Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Week 12 Update

Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Week 12 Update

College Football Week 12 Lines Moves and Free Picks

The early line moves for this week are mostly focused on – under the radar – games with one exception. It would seem the oddsmakers did a very good job, which explains the lack of noise to start the week. It’s Friday, which means updates and free picks that are 42-29 ATS (59.1%) on the season.

CFB – (329) Florida Atlantic at (330) Temple  -2.5
Saturday, November 16 – 2:00 p.m. ET / ESPN+

It seems peculiar this AAC clash would draw enough betting attention to move the point spread but it has. This pair of 2-7 squads should only draw flies from the stink, but instead, Temple went from -1 to -2.5 in this battle of Owls. In reviewing the stats, there’s not much to go with and it is impossible to believe FAU coach Tom Herman was considered one the best young and upcoming coaches in college football at Houston and hired and later fired by Texas. Now, Herman is failing here in his second year. Maybe Herman at 1-5 ATS in November is a good enough reason to support Temple. Update: For the most part, the -2.5 has held up, but close to 30 percent of sportsbooks are hovering at -2. Not much to choose from, thus, we’ll let the situational side of handicapping determine the choice. FAU is 0-5 ATS allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game and 1-8 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56 (currently 51).

Bet Percentage: Was Temple 69%, now FAU 84%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Temple covers

CFB – (337) South Florida at (338) Charlotte  Total 53
Saturday, November 16 – 3:30 p.m. ET / ESPN+

With games like this, it doesn’t take much money to move a total. It could be one person the sportsbooks respect putting a decent amount of cash on the total to shift the number from 51.5 to 53. We have no way of knowing this is true but it would make sense with two teams fighting to reach .500 to become bowl eligible. Charlotte is 6-3 OVER compared to South Florida at 5-3-1 UNDER. However, we did uncover the Bulls are 5-0 OVER this month on the road since 2022. Update: This total continued to surge, all the way to 55. We’ll play along with two weaker defenses and share that USF is 5-0 OVER in November on the road while Charlotte is 11-3 OVER after a loss by 17 or more points.

Bet Percentage: Was OVER 55%, now 75%

Doug’s Pick – Play OVER

CFB – (341) Louisiana Tech at (342) Western Kentucky  Total 53
Saturday, November 16 – 12:00 p.m. ET / CBSSN

Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State remain unbeaten in Conference USA play and might meet in back-to-back games since they face each other in their final regular season confrontation. First, each team needs to keep posting W’s. The Hilltoppers are known for their offense, but not so much this season. There is nothing wrong with averaging 30.3 PPG but this program is typically on either side of 40 PPG. Just the fact this total was lifted two points to 53 says something. It should not go unnoticed the average total score of a Louisiana Tech game is only 45.7. Update: We had a one-point buyback as the week went along to 52. We are on board with the direction of the line movement, with how the Bulldogs play this season and with the Hilltoppers not as explosive as in the past.

Bet Percentage: Was OVER 57%, now 79% UNDER

Doug’s Pick–Play UNDER

CFB – (347) Clemson at (348) Pittsburgh  Total 54
Saturday, November 16 – 12:00 p.m. ET / ESPN

This is Clemson’s last ACC game and their chance to play for the conference championship even with a victory is out of their control. Still, the Tigers want to finish 10-2 and make this the best possible season. Pittsburgh wasn’t garnering much attention despite starting 7-0, but the last two weeks have shown why that was correct, losing by 23 at SMU and coming home and failing to ignite in falling to Virginia 24-19. After looking so sharp offensively, the Panthers have scored 25 points or less in three of their last four outings, The Tigers’ offense has also been inept the past two weeks at 21 and 24 points. With these general trends, the total has dipped from 56 to 54 points. Update: The total slide again down to 53. The bigger news is despite the money on Pitt, Clemson has climbed from -9 Monday, to -10 Wednesday, and Friday afternoon is -11.5. Panthers Q Eli Holstein was 50-50 to play early in the week and is now reported as a “game time decision”. It seems sharp bettors are counting on him not to play which explains the total and side both moving. We are not excited about laying more than 10 points with the Tigers on the road, but not fired up about Pittsburgh either. We’ll back the lower total on the premise the info has the Pitt QB out.

Bet Percentage: Was UNDER 56%, now 53% and Pittsburgh 65%

Doug’s Pick – Play UNDER, lean Clemson covers

CFB – (351) Arkansas State at (352) Georgia State -2
Saturday, November 16 – 5:00 p.m. ET / ESPN+

Arkansas State was blown out by Louisiana 55-19 last week, but still has three more chances to be bowl-eligible and have a winning record in the regular season. The Red Wolves are 5-4, yet were flipped from a -1 to +2 point underdog at Georgia State. The Panthers are 2-7 and winless in the Sun Belt, yet, was made a favorite. We searched for an Arky State quarterback injury and did not come across one. This like many SBC contests is lightly bet, so someone who thinks they know something must have plunked down Panthers’ money. Update: Georgia State has been taken to -3 and frankly we’re baffled. The Panthers are on a 0-6 and 0-4-2 ATS run. Arky State is 3-2 in SBC play and both losses came against high-powered offenses from Texas State and Louisiana. Georgia State is averaging 17.6 PPG in conference play. You know what to do.

Bet Percentage: Was Georgia State 60%, now Arkansas St. 60%

Doug’s Pick – Arkansas State covers

NEW – CFB – (375) Boston College at (376) SMU
Saturday, November 16 – 3:30 p.m. ET / ESPN

The Texas Longhorns fell from -15 to -12 against Arkansas, yet, the line movement on this ACC clash was even greater. SMU was sent out at -14.5 and has blown up like -19.5. This likely happened partly because Boston College QB Castellanos was benched in favor of Grayson James. Another aspect is the Eagles beat SMU in the Fenway Bowl last year, making this a revenge spot for the Mustangs. For the rest, one can assume SMU is the lone ACC unbeaten and looks very strong. Can we see the Ponies winning by 21 or more? We can also imagine SMU races off to a monster lead and lets, as they did against Pittsburgh, though the spread was much smaller. We’ll begrudgingly go along with this. Home teams after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, winning 80% or more of their games, and playing a team with a winning record are 39-12 ATS.

Bet Percentage: SMU 81%

Doug’s Pick – Lean SMU covers

CFB Top 5 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (30-25 record): Oregon, Texas State, FAU, Georgia Southern and Air Force

CFB Top 5 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (28-26-1 record): Tennessee/Georgia UNDER, Rutgers/Maryland OVER, Washington State/New Mexico OVER, Coastal Carolina/Marshall OVER and San Diego State/UNLV OVER

Get more college football betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.