Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Week 14 Update

Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Week 14 Update

College Football Week 14 Lines Moves and Free Picks

Strangely, either all or almost every college football total was spot on, or most bettors were focused on sides by Monday afternoon because we didn’t have any big totals line moves for the first time all season. Because this updated article isn’t published until Friday afternoon, we won’t list any Black Friday games listed. We are back with all the updates as we look to better our Free Picks record of 49-35 ATS.

CFB – (343) TCU at (344) Cincinnati  +3
Saturday, November 30 – 6:00 p.m. ET / ESPN+

With TCU 4-1 SU down the stretch and Cincinnati stumbling and bumbling to become bowl-eligible, the Horned Frogs have jumped from -1.5 to -3 point Big 12 road favorites. Since beating Arizona State at home 24-14, the Bearcats defense has been gashed for 35 PPG. TCU’s offense has hit its stride in their past four outings averaging 39 PPG. Will Cincy become bowl-eligible on its fifth straight try? Update: TCU has inched up to -3.5, in spite of a complete flip towards the Bearcats. We’d like to take a desperate Cincy team as a home underdog needing a win, but when things go wrong for the crew from Ohio, it’s not easy for them to turn it around as their 1-10 ATS record shows after one or more consecutive losses against the spread.

Bet Percentage: Was TCU 75%, now Cincinnati 82%

Doug’s Pick – Lean TCU covers

CFB – (349) Pittsburgh at (350) Boston College -5
Saturday, November 30 – 3:00 p.m. ET / CW Network

Pittsburgh is in free fall. After a shocking 7-0 start, the Panthers have dropped four in a row. If Pitt were 7-4 coming into their final regular contest with a mixture of wins and losses during the season, nobody would have given it a thought. But with two distinctly different streaks, football bettors moved Pittsburgh from +2.5 to +5 road underdog in Chestnut Hill. Boston College is on a 4-0 ATS move (2-2 SU), having played both Louisville and SMU tough. B.C. is 6-0 ATS after outrushing the opponent by 125 or more yards last game. Update: A small buyback on Pitt to +4.5. There is ample reason to believe the Eagles will fly away with this one and they are 6-0 ATS after outrushing their last opponent by 125 or more yards last game. Maybe that happens, yet, we’ll say Pitt circles the wagons and makes this a three-point game either way and hope not to have cranberry sauce on face by being incorrect.

Bet Percentage: Was Boston College 84%, now 68%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Pittsburgh covers

CFB – (353) Florida at (354) Florida State +15
Saturday, November 30 – 7:00 p.m. ET / ESPN2

Well, the good news for Florida State; they finally won another game, crushing Charleston Southern last Saturday 41-7. As you might imagine the betting public was WAY more impressed with Florida upsetting highly ranked Ole Miss in Gainesville and that has the Gators crawling from -13 to -15. Florida is 5-6 and 6-5 ATS this century in Tallahassee and they have edges across the board on the field. Nonetheless, this still feels like a big number. Update: This is still a mystery who Florida State was so close to making the Final 4 last year and since losing QB Jordan Travis to injury, the Seminoles are one the worst clubs in college football. The Noles are up to +16.5 and it’s near impossible to make a case for them, with the rival Gators improved.

Bet Percentage: Was Florida 71%, now 75%

Doug’s Pick – Florida covers

CFB – (391) Houston at (392) BYU -13
Saturday, November 30 – 10:15 p.m. ET / ESPN

After losing consecutive games, BYU not only has to defeat Houston but get some help from who Arizona State and Iowa State are playing to make the Big 12 title tilt. The Cougars’ offense has cratered in averaging 19.3 PPG in their last three, which is almost half of what they scored in their previous half-dozen starts. Even with these issues, BYU still has ample support to go from -11.5 to -13 against Houston. The Cougars are in a rebuild and though the defense has done a good job in holding opposing clubs to 22.3 PPG, their offense is the worst in college football at 13.6 PPG. Yet, with BYU’s offensive woes, can they cover this large a figure? Update: No change in the point spread with the Cougs still at -13. There is little doubt BYU won’t win, the trepidation is they have scored 19.3 PPG in their past three outings and Houston’s solid on D in permitting 22.3 PPG. The totals only 41.5, so does 28-14 work? We’ll lean that way because the Cougars from Texas turn the ball and what BYU extracts from that could be the difference.

Bet Percentage: Was BYU 71%, now 66%

Doug’s Pick – Lean BYU covers

NEW -CFB – (409) Kansas at (410) Baylor +1.5
Saturday, November 30 – 12:00 p.m. ET / ESPN2

Of all the fun games for Rivalry Week, what a storyline this Big 12 clash has. Kansas is 5-6 and needs a victory to be bowl-eligible. After upsetting Iowa State, BYU and Colorado, the Jayhawks are the first losing team in college football history to knock off three consecutive ranked opponents. With that, the Jayhawks were flipped from +1.5 to -1.5 at Baylor. Yet, what’s wrong with the Bears? Absolutely nothing. Baylor has won and covered five in a row to reach 6-5 and they playing at home in Waco. While Kansas is very capable of winning, road favorites after one or more straight up wins, against an opponent after four or more consecutive SU wins, are 14-42 ATS. Take the Bears.

Bet Percentage: Kansas 77%

Doug’s Pick – Baylor covers

CFB – (413) Texas at (414) Texas A&M +6
Saturday, November 30 – 7:00 p.m. ET / ABC

The lookahead line had Texas a -4.5 and that was raised to -6 despite reports circulating that Texas QB Quinn Ewers suffered an ankle injury versus Kentucky. Ewers appeared hampered after the second quarter injury and an MRI revealed a sprain, but not a bad one. With Georgia winning any tiebreakers in the SEC and advancing to the conference championship, this renewed rivalry is an elimination game for who the Bulldogs will play. After their triple OT loss at Auburn, Texas A&M at 8-3 probably has to win this week and next to assure a playoff bid. Update: In surveying the books, the Aggies were lowered to +5 or +5.5, almost evenly split, with an influx of Aggies cash. Though these have not met in 13 years, the animosity is real and will be on full display. As Georgia showed, the way to beat Texas is to pressure QB Quinn Ewers, and Texas A&M has the NFL talent on the defensive line to do that. Make this a three-point outcome either way.

Bet Percentage: Was Texas 52%, now Texas A&M 72%

Doug’s Pick – Texas A&M covers

CFB Top 5 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (35-30 record): Kansas State, Arkansas, Troy, Air Force and Cincinnati

CFB Top 5 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (34-30-1 record): Miami-FL/Syracuse OVER, Arkansas/Missouri UNDER, Notre Dame/USC OVER, UTSA/Army OVER and UAB/Charlotte OVER

Get more college football betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.