Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Week 6 Update

Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Week 6 Update

College Football Week 6 Lines Moves

We move ahead to October, full speed ahead with conference action ready to heat up. Here are the biggest early line moves for college football to begin a new week. This week’s line moves include several growing home underdogs. We are a solid 19-14 on our free picks and also review the public betting trends which are 64% this season on sides.

CFB – (317) East Carolina at (318) Charlotte +9
Saturday, October 5 – 3:30 p.m. ET / ESPNU

In this AAC clash, East Carolina has climbed from -7.5 to -9. Both squads won last week, lifting ECU to 3-2 and Charlotte to 2-3. The Pirates are good at stealing the football with 13 forced turnovers, yet, they are also too generous, with 16 miscues of their own. Charlotte is weak on offense at only 17.7 PPG (#120), while ECU is a run-of-the-mill 27 PPG. The visiting Pirates also have a big edge on defense, holding opponents to 18.6 PPG, with the 49ers at 33.2 PPG allowed. If Charlotte can force East Carolina turnovers, they can stay in this matchup. Update: This number has backed up to +8 for the 49ers. The concern about Charlotte is they have been outgained in each contest, never a good sign. Additionally, while not a dramatic figure, ECU has held opponents 15 yards below their average. With Charlotte’s 2-12 ATS at home recently, we cannot back them.

Bet Percentage: Was Charlotte 80%, now East Carolina 70%

Doug’s Pick – East Carolina covers

CFB – (331) Western Michigan at (332) Ball State +9
Saturday, October 5 – 2:00 p.m. ET / ESPN+

Even though we are only one-third through the season for most teams, Western Michigan and Ball State are 1-3 and have work to do to become bowl-eligible. Those betting on college football have shown an inclination preference toward the Broncos, moving them from -7.5 to -9. Both squads have faced some rugged competition and have given up numerous points, with the Cardinals at 49 PPG and WMU at 35.5 PPG. Offensively, Western Michigan is the modestly better club in points (23.3 vs. 20.8) and yardage (343 vs 308) per game. The SU winner is 5-0 and 4-1 ATS, but the last time Ball State was this large a home underdog to the Broncos at home, they won and covered in 2018. Update: A slight bump goes to Western Mich. to -9.5 in this MAC matchup. This feels like too many points for the Broncos to be dishing out on the road and the Cardinals are 5-2 ATS after one or more setbacks at home.

Bet Percentage: Was Ball State 80%. Now 57%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Ball State

CFB – (363) Virginia Tech at (364) Stanford +9.5, Total 50
Saturday, October 5 – 3:30 p.m. ET / ACCN

Stanford will be pleased to be home after consecutive trips to the Eastern time zone, now playing in the ACC. The Cardinal face Virginia Tech, whose emotional state is unknown after thinking they upset Miami was taken away on a reversed call. Sportsbooks are receiving mostly Stanford money, but the Hokies have gone from -7 to -9.5. The total is also on the move, lowered from 53 to 50. Virginia Tech has a quality run game at 192 YPG.

Nonetheless, the Cardinal are stout against the run at #8 (but poor against the pass – #124), permitting 76.2 YPG. It seems if both teams can have enough success running the pigskin, the total is headed in the right direction. Update: As the week progressed, Virginia Tech has lost its luster and is down to -8, with a slight dip in the total to 49.5. However, those wagering altered the betting numbers as you can see. The Hokies have played three straight OVERs and the Cardinal three consecutive UNDERS, thus, who controls the tempo will decide the total.

Bet Percentage: Was Stanford 62% & UNDER 80%, now Stanford 84% & OVER 70%

Doug’s Pick – Slight lean UNDER, side, the side is a Premium Pick

NEW – CFB – (369) Tennessee at (370) Arkansas  Total 57
Saturday, Oct. 5 – 7:30 p.m. ET / ABC

With how the Tennessee offense played, the opening total of 61 sure looked like the right number. Football bettors in all shapes and sizes disagreed and the total has plummeted to 57. Here is why this this happened. The Vols nonconference competition was no match for their speed, but when they went to Oklahoma, freshman QB Nico Iamaleava played unsettled and Tennessee mustered only 25 points away from Knoxville. A case can be made Arkansas should be 5-0, blowing late leads to Oklahoma State and Texas A&M. In the Razorbacks’ two SEC contests, they both went UNDER. The Hogs under coach Pittman tends to play Over, yet when facing good defensive teams who give up 17 or less PPG, his team is 5-1 UNDER. The same goes for coach Heupel, but at Tennessee, he is 9-4 UNDER vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season.

Bet Percentage: UNDER 87%

Doug’s Pick – Play UNDER

CFB – (377) Temple at (378) Connecticut -16
Saturday, October 5 – 3:30 p.m. ET / CBSSN

While UConn football remains without a conference home or willing to put in the resources needed, veteran coach Jim Mora Jr. has the Huskies at .500 (3-1 ATS) and looking to return to a bowl game. Connecticut opened as a two-touchdown home favorite and was bumped to -16.5 versus Temple. The Owls are in for another long losing season at 1-4 (2-3 ATS), being outscored by 19 PPG. These former conference rivals have not met in five years and even with Temple 3-9 ATS as road dog recently, UConn has not been this large a favorite in over a decade. Update: The Huskies continue to draw the money and have been pushed up to -17. Though we believe the line is justified, we don’t like backing teams as favorites in unfamiliar roles. Besides, road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like Temple, having lost three out of their last four games in weeks 5 through 9 are 38-11 ATS.

Bet Percentage: Was Connecticut 90+%, now 70%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Temple

CFB – (381) James Madison at (382) UL-Monroe +16.5
Saturday, October 5 – 7:00 p.m. ET / ESPNU

James Madison lost their head coach and all but eight starters including their quarterback, yet, here they are at 4-0 (3-1 ATS), having tallied 137 points in their past two ball games. And on the topic of surprises, UL-Monroe is 3-1 SU and ATS despite ranking #114 in scoring and #129 in total offense. The Warhawks have held three less than potent offenses (Jackson State, UAB and Troy) to 29 points after Texas gashed them for 51. James Madison can score and was bumped two points to -16.5. The Dukes are 7-2 ATS as road favorites and 5-0 as away faves when the total is between 42.5 and 49. Update: James Madison has been lowered, and it’s evenly split by the sportsbooks at either -15.5 or -16. UL-Monroe is well-coached by Bryan Vincent, who should have gotten the UAB job (not Trent Dilfer), and while they have no offense, the Dukes’ could be looking ahead to Coastal Carolina next Thursday. We’ll say the Dukes are not as interested as normal, plus, road teams in a game involving two average defensive teams (330 to 390 YPG), after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game are just 18-49 ATS the next time out.

Bet Percentage: Was James Madison 90+%, now 65%

Doug’s Pick – UL-Monroe covers

CFB Top 5 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) 16-9 record: Boise State, Stanford, Pittsburgh, Marshall and Boston College

CFB Top 5 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) 13-12 record: USC/Iowa State UNDER, Rutgers/Nebraska UNDER, Kansas/Arizona St. OVER, Western Mich./Ball State OVER and Purdue/Wisconsin UNDER

Get more college football betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.