Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Week 11

College Football Week 11 Early Lines Moves

If you have been following the Line Moves here all season, you might notice that this week has the shortest spreads of the season. That typically happens in November when the oddsmakers put out sharper numbers and bettor’s attention gravitates to more marquee matchups. We are back on Friday with updates and free picks that are 38-28 on the season.

CFB – (133) Navy at (134) South Florida  Total 57.5
Saturday, November 9 – 12:00 p.m. ET / ESPN2

After a shocking 6-0 start, Navy dropped two straight. The first was expected in facing Notre Dame but not last week in soggy Houston, falling to Rice 24-10. After committing just two turnovers in winning six straight, the Midshipmen have eight in their previous two games. South Florida has won its last two to return to .500 and has a shot again to be bowl-eligible. The Bulls offense has perked up facing less competition with 35 and 44 points and the total is up two points to 57.5. It’s worth noting the Middies are 6-2 OVER on the road after an away game.

Early Bet Percentage: OVER 59%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rated Total 56 – Back Friday

CFB – (151) UCF at (152) Arizona State -3
Saturday, November 9 –7:00 p.m. ET / ESPN2

Arizona State was expected to do even worse in the Big 12 than they were in the Pac-12 this season. However, ASU coach Ken Dillingham worked to distance himself from the program’s past and has his team at a stunning 6-2. The Sun Devils have a tough schedule in their last three contests, but it is a bit of a surprise they lowered to -3 from -5.5 against 4-5 SU Central Florida. The Knights ended their five-game losing streak with a demolition of Arizona 56-12, but they still need two triumphs to go bowling. The public is all over UCF and power ratings back it up, yet, you lose this many games in a row not sure where the respect comes from.

Early Bet Percentage: UCF 87%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rated UCF -1 – Back Friday

CFB – (175) Utah State at (176) Washington State Total 70
Saturday, November 9 – 10:30 p.m. ET / CW Network

In spite of a tumultuous off-season, Washington State coach Jake Dickert has kept his club focused on just playing football and the Cougars are 7-1 with their only setback at Boise State. Washington State is in the Top 20 in scoring (38.1 PPG) and total offense (448.8 YPG). Wazzou will host Utah State, who is among the worst defensive groups in the country. The Aggies surrender 41.5 PPG (#132/next to last) and are #131 in yards allowed at almost 500 per contest. Little wonder the total has climbed from 68.5 to 70 points. Utah State should have a good chance to score their season average of 28.8 PPG, with the Cougars permitting 26.9 PPG.

Early Bet Percentage: OVER 57%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rated Total 73 – Back Friday

CFB – (177) Arkansas State at (178) Louisiana -16.5
Saturday, November 9 – 7:00 p.m. ET / ESPN+

For many, this matchup won’t mean much, but to these two squads in the Sun Belt West, it means everything. Louisiana is atop the SBC West at 4-0 (7-1 SU on the year). Arkansas State is second at 3-1 (5-3 SU) but is outscored by 7.4 PPG. However, that is because they lost at Iowa State by 45 and by 33 at Texas State. The Ragin’ Cajuns run a well-balanced offense that is #26 in yardage. Louisiana throws the ball vertically very well, averaging 8.8 yards per pass attempt (YPPA) which is #17. Football bettors have pounded the home team and moved the Cajuns three points to -16.5. ULL is 10-1 and 7-3-1 ATS as hosts in the confrontation.

Early Bet Percentage: Louisiana 80%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rated Louisiana -17 – Back Friday

CFB – (195) Florida State at (196) Notre Dame -26
Saturday, November 9 – 7:30 p.m. ET / NBC

If you go back to the summertime when college football lines were first released, you could have picked up Notre Dame for -4 in what was expected to be a matchup to rival Alabama vs. LSU this Saturday. Instead, the Seminoles are one the greatest collapses for a team ranked in the Top 10 to begin the year. Florida State is currently +26 after opening up at +24.5 on the lookahead line. If you know anything about coach Mike Norvell at Memphis or Florida State it is inconceivable he would be in charge of an offense that ranks next to last in scoring and total offense. It feels like the Fighting Irish can pick what they want the final score to be.

Early Bet Percentage: Notre Dame 78%

Doug’s Pick – Power Rated Notre Dame -26 – Back Friday

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