Gamblers World Line Moves: NFL Week 5 Update

GamblersWORLD NFL Week 5 Updated Line Moves and Free Picks

The betting public continues to get slammed overall at 22-38-2 ATS this season, the worst percentage in two decades. With the byes beginning and teams starting to play outside the U.S., will we start to see a correction or will it be one of those years? All Free Picks are posted and make certain to look over the betting trends at the bottom of this article, they are on fire!

NFL – (451) N.Y Jets at (452) Minnesota  -2.5, Total 40.5
Sunday, October 6 – 9:30 a.m. / NFLN

We know the Lookahead Lines can be off quite a bit after the previous week’s games were played, but this one caught our attention. This at a neutral field in London, seeing the Jets flying from -2.5 to +2.5 is striking against Minnesota. That’s not to say it is not justified because Gang Green’s offense is not coming together and there appears to be friction between Aaron Rodgers and coach Robert Saleh. The Vikings seem the opposite in doing everything right in their 4-0 SU and ATS start. But with that strong a record, is Minnesota due for regression? Update: NFL bettors believe the line is fair for the side and total and neither has not budged. While Gang Green is very tempting, international game favorites are 28-15 ATS. It would seem two strong defenses will keep this a lower-scoring affair.

Bet Percentage: Was Vikings 75% & OVER 63% now 55% & 60%

Doug’s Pick – Play UNDER, Lean Vikings

NFL – (455) Baltimore at (456) Cincinnati  Total 50.5
Sunday, October 6 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS

This is an important battle for these AFC North rivals. Baltimore has looked good in winning their last two contests, while Cincinnati finally scratched in the win column last Sunday. On offense, both offenses are functioning nicely with the Ravens #5 (26.5 PPG) and Bengals #9 (25.5). This would explain the total cruising from 47 to 50.5 points. Yet, the defenses are not terrible, ranked #13 (Baltimore) and #15 (Cincy) in total defense. The one Bengals shortcoming is ranking #28 in yards per point allowed. The OVER is 6-3 recently and 5-1 OVER in the Queen City. Update: As expected, this total went down and now sits at 49. The total depends on who you like. If you think Cincy can win, the Over is the play. If Baltimore is to cover, the Under is probably the better choice. Here is something to consider. In the last three seasons, the Ravens are 7-4 UNDER as road favorites and the Bengals are 3-0 UNDER as home underdogs.

Bet Percentage: Was OVER 85%, now 65%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Under

NFL – (463) Cleveland at (464) Washington  -3
Sunday, October 6 – 1:00 p.m. ET / FOX

If there was ever a quarterback difference that pointed to a star in the making and one past his prime, this is it. Jayden Daniels is playing like a young star and has captured the complete interest of Washington fans as we have not seen in decades. Cleveland has an albatross in Deshaun Watson who has run out of excuses for his mediocre play in charge of an offense averaging 16.5 PPG (#27). NFL bettors have taken notice and Washington has been elevated from -1 to -3 over the Browns. However, are bettors ready to back the Commanders as this large a home favorite based on their history? Update: This is an interesting one. Though the line has not moved and the bet percentages have not either, on X, commentators from the various sportsbooks are tweeting that Washington is their greatest liability going into the weekend. Though we’d like to make the case for Cleveland against what appears a very public team this weekend, Deshaun Watson is a detriment and the Browns are 3-7-1 ATS as away underdogs.

Bet Percentage: Commanders 62%, now Unchanged

Doug’s Pick – Washington covers

NEW – NFL – (465) Las Vegas at (466) Denver -3  Total 36
Sunday, Oct. 6 – 4:05 p.m. ET / FOX

This always-fun rivalry has seen the Broncos ride from -1.5 to -3 and the total slip from 38 to 36 as the week went along. Denver is off two road wins, both of the upset variety. Las Vegas beat Cleveland without Mr. Taco Bell (Davante Adams) and Maxx Crosby. With the Broncos’ defense permitting just 29 points in their last three starts, this makes a strong case for the UNDER. The Raiders have owned this rivalry of late at 9-1 SU and ATS and while Gardner Minshew is hardly elite, Bo Nix is not better. LV is 6-1 UNDER on the road vs. the AFC West and Denver is 7-3 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3.

Bet Percentage: Broncos 71%, UNDER 82%

Doug’s Pick – Raiders cover and UNDER

NFL – (469) Green Bay at (470) L.A. Rams  Total 48
Sunday, October 6 – 4:25 p.m. ET / CBS

Wasn’t the Green Bay defense supposed to be a strength this season? The Packers’ stop troops have been burned for over 30 points twice and though they held the Colts to 10 points, they conceded 322 yards. The Rams have lost the anchor in Aaron Donald on the defense and are permitting 28.5 PPG. That is no fluke, listed as #31 in total defense. The total in the NFC encounter has been pounded like Green Bay fans putting down brandy, shifted from 44.5 to 48. The Pack is riding on a 12-4 OVER train vs. NFC foes. Update: This total was nudged to 48.5. Not sure about this big move, because Green Bay is likely to want to return to running the pigskin to help Jordan Love and L.A. might want to have more balance in their offense against the Packers pass rush. The Rams are 21-7 UNDER against defenses allowing seven or more passing yards per attempt.

Bet Percentage: Was OVER 88%, now 80%

Doug’s Pick–Play UNDER

NFL – (473) Dallas at (474) Pittsburgh -2.5
Sunday, October 6 – 8:20 p.m. ET / NBC

What an interesting line move with Pittsburgh being switched from +1 to -2.5 despite the Steelers losing as a favorite and Dallas winning. The Cowboys have the offensive edge, at 24.3 PPG, compared to Pitt at 18.8 PPG. The bigger factor might be the defensive side of the ball where the Boys are #26 in points allowed and #28 in total defense, compared to Mike Tomlin’s crew #2 and #4 in those respective categories. One should at least ponder that Mike McCarthy’s squad is 1-6 ATS on the road when playing against a team with a winning record, with the Steelers 6-2 ATS at home off one or more setbacks. Update: No movement on this anticipated clash. Dallas would be intriguing, but with their defense further depleted it’s hard to make a case in that direction. Still not sold on Justin Fields, but Pittsburgh looks for a sharper effort at home after not showing up for the first 30 minutes at Indy. With the spread under three, the Steelers get the call,

Bet Percentage: Was Steelers 54%, now Cowboys 53%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Steelers

NFL Top 3 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (3-9 record): Jaguars, Seahawks and Broncos

NFL Top 3 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (9-3 Record): Dolphins/Patriots UNDER, Bills/Texans OVER and Raiders/Broncos OVER

Doug Upstone has been a decorated handicapper since 2003 and a sports betting writer since 2005. You can find Doug’s award-winning picks right here.