Gamblers World Line Moves: NFL Week 9 Update

GamblersWORLD NFL Week 9 Updated Line Moves and Free Picks

The lookahead lines continued to be torn apart far more in the NFL than in college football. The accuracy is not necessarily any better but the volume based on the percentage of games is exceptional along with differences in volatility. One aspect that has not changed is how well our free picks are doing at 14-6 the past three weeks. Enjoyed the updated information.

NFL – (453) L.A. Chargers at (454) Cleveland +2, Total 42.5
Sunday, November 3 – 1:00 p.m. / CBS

Two weeks ago, Jameis Winston was the third-string quarterback for Cleveland. With injuries to Deshaun Watson and Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Winston was thrust back into a starting role. Last week Winston was the big reason for the Browns’ home upset of hated Baltimore. With Winston igniting the Cleveland offense, NFL bettors have lowered the Browns from +4.5 to +2 against the Los Angeles Chargers AND raised the total three points to 42.5. Betting the NFL, it’s madness week to week! Update: The Chargers continue to slide now at -1.5. The total went slightly backward to 42, but is still three digits higher from its starting spot. We get the love for Jameis, but Bolts pass defensive is much better than the Ravens. Also, Cleveland lost leading tackler Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and top corner Denzel Ward for this contest. We’re not on the Winston Hype-Train (sponsored by Dr. Pepper) and looking for more field goals than touchdowns.

Bet Percentage: Was Browns 77% & OVER 58%, 75% and 52%

Doug’s Pick – Leans Chargers and UNDER

NFL – (459) Dallas at (460) Atlanta  Total 52 
Sunday, November 3 – 1:00 p.m. ET / FOX

The average total score of a Dallas game this season is 49.7 points, with Atlanta at 48.7. That aligned with oddsmaker’s original release of 48.5. The betting masses are watching these two teams and have seen the Cowboys gouged for 77 points in their last two games and the Falcons allow 110 (27.5 PPG) in their past four outings. This has helped shove the total all the way to 52. Should we be looking the other way with Dallas 12-1 UNDER on the road after allowing six or more yards a play in their previous game? Update: The adjusted number of 52 remains at about 70% of sportsbooks, with the rest lowering their total to 51.5. Though we believe the current number is about right, but with the Cowboys 12-0 UNDER on the road after playing away from home, we’ll look in that direction.

Bet Percentage: Was OVER 80%, now 52% OVER

Doug’s Pick – Lean UNDER

NEW -NFL – (461) Denver at (462) Baltimore Total 46.5
Sunday, November 3 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS

In this AFC action, the total has shot up three points to 46.5 during the week. It’s become redundant to think that will happen again with Baltimore 7-1 OVER. The Ravens have the #2 offense at over 30 PPG and their atrocious pass defense is the worst in the league. If you think the Ravens have surrendered a lot of points in the 4^th quarter, you are correct, 93 to be exact, which is 14 points more than the next worst club (Jacksonville -79). With Bo Nix regularly improving and the Broncos confident with a 4-0 SU road record, the OVER is the play.

Bet Percentage: OVER 66%

Doug’s Pick – Play OVER

NFL – (463) Las Vegas at (464) Cincinnati -7.5
Sunday, November 3 – 1:00 p.m. ET / FOX

The Bengals have an elite quarterback in Joe Burrow and tremendous receivers. The Raiders have a history of great QBs and pass catchers, just not in the present day. Cincinnati’s defense has been torched for 26 to 41 points four times and the only reason it’s not more is because they faced dreadful QBs in the other games. The Raiders’ defense is overrated and has only held one team below 20 points this season. (Though the offense has placed them in several no-win spots.) When surveying the betting trend, despite heavy Cincy wagering, Las Vegas has tumbled from +9.5 to +7.5, suggesting sharp action. Color us curious moving ahead. Update: The wise guy money continues in spite of public sentiment, as Cincinnati is listed at -7. This is painful to do, but the Raiders are 8-1 ATS versus poor defensive teams allowing 350 yards a game, we’ll take the full touchdown and hope not to be Gardner Minshewed by turnovers.

Bet Percentage: Was Bengals 83%, now 74%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Raiders

NFL – (469) Chicago at (470) Arizona  Total 44.5
Sunday, November 3 – 4:05 p.m. ET / CBS

For this NFC clash, the total took a dive like P Diddy’s popularity, beginning at 47 and now at 44.5. This has mostly to do with QB Caleb Williams and the Bears’ offense failing to score more than 16 points in three true away outings and 29.7 PPG at home or London. Arizona also contributes, because other than the 41 in home opener versus the Rams, the Cardinals are averaging less than 15 PPG in three other efforts in Glendale. Should we support the idea of home teams like the Redbirds averaging 5.8 or more yards per play, against a defense permitting 5.4 to 5.8 YPP, after allowing 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games are 32-9 UNDER? Update: The total has remained unmoved at 44.5. However, Arizona was +1.5 and now are 1.5-point home fave. Is there the belief Chicago will have mental carryover from blowing last week’s contest against the Commandoes (personal choice on name)? Or with the Cardinals having won two consecutive times for the first time in three years, do they stay hot at home? Da Bears are 5-0 OVER after a loss by three or fewer points and we’ll say they also cover because of their defense.

Bet Percentage: Was OVER 86%, 52% UNDER & Bears 75%

Doug’s Pick – Play OVER and Bears cover

NFL – (471) L.A. Rams at (472) Seattle +1.5
Sunday, November 3 – 4:25 p.m. ET / FOX

Seattle was sent out at -3 last week for this NFC West showdown. After the Seahawks were blasted at home by Buffalo 31-10 and the Rams with its two excellent pass catchers back, handled Minnesota by 10, Sean McVay’s squad is now the favorite at -1.5. This feels like too much of an overreaction in spite of how Matthew Stafford played so dramatically differently with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back in the lineup. Let’s not leave out the Seattle defense, who after conceding 43 total points in their first 12 quarters have been lit up for 30.4 PPG in their past five trips to the gridiron. Update: Los Angeles is still the favorite on Friday, just dipping to -1. That Seattle defense is a real concern and the Seahawks are 0-6 ATS after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in three straight games.

Bet Percentage: Was Rams 74%, now 67%

Doug’s Pick – Rams cover

NFL Top 3 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (11-12-1 record): Chiefs, Bears and Bills

NFL Top 3 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (12-12 Record): Commanders/Giants OVER, Patriots/Titans OVER and Lions/Packers UNDER

Doug Upstone has been a decorated handicapper since 2003 and a sports betting writer since 2005. You can find Doug’s award-winning picks right here.