The American Express Best Bets
Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% so based on a $100 unit on each of the following players, the payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings:
Sam Burns
Odds: Win 1,600 ~ Top Five 330 ~ Top Ten 180
Payout: Win 800.00 ~ Top Five 82.50 ~ Top Ten 45.00
Burns got off to a bad start at The Sentry with an opening round 72 but closed 66-66-65 to finish T8 and after taking last week off, he comes in with good form and good course history. He started strong last season with four top ten finishes in his first five starts including a T6 at The American Express, had his ups and downs in March through most of July but closed the season with five straight top 14 finishes including a T5 and a T2. Coming off the great finish last week should propel him at The American Express as four of his last five starts have resulted in T18 in 2019, T6 in 2020, T11 in 2023 and T6 in 2024.
Max Greyserman
Odds: Win 3,000 ~ Top Five 550 ~ Top Ten 280
Payout: Win 1,500.00 ~ Top Five 137.50 ~ Top Ten 87.50
Greyserman is ready to break through. Ever since he added a mini driver to his bag at the John Deere Classic last season, over his last 10 starts, he had seven top 25 finishes including four top fours with three runner-ups. Looking at real recent form and course history, he has been one poor round away from excellence. At The American Express last season, he opened 67-68-66 but posted a Sunday 73 to finish T56. It was more of the same at The Sentry as he opened 70-67-63 but closed with a 72 for a T24 finish. Those Sunday stinkers are anomalies as he closed with two 63s and two 65s over that run at the end of last season.
Si Woo Kim
Odds: Win 3,500 ~ Top Five 650 ~ Top Ten 350
Payout: Win 1,750.00 ~ Top Five 162.50 ~ Top Ten 45.00
Kim won this event in 2021 and he finished inside the top 25 in every year since while his SG: Total of 23.19 is 11th of all players over the last five years at The American Express. Kim is 7th in Total Strokes Gained: Pete Dye Designs over the last 50 rounds so it is no secret why he likes it here. His putting is erratic no matter where he goes but when he has it going, he will be there and he leads the early stats with Putting From 25+ Feet. The putter let him down at the Sony Open as he missed the cut because of his flat stick which was unfortunate as he gained strokes in all three other areas and he is always live here.
Taylor Montgomery
Odds: Win 30,000 ~ Top Five 4,000 ~ Top Ten 1,800
Payout: Win 15,000.00 ~ Top Five 1000.00 ~ Top Ten 450.00
Long Shot. Montgomery led the PGA Tour in SG: Putting last season at 0.866 and his 27.80 putts-per-round average ranked second in 21 starts and this tournament is about putting and birdies so he fits the mold in that regard. Additionally, over the last year, he is in the fourth percentile in Proximity To The Hole: 150-200 Yards and this is where over a third of approaches came from in the event last year. He finished T65 last week at the Sony Open and his downfall was surprising as it was his putting where he lost 0.46 strokes putting. He was not great here last year where he finished 61st but finished 5th in 2023.