Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Week 7

College Football Week 7 Early Lines Moves

We have many big matchups this weekend after the Top 25 saw so many upsets this past week. As per usual there are also line moves and we have them all covered for you and break them down. Return on Friday and catch our Free Picks that are a sizzling 25-15, 62.5% in college football.

CFB – (129) Vanderbilt at (130) Kentucky -14
Saturday, October 12 – 7:45 p.m. ET / SECN

Off Vanderbilt’s unfathomable upset of No. 1 Alabama, ending the longest period of not beating a Top 5 opponent at 0-60, the Commodores’ chances of following that effort up appear remote and they are bumped up to -14 from -11.5 at Kentucky. The Wildcats also have the rest edge coming off their bye week after their huge upset of Ole Miss. All this makes perfect sense as it’s emotionally challenging to come anywhere close to that moment for a once-in-a-generation win that Vanderbilt pulled off. Besides, the ’Dores are 0-7 ATS after scoring 37 or more points.

Early Bet Percentage: Kentucky 72%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

CFB – (139) Louisville at (140) Virginia Total 54.5
Saturday, October 12 – 3:30 p.m. ET / ACCN

Louisville’s 3-0 start has been derailed by two consecutive losses. In fact, the Cardinals currently have a poorer record than Virginia who has a stunning 4-1 mark. The Cavaliers are controlling the tempo of their games and playing at home this week, football bettors feel they can do the same and dropped the total from 57 to 54.5. As we’ve seen Louisville is not the same team on the road at 1-8 ATS as a favorite. The Cardinals also fit this profile: When the total is between 49.5 and 56 and someone like the ‘Ville is off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%), the UNDER is 36-12.

Early Bet Percentage: 62% UNDER

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

CFB – (163) UAB at (164) Army -26, Total 55
Saturday, October 12 – 12:00 p.m. ET / CBSSN

The Army is off to a fantastic start at 5-0 SU and ATS, winning by an eye-popping 29 PPG. Though not a meme yet, sports bettors on ‘X’ are beginning to ask if Trent Dilfer will be the head coach that makes UAB want to give up on football again. The Blazers are a not-so-blazing 1-4 (2-3 ATS) and against FBS competition, they are losing by 27.5 PPG after they were steamrolled 71-20 at home by Tulane last Saturday. Having already been whipped 41-18 by the Navy, as 4.5-point underdogs, UAB is now catching +26 after an opening salvo of +22.5. With the Black Knights #5 in scoring defense at 10.5 PPG allowed and #9 in total defense, the total has slid from 57.5 to 55 in spite of what the early betting trends suggest.

Early Bet Percentage: Army 68% and OVER 85%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

CFB – (173) Air Force at (174) New Mexico -6.5
Saturday, October 12 – 7:00 p.m. ET / CBSSN

Coming into the season, New Mexico was an early choice to be ranked in the Bottom 10 of the sport all year. Though the Lobos are only 1-4, they have mildly surpassed market expectations at 3-2 ATS despite being ranked #131 in scoring AND total defense. This begs the question; just how bad is Air Force if they were moved from +4 to +6 versus New Mexico? The Flyboys offense is grounded, literally at an abysmal 9 PPG. The Falcons should do better than that against the Lobos’ sickly stop troops but enough to beat the spread?

Early Bet Percentage: Air Force 53%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

CFB – (185) Texas vs. (186) Oklahoma  Total 49
Saturday, October 12 – 3:30 p.m. ET / ABC

Initially, bettors are seeing the Red River Rivalry as a lower-than-anticipated contest, lowering the total from 51.5 to 49. Oklahoma has offensive issues, ranked #121 at less than 300 yards a game, though not as bad when it comes to scoring at 28.6 PPG (69^th nationally). The Texas scoring defense is pure madness, permitting 7.0 PPG, which is second only to Ohio State. For this total to be correct on the low side, the Sooners defense has to slow a Longhorns offense that’s averaging 45 PPG. Oklahoma’s defense is holding foes to 16 PPG.

Early Bet Percentage: UNDER 68%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

Get more college football betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.