that which they posted in 2022 because we wanted to see if they became more of less profitable than the year before.

We also did the same for the worst teams at scoring touchdowns on their red zone trips.

One of the more interesting things we discovered was that one of the NFL’s top five teams in the red zone played badly enough to qualify for the second pick in the NFL Draft. And they fired their coach. 

Another interesting thing was that a team that had a tremendous differential between its offensive and defensive efficiency in the red zone went nowhere in their division and fired their coach too. 

So let’s take a look at the best NFL teams for 2023 when it came to red zone touchdown conversions. Take note on this table and the table beneath it that it is inclusive of postseason games. 

In the table, we list the team’s numbers for last year and the year prior.  

Key:  RZTD (Red Zone Touchdown Percentage),  SU (Straight-up record); ATS (Against the Spread)

Red Zone Success – The Best 

Well, four of the teams in this table made the playoffs last season (the Bills, Dolphins, Niners, and Lions), although only Detroit and Miami had winning spread records. 

The outlier here was the Washington Commanders, who, under new offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy, got into the end zone on 63.3% of occasions they entered the red zone. What’s also kind of interesting is that for a team that finished 4-13 (and a dismal 6-10-1 ATS, we might add), they weren’t exactly the worst on defense in the red zone, having allowed touchdowns 56.7% of the time, which ranked them 19th in the NFL.

Obviously, in a case like theirs, there were other factors – characteristic of horrible performance – that led to their demise. They gave up almost 400 yards a game on the defensive side, and their offensive line could not protect, as they surrendered 64 sacks and had no running game. And quarterback Sam Howell threw 21 interceptions. 

The Lions have scored a touchdown on almost two-thirds of their red zone trips the last two seasons, and have a 26-11 point spread record to show for it.

Red Zone Success – The Worst 

Now here are the worst NFL teams for 2023 when it came to turning those red zone trips into touchdowns:

That the Jets and Giants were the two worst teams at scoring in the red zone should be very little surprise. After all, there were a lot of quarterback problems in MetLife Stadium. 

No one is going to be very productive with Zach Wilson as a starting quarterback, and that’s what the Jets were left with after Aaron Rodgers‘ injury. The Giants were reduced to having to start undrafted rookie Tommy DeVito. The whole thing was kind of ugly, and with the Giants in particular it was a huge drop since they were fifth-best in the NFL in 2022. Not coincidentally, they had a 14-5 ATS mark two seasons ago.

All of these teams declined greatly in 2023 from what they did in 2022. The only team among these five that is going with the same quarterback as they had for most of 2023 is the Tennessee Titans. Oddly enough, even with the Titans’ RZTD at only 47.9% last year, they had a positive differential between that and their opponents’ figure, which was only 37.7%. 

This still didn’t help them a whole lot, as they were 6-11 straight-up and not much better against the number (7-9-1 ATS). Among other things, they were awful at protecting the passer; their QB “sacked” percentage was the second worst in the league.

Red Zone Success – The Conclusion

We’re not sure there is a definitive conclusion for us, but we’d say there is something of a correlation between being able to score six points instead of three in the red zone and ultimate success straight-up. Team values and point spreads will tend to change throughout the season, so there is no guarantee that a team will stay ahead of the oddsmaker all year long.

However, while in and of itself, the RZTD figure may not be a barometer of spread success, it’s not a bad “plus” factor to consider, assuming there is not some egregious stuff the team has hanging over it. 

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