Early Line Moves for NFL Week 3
Last week there were EIGHT Outright upsets with underdogs 10-4-1 ATS. (Arizona closed as a Push) What will this week hold? ALL Free Picks will come on Friday’s update edition.
NFL – (451) L.A. Chargers at (452) Pittsburgh Total 35.5
Sunday, September 22 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS
The number of touchdown passes is WAY down compared to the last several years after two weeks and it’s not a shocker that totals are
tumbling. This AFC total has dropped three points to 35.5 with few bettors convinced Justin Fields is the next Peyton Manning, averaging 136.5 yards per game passing. We understand Justin Herbert is a dynamic passer but with the Chargers having 71 rush attempts in the first two games, Herbert has only thrown for one more yard than Fields. Herbert hurt his foot and leg Sunday which is another reason the total fell and we will learn more as the week progresses.
Early Bet Percentage: 90% UNDER
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
NFL – (453) Chicago at (454) Indianapolis -1, Total 43.5
Sunday, September 22 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS
Despite the money favoring a higher score, the total for this Midwestern clash has crashed from 46.5 to 43.5. At the same time, the Colts were lowered from a -2.5 point home favorites to -1. This contest features two young quarterbacks who haven’t looked good except for a few dynamic plays, which explains the total sinking. Chicago’s defense is strong at all three levels as we witnessed in their first two outings, which gives them a chance if QB Anthony Richardson makes poor decisions as he will do.
Early Bet Percentage: Bears 57% and 70% OVER
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
NFL – (455) Houston at (456) Minnesota +2.5
Sunday, September 22 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS
A pair of 2-0 clubs collide and the home underdog receives the attention. Houston was sent out as a 4.5-point favorite, but that was 
before Minnesota upset San Francisco. The Vikings’ defense is disruptive, utilizing the attacking style of DC Brian Flores, which 49ers QB Brock Purdy described as “crazy” after the Niners’ loss. Everyone witnessed how Chicago’s physical and speedy defense affected Houston from the middle of the second quarter on and this contest is in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. Something to keep in mind, the Vikes are 4-7 ATS when the line is -3 to +3 and the Texans are 5-1 ATS since 2022.
Early Bet Percentage: Vikings 70%
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
NFL – (461) Denver at (462) Tampa Bay Total 39.5
Sunday, September 22 – 1:00 p.m. ET / FOX
We have significant line movement for non-conference clash with the total crumbling from 43 points all the way to 39.5. One can understand why as Denver rookie QB Bo Nix has played like the rest of his first-year peers, making mistakes and holding back the Broncos offense. Tampa Bay has held its first two opponents below 20 points, making this a possibility again. However, Baker Mayfield has made all the plays and while it’s not always artistic, the Bucs are scoring. Would not be surprised to see this total rise as the week moves along and NFL bettors feel the same way.
Early Bet Percentage: 70% OVER
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
NFL – (471) Baltimore at (472) Dallas +1
Sunday, September 22 – 4:25 p.m. ET / FOX
Dallas opened as a single-digit home fave and has been flipped to a one-digit home pooch. The Cowboys’ defense film session had to look like a horror movie as they never stopped New Orleans, who gained 422 yards and ran up 44 points. Last Sunday, Baltimore blew their third
home game in three years, holding a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter. Doing so against a team like the Raiders offense is unforgivable. The Ravens tried to downplay they had a rebuilt offensive line, but it’s showing and they are staring at a potential 0-3 start. Because Dallas is assigned a three-point home field edge, in either point spread scenario, the oddsmakers are telling us the Ravens are better. What do you think?
Early Bet Percentage: Ravens 65%
Doug’s Pick – Back Friday
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