Gamblers World Line Moves: NFL Week 8 Update

GamblersWORLD NFL Week 8 Updated Line Moves and Free Picks

Once again, many totals are vastly adjusted and we grabbed many of them. We also have line movement on point spreads, but didn’t take any that involved injuries that dramatically adjusted the number. Now that we made it to Friday, we have our Free Picks that are 9-5 the past two weeks.

NFL – (263) Tennessee (464) Detroit -11.5
Sunday, October 27 – 1:00 p.m. / FOX

If you didn’t know already, Detroit (5-1 SU & ATS) is a very good football team and Tennessee (1-5 SU & ATS) is not. The Lions opened at -9.5 and have moved mostly to -11, though when looking at various sportsbooks, early Tuesday afternoon, we were finding -11.5 or even -12. Though Detroit is coached by Dan Campbell, you wouldn’t expect a letdown. However, after beating Dallas and Minnesota and having upcoming battles at Green Bay and Houston, it’s possible the Lions could take the Titans lightly. Update: About midweek, 25% of the sportsbooks went to -12, but they have since returned to where the market is comfortable at -11.5. This is just too big a number and the Titans are not trustworthy. We’d rather pass but will have the smallest of leans with Detroit.

Bet Percentage: Was Lions 91%, now 92%

Doug’s Pick – Slight lean Lions (no official pick)

NFL – (265) Baltimore at (266) Cleveland  Total 44.5
Sunday, October 27 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS

It seems impossible the Cleveland quarterback situation couldn’t be in worse shape. Deshaun Watson was revolting, but is gone for the season. Backup Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s status for the game is unclear after being injured himself, which likely leads to Jameis Winston under center. On Tuesday, the Browns signed Bailey Zappe off the Chiefs practice squad. Besides all the mayhem in Cleveland, the total climbed from 42 to 44.5. Why? Lamar Jackson is throwing the ball even better this season and is coming off a five-TD game. Also, the Ravens are 6-1 OVER thus far. Update: This sat all week at 44.5 and late Friday afternoon some 45s popped up out of nowhere. While Cleveland’s defense is capable of slowing the Ravens offense, they appear to have limitations. Winston could have success against the NFL’s worst pass defense, or he could toss a Pick 6 as he is known to do. Both scenarios lead to points.

Bet Percentage: Was OVER 55%, now 70%

Doug’s Pick – Lean OVER

NFL – (267) Green Bay at (268) Jacksonville Total 49.5
Sunday, October 27 – 1:00 p.m. ET / FOX

The Packers passing offense is a bit of by the numbers when they ran the ball 85 times (modest exaggeration) against Indianapolis when Malik Willis took over Jordan Love when he was injured. Green Bay is #9 in passing yards per game and would probably be a few spots higher if Love had played each contest. The Jacksonville defense has played every game and they are #31 in passing yards allowed and struggle to play man or zone defense. With this knowledge, the total zoomed three points to 49.5. With the Pack 8-0 OVER after a win by six or less points, will the line move still hold up? Update: Largely unchanged with a couple of moves of a half point in either direction before returning to the original adjustment. Wouldn’t be shocked if Love has a big game and the Pack is 8-3 OVER on the road after one of more victories.

Bet Percentage: Was OVER 74%, now 64%

Doug’s Pick – Play OVER

NFL – (269) Indianapolis at (270) Houston  Total 46
Sunday, October 27 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS

This is a rematch from Week 1 when Houston emerged victorious 29-27 at Indianapolis. Despite the high score, the total is slid from 48.5 to 46. A very likely reason is the erratic play of QB Anthony Richardson. In the four contests he’s played the majority of the snaps, the Colts have averaged 18.5 PPG. In the three games Joe Flacco has played the entire four quarters twice and three in another, Indy has averaged 27 PPG. We’d be remiss to not add the Texans are 8-1 UNDER at home when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. Update: This AFC South showdown has continued southward, now at 45.5. With Richardson scuffling and the Texans offense not the same with Nico Collins, we’ll follow the line movement.

Bet Percentage: Was UNDER 54%, now 73%

Doug’s Pick–Play UNDER

NEW -NFL – (285) Kansas City at (286) Las Vegas Total 41
Sunday, Oct. 27 – 4:25 p.m. ET / CBS

The total of 41 sounds low for the Chiefs and the Raiders, but it is easy to forget last Christmas the total was 40.5 and Last Vegas pulled the upset 20-14 for the easy UNDER. As we have seen, Kansas City is hardly explosive on offense this season, lacking in players with big play ability. The same is even more true for the Raiders, whose best offensive player is rookie TE Brock Bowers and there is no comparison between the two teams at QB. In this bitter rivalry, Bet Under on teams like the Black and Silver allowing 24 or more points a game, after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games. The UNDER is 75-35 in this situation.

Bet Percentage: UNDER 83%

Doug’s Pick – Play UNDER

NFL – (291) N.Y. Giants at (292) Pittsburgh -6.5 Total 36.5
Monday, October 28 – 8:15 p.m. ET / ABC/ESPN

It is most would agree, Giants QB Daniel Jones is in the bottom quarter of those playing his position and was not a good draft pick. Jones’ situation is made worse playing behind one of the five worst offensive lines in the NFL for 80% of his career and the 2024 version might by the most miserable yet. With Pittsburgh #2 in scoring defense, the total sinking (39 to 36.5) and the Steelers a rising home favorite (-4 to-6.5), it’s hard to find fault with either line move. Update: A modest buyback on Pittsburgh to -6 and about 30% of sportsbooks have yanked the total to 36. With the total this low, one Daniel Jones turnover can ruin how it looks this game should play out. Note, that poor road teams scoring 14-18 PPG, against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG), after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games are 71-29 OVER, with an average score of 42.6 points. On the side, the last 31 times Pittsburgh was home after scoring 30 points or more, they won by 9.0 PPG.

Bet Percentage: Was Steelers 77% & UNDER 90%, now 81% & 84%

Doug’s Pick – Steelers cover and OVER

NFL Top 3 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (9-11-1 record): Broncos, Lions and Jets

NFL Top 3 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (11-10 Record): Chiefs/Raiders UNDER, Giants/Steelers UNDER and Cardinals/Dolphins UNDER

Doug Upstone has been a decorated handicapper since 2003 and a sports betting writer since 2005. You can find Doug’s award-winning picks right here.