Gamblers World Line Moves: NFL Week 11 Update

Gamblers World Line Moves: NFL Week 11 Update

By Doug Upstone

We push on to Week 11 and totals continue to move dramatically as they have all season early in the week. Though we had line movement for the side and total for the Jaguars vs Lions matchup, we passed because the look-ahead line included Jacksonville playing QB Trevor Lawrence, who missed last week’s contest and is “questionable” as of Tuesday this week. WE are back with all the updates and Free Picks (20-13 L5 weeks).

NFL – (451) Green Bay at (452) Chicago +6, Total 41 – Sunday, November 107– 1:00 p.m. / FOX

It has been a wild few days in the Windy City concerning the Chicago Bears. The city wants everyone fired and completely new owners after losing badly to New England at home. Football bettors do not like the Bears either, who moved from +2.5 to +6 against the hated rival Green Bay Packers.

And they are not looking for QB Caleb Williams to have a big game, dropping the total four points to 41. With Green Bay off a bye and 15-5 SU and ATS at Soldier Field since 2005 (UNDER 11-9), it’s hard to argue with bettors early on. Update: Green Bay was as high as -6.5 before going backward to -5.5 and the total went down one more click to 40.5. There is social media talk of a fair amount of sharp money on Chicago, which means betting against the Packers on a 10-0 SU and ATS run in this series. The total at this price offers no value on the Under and it is worth noting the Packers are 7-0 OVER in road games when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points.

Bet Percentage: Was Packers 83% & UNDER 55%, Now 77% & 81%

Doug’s Pick – Play OVER, side a Premium Play

NFL – (263) Cleveland at (264) New Orleans  Total 44.5 – Sunday, November 17 – 1:00 p.m. ET / FOX

The total climbed from 42 to 44.5 and it is not abundantly clear why. Cleveland’s off a bye, yet is averaging 16.4 PPG this season. The New Orleans defense is beatable, but do the Browns have the weapons to exploit them? The Saints are averaging 17 PPG since registering 91 points in their initial two outings, which feels like three seasons ago. The Cleveland defense is nothing special at #16 in total defense and permitting 23.7 PPG. This is a figure to watch this week for further movement. Update: We have a bit of a buyback to 44 heading into the weekend. Given the two quarterbacks in this affair, mistakes and turnovers are bound to happen. Will that add points or take them away? Somebody wins 23-20, which makes this an UNDER.

Bet Percentage: Was, OVER 54%, now UNDER 55%

Doug’s Pick – Lean UNDER

NFL – (457) Baltimore (458) Pittsburgh  Total 48.5  – Sunday, November 17 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS

While many thought Russell Wilson was washed up after his showing in Denver (guilty here), he revitalized the Pittsburgh offense and is among the reasons why the Steelers are 8-2. Despite Pittsburgh being #2 in points allowed (16.2 PPG) in the NFL, this AFC North total has risen like baked bread to 48.5, four full points from the original starting position. Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore offense and defense offer contributing factors as well. Strangely enough, this is the Steelers’ first division encounter of the year and they are 7-1 UNDER vs. the Ravens the last four years. Update: Betting markets like the total in this important battle right where it is, unchanged all week. Here is information you won’t find everywhere. Since 2020, road teams like the Ravens scoring 27 or more points a game, after scoring and allowing 30 points or more in the last game, are 22-4 UNDER. Interesting right?

Bet Percentage: Was OVER 93%, now 80%

Doug’s Pick – Play UNDER

NEW – NFL – (463) Minnesota at (464) Tennessee  Total 39.5 – Sunday, November 17 – 1:00 p.m. ET / CBS

Minnesota is #3 in points surrendered and Tennessee is #2 in total defense. Neither offense is doing much of anything in changing numbers on the scoreboard in their last three outings, with the Vikings averaging 17.7 PPG and the Titans at 17 PPG. That has helped lower the total by two points to 39.5. Sam Darnold is regressing game by game and taking the Vikes offense with him. And Will Levis might sell Mayo, but nobody is buying he’s ready to become a Top 10 QB in this league. We agree on where this total is headed and not looking for a higher score unless the two ball-chuckers are in charge of a turnover-fest.

Bet Percentage: UNDER 72%

Doug’s Pick – Rams cover

NFL – (467) Atlanta at (468) Denver -2 – Sunday, November 17 – 4:05 p.m. ET / FOX

With no major injuries showing on the Atlanta Falcons reports, it is eyebrow-raising to see Denver flip from +2.5 to -2. One could make the argument Atlanta should never have been favored and no question that the Falcons losing a very winnable game at New Orleans and the Broncos doing the same thing at Kansas City has impacted the line movement. Nonetheless, if Younghoe Koo doesn’t miss three field goals after his Atlanta teammates out-gained New Orleans by 103 yards on the road, at best, Denver is -1. Stay tuned. Update: Midweek there were reports Kirk Cousins might not play and Michael Penix Jr. was taking snaps in practice. That story drew no response for line movement. On Thursday, Cousins was a full participant and still crickets. One of the tougher games on the board is the opinion here. The slightest of leans with the Broncos as the last 57 times an underdog was coming off one or more consecutive losses, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season, they’ve lost by 8.1 PPG.

Bet Percentage: Was Broncos 54%, now 60%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Broncos cover

NFL – (471) Cincinnati at (472) L.A. Chargers  Total 46 – Sunday, November 17 – 8:20 p.m. ET / NBC

As good as the Chargers’ defense is, ranked #1 in fewest points given up (13.1), the power of Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ #26 defense in points surrendered (26.2) is more overwhelming. The Cincy dual threat combo of scoring and conceding points has shoved the total to 47 from 43 on the look-ahead line. Tempo will dictate the totals outcome with the Bengals 7-3 OVER and the Bolts 7-2 UNDER. Update: No slowing down this total, juiced up to 48 points. There is good reason for this as Los Angeles went up to -3 but is back to -1.5 with wise guy money backing the Bengals. Cincinnati has to score to have a chance, thus, a higher total aligns with the thinking. However, we are headed in the opposite direction as road teams scoring 24 or more points a game, after allowing 35 points or more last game are 22-4 UNDER in their next outing.

Bet Percentage: Was OVER 90%, unchanged

Doug’s Pick – Play UNDER

NFL Top 3 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (12-17-1 record): Lions, Dolphins and 49ers

NFL Top 3 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (16-14 Record): Bengals/Chargers OVER, Texans/Cowboys UNDER and Packers/Bears UNDER