Gamblers World Line Moves: NFL Week 4 Update

GamblersWORLD NFL Week 4 Updated Line Moves and Free Picks

There are just literally survivors left in Survivor Pools. Underdogs of 5.5 or more points are 14-2 ATS and 10-6 outright! And the betting public is 17-30-1 after three weeks, their 2^nd-worst start in 20 years? Will the insanity continue? ALL Free Picks are now posted along with wild public betting trends below!

Note: There were big line moves on the Chargers and Vikings, but those were predicated on the possible status of each quarterback, which doesn’t fit our criteria for line moves.

NFL – (263) New Orleans at (264) Atlanta  Total 42.5 
Sunday, September 29 – 1:00 p.m. / FOX

After scoring in the 40’s twice to start the season, who would have thought one week removed a New Orleans total would tumble four points to 42.5! The Saints and Atlanta scored just 29 combined points last week. Defensively, New Orleans is only permitting 14.7 PPG and the Falcons are at 20.3 PPG, and that comes after facing Philadelphia and Kansas City. We saw Derek Carr go just 14-25 for 130 last week when the Saints couldn’t post big rushing yards, making that something to watch. Atlanta’s offense is only #20 and it slips to #27 in yards per point showing their inability to cash when in scoring position. 

Update: Better than 80% of the sportsbooks have further lowered this total to 42. Atlanta has played three straight Unders, while the Saints are 2-1 OVER. It seems like what team can control the tempo will decide the total. I’ll lean with the lower score, believing both defenses can bother Carr and Kirk Cousins.

Bet Percentage: Was UNDER 65%, now 52%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Under

NFL – (265) Pittsburgh at (266) Indianapolis  +2 
Sunday, September 29 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS

If you watched these two teams this season, Pittsburgh’s Justin Fields is the steadier, more reliable quarterback to date in this confrontation. The Colts Anthony Richardson is completing less than half his pass attempts and the big cause is his horrific footwork, tossing (literally) passes two feet short or three feet over pass catchers heads. Considering this information and that Pittsburgh is #1 in total defense while Indy is #31, the Steelers moved from +1 to -2 seems to add up. Toss in Pittsburgh is 13-7 ATS on the road and 8-3 ATS after one or more consecutive victories, backing Indianapolis becomes a conundrum. 

Update: About half the books have stayed the same with the rest now having the Steelers at -1.5. This definitely feels like this will come down to what QB is on top of his game and avoids miscues.

Bet Percentage: Was Pittsburgh 70%, now 58%

Doug’s Pick – Sorry, Premium Play

NFL – (267) Jacksonville at (268) Houston  -7 
Sunday, September 29 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS

As bad as Houston played in the Land of 10,000 Lakes this past Sunday, it’s Jacksonville that looks like it is drowning after a complete no-show 47-10 butt-whupping at Buffalo. That leaves the Jaguars 0-3 SU and ATS and coach Doug Pederson was talking major changes after the game, that might include QB Trevor Lawrence. (Just think if Lawrence is benched, Jacksonville just changed the name of their stadium to TrEverBank). Though the Texans were awful last week, this feels like a bloated number for a division game since Houston is 0-2-1 ATS. It is worth noting the visitor is on a 5-0 SU and ATS move. 

Update: This is a classic – buy low – moment on Jacksonville because how can they play any worse? The Jaguars are down to +6 with a steady stream of support. At this figure, you lose key number value. I’m not sure how you trust a shaky Lawrence and teams like the Texans off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite, with a winning record on the season, playing a losing team, have won by 11.2 PPG the last 23 times this has happened since 2015.

Bet Percentage: Was Houston 90%, now 54%

Doug’s Pick – Texans cover

NFL – (271) Cincinnati at (272) Carolina +4.5 Total 48.5 
Sunday, September 29 – 1:00 p.m. ET / FOX

The Cincinnati defense might have a hard time stopping a good flag football team with their injuries and its ridiculously bad secondary play. Carolina played like a professional football squad thanks to having a real professional QB in Andy Dalton by routing the Raiders. The total went from large to ginormous like a Circle K takeout cup, up SIX points to 48.5. And few want any part of giving a touchdown with the Bengals, lowering them from -7 to -4.5. Both the side and total will require research because who really are the Panthers and what do you make of Cincinnati going forward? 

Update: The side has stayed the same with Cincy at -4.5. The total has gone downward to 47. It would seem the Bengals are finding themselves on offense and despite last week’s performance by Dalton, it’s hard to imagine he’ll duplicate that even against the Bengals secondary. As far as the total, for whatever metric you like, these defenses rank in the bottom 25%. Think OVER.

Bet Percentage: Was Bengals 60%, now 72% and UNDER 62% is unchanged

Doug’s Pick – Bengals cover and OVER

NFL – (277) Philadelphia at (278) Tampa Bay Total 45.5 
Sunday, September 29 – 1:00 p.m. ET / FOX

This is a fascinating NFC encounter that has the total sliding from 47.5 to 45. Philadelphia is moving the pigskin, ranked #2 in total offense, yet is #24 in YPPT, mostly because of six turnovers or needlessly going on 4^th down and short, failing to make it instead of taking the points. After many were singing the praises of QB Baker Mayfield, the Tampa Bay offense has 216 and 223 yards respectively in their last two outings for 27 total points. Though neither team is in bad shape in their division, the direction they take after this skirmish will be particularly interesting for the loser. The UNDER is on a 4-0 run in this matchup.

 Update: If you like us thought this total falling 2.5 points was a lot, that was only the opening salvo, with the total today at 42.5. Both offenses could be without important starters that catch passes, which should limit what Mayfield and Jalen Hurts can produce. Too many unknowns to make a strong play and it’s best to see the injury updates on Sunday morning to decide what to do.

Bet Percentage: Was UNDER 70%, now 52%

Doug’s Pick – Very slight Under at this price. Follow advice.

NEW – NFL – (291) Seattle at (292) Detroit Total 46.5 
Monday, September 30 – 8:15 p.m. ET / ABC

Seattle has gotten off to a sizzling start with their new head coach Mike McDonald at 3-0. Not only has the offense improved but so has the Seahawks defense, listed #4 in points allowed at 14.3. Detroit’s defense is hardly weak at #9, at 17.7 PPG surrendered. This is partly why the total has tumbled from 48.5 to 47. The other aspect is the Lions offense, which has labored in scoring 20.7 PPG and that is determined by ranking #29 in yards per point. With two good defenses and the Lions not as efficient these days the UNDER makes the most sense. Additionally, Seattle is on a 6-0 UNDER run after gaining six or more yards per play in their previous game.

Bet Percentage: OVER 68%

Doug’s Pick – Play UNDER

NFL Top 3 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (1-8 record): 49ers, Jets and Bengals

NFL Top 3 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (7-2 Record): Titans/Dolphins UNDER, Broncos/Jets UNDER and Commanders/Cardinals OVER

Doug Upstone has been a decorated handicapper since 2003 and a sports betting writer since 2005. You can find Doug’s award-winning picks right here.