Gamblers World Line Moves: NFL Week 9

Early Line Moves for NFL Week 9

The lookahead lines continued to be torn apart far more in the NFL than in college football. The accuracy is not necessarily any better but the volume based on the percentage of games is exceptional along with differences in volatility. One aspect that has not changed is how well our free picks are doing at 14-6 the past three weeks. See you Friday.

NFL – (453) L.A. Chargers at (454) Cleveland +2, Total 42.5
Sunday, November 3 – 1:00 p.m. / CBS

Two weeks ago, Jameis Winston was the third-string quarterback for Cleveland. With injuries to Deshaun Watson and Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Winston was thrust back into a starting role. Last week Winston was the big reason for the Browns’ home upset of hated Baltimore. With Winston igniting the Cleveland offense, NFL bettors have lowered the Browns from +4.5 to +2 against the Los Angeles Chargers AND raised the total three points to 42.5. Betting the NFL, it’s madness week to week!

Early Bet Percentage: Browns 77% & OVER 58%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rated Chargers -2.5 and Total 40 – Back Friday

NFL – (459) Dallas at (460) Atlanta  Total 52
Sunday, November 3 – 1:00 p.m. ET / FOX

The average total score of a Dallas game this season is 49.7 points, with Atlanta at 48.7. That aligned with oddsmaker’s original release of 48.5. The betting masses are watching these two teams and have seen the Cowboys gouged for 77 points in their last two games and the Falcons allow 110 (27.5 PPG) in their past four outings. This has helped shove the total all the way to 52. Should we be looking the other way with Dallas 12-1 UNDER on the road after allowing six or more yards a play in their previous game?

Early Bet Percentage: OVER 80%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rated Total 50 – Back Friday

NFL – (463) Las Vegas at (464) Cincinnati -7.5
Sunday, November 3 – 1:00 p.m. ET / FOX

The Bengals have an elite quarterback in Joe Burrow and tremendous receivers. The Raiders have a history of great QBs and pass catchers, just not in the present day. Cincinnati’s defense has been torched for 26 to 41 points four times and the only reason it’s not more is because they faced dreadful QBs in the other games. The Raiders’ defense is overrated and has only held one team below 20 points this season. (Though the offense has placed them in several no-win spots.) When surveying the betting trend, despite heavy Cincy wagering, Las Vegas has tumbled from +9.5 to +7.5, suggesting sharp action. Color us curious moving ahead.

Early Bet Percentage: Bengals 83%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rated Bengals -8 – Back Friday

NFL – (469) Chicago at (470) Arizona  Total 44.5
Sunday, November 3 – 4:05 p.m. ET / CBS

For this NFC clash, the total took a dive like P Diddy’s popularity, beginning at 47 and now at 44.5. This has mostly to do with QB Caleb Williams and the Bears’ offense failing to score more than 16 points in three true away outings and 29.7 PPG at home or London. Arizona also contributes, because other than the 41 in home opener versus the Rams, the Cardinals are averaging less than 15 PPG in three other efforts in Glendale. Should we support the idea of home teams like the Redbirds averaging 5.8 or more yards per play, against a defense permitting 5.4 to 5.8 YPP, after allowing 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games are 32-9 UNDER?

Early Bet Percentage: OVER 86%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rated Total 46 – Back Friday

NFL – (471) L.A. Rams at (472) Seattle +1.5
Sunday, November 3– 4:25 p.m. ET / FOX

Seattle was sent out at -3 last week for this NFC West showdown. After the Seahawks were blasted at home by Buffalo 31-10 and the Rams with its two excellent pass catchers back, handled Minnesota by 10, Sean McVay’s squad is now the favorite at -1.5. This feels like too much of an overreaction in spite of how Matthew Stafford played so dramatically differently with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back in the lineup. Let’s not leave out the Seattle defense, who after conceding 43 total points in their first 12 quarters have been lit up for 30.4 PPG in their past five trips to the gridiron.

Early Bet Percentage: Rams 74%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rated Rams -1 – Back Friday

Get more NFL and college football line moves, free picks, and betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.