Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Bowls Dec. 21-26

College Football Bowls Dec. 21-26

The bowl season continues and we have the latest Line Moves over the next several days for college football, along with Free Picks which have done quite well at 59-40 ATS this season.

CFB – (213) SMU vs. (214) Penn State  Total 53 

Saturday, December 21 – 12:00 p.m. ET / TNT

CFP Game 2 – In the first playoff game on Saturday, we had a rising total climbing from 52 to 54.5 points, before it dove back to 53. SMU is undersized on the defensive front and lacks elite players in the secondary. That’s not entirely their fault coming from the American Conference to the ACC, there is always an adjustment. Against teams having above-average offenses, the Mustangs allowed; TCU 42 points, Louisville 27, Duke 27, Boston Coll. 28, and Clemson 34. Penn State only permitted 16.4 PPG, yet against USC and Oregon, who can run and throw the ball, they permitted 30 and 45 points respectively. SMU has the team speed to create problems for the Nittany Lions.

Bet Percentage: OVER 71%

Doug’s Pick – Play OVER

CFB – (215) Clemson vs. (216) Texas  Total 50.5

Saturday, December 21 – 4:00 p.m. ET / ABC/ESPN

CFP Game 3 – The opening total of 53 felt like a good number, but upon further inspection that feeling dissipated. The average score total score of a Clemson game is just over 55 points, however, on the road that falls to 48. Texas in Austin has a total score of 53.2, which matches the initial release. Yet, in three of their last four contests, QB Quinn Ewers and the Longhorns offense has tallied 20 or fewer points. We’re not expecting Texas to just click on offense, though it’s always possible. The Tigers are 8-1 UNDER on the road with the Horns 5-0 UNDER playing against a team with a winning record.

Bet Percentage: UNDER 81%

Doug’s Pick–Play UNDER

CFB – (223) South Florida vs. (224) San Jose State Total 62.5

Tuesday, December 24 – 8:00 p.m. ET / ESPN

Hawai’i Bowl – The last football matchup before Christmas is in Hawai’i which draws a decent TV ratings number for those football bettors that have nothing to do on Christmas Eve. San Jose State has bounced around a bit from its opening of -2.5, reaching as high as -4.5 on Dec. 17 but mostly returning to -3. The total was 62.5, with it falling and hovering around 60 to 60.5 most of the week before returning to its initial starting point. South Florida makes the long journey and they have played three consecutive Overs and five of six, while San Jose State’s has slowed and the Spartans will be without a couple of receivers. The thinking is here a few touchdown chances turn into field goals and that makes the UNDER the call.

Bet Percentage: UNDER 62%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Under

CFB – (225) Pittsburgh vs. (226) Toledo -7

Thursday, December 26 – 2:00 p.m. ET / ESPN

GameAbove Sports Bowl – The first bowl on the other side of Santa dropping off the presents is the former Motor City Bowl with another new sponsor. The MAC almost always has one team to help with attendance and Toledo is this year’s participant. Pittsburgh is the Rockets’ opponent and after a shocking 7-0 start, they finished an equally shocking 0-5. The Panthers have slid two points from -9 to -7. The portal plays a part, especially losing long-time QB and occasional starter Nate Yarnell with regular starter Eli Holstein – questionable a week before the game. Pitt has more talent on both sides of the ball to go along with a speed advantage. We’re not sure how motivated Pitt will be so follow their QB situation. If Holstein plays, maybe take Pittsburgh (note: the line could go back up), if not, Toledo might be worth a look.

Bet Percentage: Toledo 81%

Doug’s Pick – Follow Preview

CFB – (229) Arkansas State vs. (230) Bowling Green Total 51

Thursday, December 26 – 9:00 p.m. ET / ESPN

68 Ventures Bowl – The total in the SBC-MAC matchup was sent out at 49 and settled at 51 a week before the contest. Bowling Green only conceded 20.3 PPG with their worst showing was only giving up 34 points at Penn State and they finished 7-5. Arkansas State was also 7-5 thanks to closing 4-2. The Red Wolves defense surrenders 33.2 PPG and are equal opportunity, allowing 226 YPG on the ground and 234 YPG via the pass.  The Sun Belt owned the MAC for several years, but since the portal, their rosters have annually weakened and it shows up the most on defense where they used to have a speed edge. The Falcons only average 144 yards rushing but if they get close to 200 as expected, this contest goes OVER.

Bet Percentage: OVER 82%

Doug’s Pick – Lean OVER

CFB Top 3 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (40-36 record): Rutgers, South Florida and Toledo

CFB Top 3 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (38-36-1 record): Clemson/Texas UNDER, UTSA/Coastal Carolina OVER and Arkansas State/Bowling Green OVER

Get more college football betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.