Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Week 10 Update

Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Week 10 Update

College Football Week 10 Lines Moves and Free Picks 

We head into crunch time for college football, the month of November. This is where dreams are made or dashed and we scoured the college football card at the start of the week for the largest early line moves. We are back on Friday with updates and free picks that are 35-25 on the season.

CFB – (325) Old Dominion at (326) App. State +2.5
Saturday, November 2  – 2:30 p.m. ET / ESPN+

After an 0-3 start, two against Power 4 conference teams, Old Dominion used the tough slate to build scar tissue and has rattled off three straight wins and covers to reach a first-place tie with Georgia Southern in the Sun Belt East, having just gouged them 47-19. App. State got back in the win column against Georgia State 33-26 to end a trio of setbacks for what’s been a disappointing year at 3-4. The Mountaineers were sent as a -2 home favorite, but mostly sharp money has made the Monarchs a 2.5-point favorite. Defense is the difference between these SBC foes lately, with ODU allowing 15.7 PPG and App State at 37.3 PPG. Update: The Monarchs have been moved up to -3. Despite App. State’s defensive woes, let’s call on them to show home pride and they are 6-1 SU after the first month of the season at home. Add in ODU is 0-6 ATS as favorite, including a loss this season to East Carolina and we’ll grab the points.

Bet Percentage: Was Old Dominion 68%, remained the same

Doug’s Pick – App. State covers

CFB – (345) Northwestern at (346) Purdue +1.5
Saturday, November 2 –12:00 p.m. ET / BTN

It’s been a rough year for both these Big Ten partners, especially Purdue at 1-6. The Boilermakers are being outscored by 18.1 PPG due in part to scoring only 30.3 PPG which is #119. Though Northwestern has the better record and still has a shot at a bowl at 3-5, they are even worse offensively at 18.4 PPG (#123). Nonetheless, the Wildcats point differential is only -3.7 PPG because of better defense and they were flipped from +1 to -1.5. The ‘Cats are 6-3 SU and ATS vs. the Boilers of late. Update: This Big Ten battle switched back to Purdue as the favorite and by even more than the starting number, now at -2.5. We looked for Northwestern injuries but couldn’t find anything. In truth, it’s hard to make a case for either club, but we found this. Teams with a money line of +135 to -155 like Purdue, after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games, winning 25% or less of their games on the season, are 38-13 SU, and more importantly have won by 4.5 PPG in this exact situation.

Bet Percentage: Was Northwestern 76%, now Purdue 62%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Purdue covers

CFB – (347) Minnesota at (348) Illinois +2.5
Saturday, November 2 – 12:00 p.m. ET / FS1

Illinois was not a match for #1 Oregon at Eugene, as the Ducks after building up a 35-3 lead at halftime, waddled to a 38-9 thumping. The Fighting Illini had several players leave the game and did not return, but early undocumented reports have most likely to play this week. If that information turns out true, Minnesota’s move from +1.5 to -2.5 point road favorite will be even more puzzling. The Golden Gophers are 5-3, on a three-game conference win streak and they like to play physical football. Maybe the Illini are coming back to earth as their defense has permitted over 500 yards in two of their last three outings and QB Luke Altmyer has just 241 yards passing the last two games, after averaging 242 YPG before that. Update: Despite even more money pouring in on Illinois, they are even a bigger home underdog at +3. This line doesn’t appear to make sense, however, quality power ratings we follow show Minnesota should be favored and with the Illini seeming to be slipping and having played an extremely physical contest, while the Golden Gophers are off a bye, we’ll side with the fresher crew.

Bet Percentage: Was Illinois 59%, now 81%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Minnesota covers

NEW – CFB – (353) Florida vs. (354) Georgia -14.5,
Saturday, November 2 – 3:30 p.m. ET / ABC

With Florida having shown improvement in winning three of their past four games, let’s be honest, they should have knocked off Tennessee also, before succumbing in OT. The Gators have fallen three points to +14.5. This starts a brutal four-game stretch for Florida with coach Billy Napier trying to hang on to his job. That’s one of the main questions about the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, how many more points is Kirby Smart and his staff over Napier and his coaches? The Bulldogs are on a 6-1 (5-2 ATS) run in this series. Georgia held Clemson and Texas to 15 or less points. If Smart’s guys have one or fewer turnovers, they win or cover, if they have more, they bring Florida into the game. Let’s side with the former.

Bet Percentage: Georgia 69%

Doug’s Pick – Georgia covers

CFB – (363) Arizona State at (364) Oklahoma State +1
Saturday, November 2 – 7:00 p.m. ET / FS1

After a bit of a shaky 3-0 start, Oklahoma State has dropped five in a row. A massive issue is a defense that is #102 in points allowed and next to last in college football at this level in total defense. Many believed Arizona State would be among the teams closest to the bottom of the Big 12 this but at 5-2 overall, a victory in Stillwater sends them bowling, with maybe a better destination if they keep winning. This is our third consecutive ‘flipper’ with the Sun Devils at -1 after being released at +1. With ASU off a bye and the better defensive club, they’ll have a shot. Update: Coach Mike Gundy at home as been a good bet for years, but not so in 2024 and Arizona State has sharp money pumping them up all the way to -4.5. This number feels out of whack with Okie State 9-2 ATS as a Big 12 home underdog.

Bet Percentage: Was Oklahoma State 60%, now 79%

Doug’s Pick – Oklahoma State covers

CFB – (397) Ohio State at (398) Penn State  Total 46.5
Saturday, November 2 – 12:00 p.m. ET / FOX

With the exact status of Penn State starting QB Drew Allar unknown after leaving the Nittany Lions 28-13 triumph at Wisconsin in the first half, there is an uneasiness in State College. We found it intriguing the total would slip from 48 to 46.5, but the side ever so slightly with Penn State at +4 compared to +3.5 early last week. These two highly ranked squads are 6-2 UNDER in recent battles, will it be more of the same? Update: According to multiple sources, Allar is expected to start. How mobile he’ll be won’t be known until he starts playing. With that, the total moved slightly upward to 47. We still like someone winning 23-20 to 24-20 and the Nittany Lions are 6-0 UNDER versus teams allowing 310 or fewer yards a game.

Bet Percentage: Was Over 60%, now 71% UNDER

Doug’s Pick – Take UNDER

 CFB Top 5 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (25-20 record): Baylor, Illinois, N.C. State, Oklahoma State and Washington

CFB Top 5 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (25-20 record): Virginia Tech/Syracuse OVER, North Carolina/Florida St. OVER, Texas A&M/South Carolina UNDER, Navy/Rice OVER and TCU/Baylor OVER

Get more college football betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.