Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Week 7 Update

Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Week 7 Update

College Football Week 7 Lines Moves

We have a large volume of big matchups this weekend after the Top 25 saw so many upsets this past week. As per usual there are also line moves and we have them all covered for you and break them down. Catch our Free Picks that are a sizzling 25-15, 62.5% in college football. Also, review the betting trends off an 8-2 week.

CFB – (129) Vanderbilt at (130) Kentucky -14
Saturday, October 12 – 7:45 p.m. ET / SECN

Off Vanderbilt’s unfathomable upset of No. 1 Alabama, ending the longest period of not beating a Top 5 opponent at 0-60, the Commodores’ chances of following that effort up appear remote and they are bumped up to -14 from -11.5 at Kentucky. The Wildcats also have the rest edge coming off their bye week after their huge upset of Ole Miss. All this makes perfect sense as it’s emotionally challenging to come anywhere close to that moment for a once-in-a-generation win that Vanderbilt pulled off. Besides, the ’Dores are 0-7 ATS after scoring 37 or more points. Update: Kentucky has dropped to -13 with 25% of the sportsbooks at -12.5. With this point spread and the total at just 44.5, this seems like a big number to cover with Vandy’s offensive capabilities, with backdoor possibilities wide open.

Bet Percentage: Was Kentucky 72%, now 57%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Vanderbilt covers

CFB – (139) Louisville at (140) Virginia Total 54.5
Saturday, October 12 – 3:30 p.m. ET / ACCN

Louisville’s 3-0 start has been derailed by two consecutive losses. In fact, the Cardinals currently have a poorer record than Virginia who has a stunning 4-1 mark. The Cavaliers are controlling the tempo of their games and playing at home this week, football bettors feel they can do the same and dropped the total from 57 to 54.5. As we’ve seen Louisville is not the same team on the road at 1-8 ATS as a favorite. The Cardinals also fit this profile: When the total is between 49.5 and 56 and someone like the ‘Ville is off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%), the UNDER is 36-12. Update: By midweek a modest buyback to 54, which doesn’t seem to make sense given what the betting odds are now. (Look below) This is another tough choice with conflicting info going both ways, but let’s support the lowered total that has value if you like Virginia, who is 7-0 OVER vs. teams averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards a carry.

Bet Percentage: Was 62% UNDER, now OVER 85%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Over

NEW – CFB – (141) Florida at (142) Tennessee -14, Total 57
Saturday, Oct. 12 – 7:00 p.m. ET / ESPN

Those betting football have not liked the look of the Tennessee offense the past two games, scoring 39 total points, with freshman QB Nico Iamaleava really scuffling in the passing game. With Florida winning their last two tilts, the Vols crumbled from -16.5 to -14. What is peculiar about the line movement is the total went up three points to 57, which suggests bettors think the Gators will sort of keep up on offense. Series history favors Florida at 9-3 and 8-3-1 ATS in Knoxville. However, Coach Heupel is 8-3 ATS off a SU loss and let’s not forget the Gators have given up 28 or more points three times. Expect Iamaleava to play more comfortably at home and the Vols to score again, while the Florida offense with two QBs is also getting it done. Grab the Over and Tennessee.

Bet Percentage: Tennessee 69% & OVER 83%

Doug’s Pick – Tennessee covers and OVER

CFB – (163) UAB at (164) Army -26, Total 55
Saturday, October 12 – 12:00 p.m. ET / CBSSN

The Army is off to a fantastic start at 5-0 SU and ATS, winning by an eye-popping 29 PPG. Though not a meme yet, sports bettors on ‘X’ are beginning to ask if Trent Dilfer will be the head coach that makes UAB want to give up on football again. The Blazers are a not-so-blazing 1-4 (2-3 ATS) and against FBS competition, they are losing by 27.5 PPG after they were steamrolled 71-20 at home by Tulane last Saturday. Having already been whipped 41-18 by the Navy, as 4.5-point underdogs, UAB is now catching +26 after an opening salvo of +22.5. With the Black Knights #5 in scoring defense at 10.5 PPG allowed and #9 in total defense, the total has slid from 57.5 to 55 in spite of what the early betting trends suggest. Update: Bettors cannot get enough of the Black Knights, now up to -27, though the total has stayed steady at 55. As mentioned, Army is 5-0 ATS and with this enlarged number, this seems like a sport for them to fail, however, their scoring drives essentially result in touchdowns and they just wear teams out with the option. Given how confident the Knights are, let’s go 42-10 and UNDER.

Bet Percentage: Was Army 68% and OVER 85%, now 92% and OVER 65%

Doug’s Pick – Army covers and UNDER

CFB – (173) Air Force at (174) New Mexico -6.5
Saturday, October 12 – 7:00 p.m. ET / CBSSN

Coming into the season, New Mexico was an early choice to be ranked in the Bottom 10 of the sport all year. Though the Lobos are only 1-4, they have mildly surpassed market expectations at 3-2 ATS despite being ranked #131 in scoring AND total defense. This begs the question; just how bad is Air Force if they were moved from +4 to +6 versus New Mexico? The Flyboys offense is grounded, literally at an abysmal 9 PPG. The Falcons should do better than that against the Lobos’ sickly stop troops but enough to beat the spread? Update: The line was stable all week despite an influx of money on the Lobos which tells us it was all public cash. Both offenses will move the ball, however, New Mexico is more capable of scoring points. In the MWC clash, back an average team (+/- 50 YPG) against a terrible team (outgained by 100+ YPG), after gaining 475 or more total yards game over their last three games. Clubs like the Lobos are an enchanting 36-7 ATS.

Bet Percentage: Was Air Force 53%, now New Mexico 74%

Doug’s Pick – New Mexico covers

CFB – (185) Texas vs. (186) Oklahoma  Total 49
Saturday, October 12 – 3:30 p.m. ET / ABC

Initially, bettors are seeing the Red River Rivalry as a lower-than-anticipated contest, lowering the total from 51.5 to 49. Oklahoma has offensive issues, ranked #121 at less than 300 yards a game, though not as bad when it comes to scoring at 28.6 PPG (69^th nationally). The Texas scoring defense is pure madness, permitting 7.0 PPG, which is second only to Ohio State. For this total to be correct on the low side, the Sooners defense has to slow a Longhorns offense that’s averaging 45 PPG. Oklahoma’s defense is holding foes to 16 PPG. Update: On Friday morning, offshore books lowered the total to 48.5 and we expect the rest to follow. Just not sure how the Sooners score often and I like the direction of Coach Venables defense. With the Horns 7-2 UNDER in Weeks 5 to 9 and 5-0 UNDER when the total is between 42.5 and 49, how low can you go?

Bet Percentage: Was UNDER 68%, now 51%

Doug’s Pick–Play UNDER

CFB Top 5 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (20-10 record): Army, N.C. State, Alabama, LSU, Central Michigan

CFB Top 5 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (17-13 record): Air Force/New Mexico OVER, California/Pittsburgh OVER, Memphis/USF OVER, Penn State/USC OVER and Arkansas St./Texas State OVER

Get more college football betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.