Gamblers World Line Moves: NFL and College Football Line Moves

Gamblers World Line Moves: NFL and College Football Line Moves

We honestly thought last week was our final football line moves article. But the betting public gave us reason to reconsider with so much movement in every contest, we have one article for your enjoyment.

NFL – (387) Houston at (388) Kansas City -8.5
Saturday, January 18 – 4:30 p.m. / ESPN/ABC

Kansas City starts their journey chasing a third consecutive Super Bowl trophy. They have the support of the betting public which has helped push them from -7.5 to -8.5. Houston had a nice win last week against the Chargers but they got a lot of help from Justin Hebert playing dreadfully and their defense should have had three interceptions themselves. The Chiefs know how this works and can heat up C.J. Stroud with their defense. With essentially three weeks off for many of the Chiefs starters, they will be refreshed and ready. Patrick Mahomes is 13-5 ATS in career playoff games and is a spotless 6-0 in the first postseason game of the season, with his team winning by more than two touchdowns. These teams met four weeks ago at the same site and K.C. was -3, now they are -8.5? We already gave you the answer.

Bet Percentage: Chiefs 78%

Doug’s Pick – Chiefs cover

NFL – (389) Washington at (390) Detroit -9.5
Saturday, January 18 – 8:00 p.m. ET / FOX

What a miraculous job by Washington to put together a 13-5 season in coach Dan Quinn’s first year, aided by his outstanding rookie QB Jayden Daniels. The first-year stud has passed every test and doesn’t get rattled and since the Commanders are riding a six-game winning streak, they have been shoved a point downward to -9.5. However, these Lions are a different animal. Detroit has been 36-12 ATS in the last few years. They are 10-1 ATS off a home win and 6-0 ATS after scoring 30 or more points in two straight games, with their margin of victory 15.8 PPG. Washington has won five in a row by 6 or fewer points and going back to the Chicago Hail Mary, they are 7-1 in these types of outcomes. Good fortune doesn’t last forever. Catching the Lions at home at single digits is a value.

Bet Percentage: Lions 64%

Doug’s Pick – Lions cover

NFL – (391) L.A. Rams at (392) Philadelphia -6, Total 44
Sunday, January 19 – 3:00 p.m. ET / NBC

With Philadelphia 13-2 ATS as home favorite of seven or fewer points, this is strong justification for them being moved from -5 to -6 against the visiting Rams. At the same time, the total has tumbled from 45.5 to 44. Each club arrives on a roll down the stretch, with both defenses playing an imposing style of football. That’s what makes the UNDER attractive. We are willing to take the points because Matthew Stafford is playing better than Jalen Hurts and Sean McVay is the wiser choice for coach over Nick Sirianni.

Bet Percentage: Eagles 61% and 66% OVER

Doug’s Pick – Rams cover and UNDER

NFL – (393) Baltimore vs. (394) Buffalo +1
Sunday, January 19 – 6:30 p.m. ET / CBS

Buffalo was sent out as a one-point home fave but on Monday was reversed to a single-digit underdog. On defense, Baltimore now appears physically stronger and more stout against the run and they are less vulnerable to the deep throws compared to two/three months ago. We’ll give a slight edge to the Ravens and call the offenses a push. Both coaches only want to see their kickers kicking extra points because Highmark Stadium has tricky winds which gives the Bills K Tyler Bass a modest edge. One cannot overlook Buffalo being 9-0 SU at home. Nonetheless, John Harbaugh’s club is 6-2 SU and ATS since dropping the season lid-lifter at Kansas City. This sets up as a close, hard-fought battle with a case to be made either way. Yet, the Bills are 0-5 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games and Baltimore is 13-1 SU against teams scoring 24 or more points a game.

Bet Percentage: Ravens 56%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Ravens cover

CFB – (287) Ohio State at (288) Notre Dame +8
Monday, January 20 – 7:30 p.m. ET / ESPN

In asking a variety of sharp bettors, just over 60% were surprised Ohio State opened at -9.5 and the rest thought it was a good number. The Buckeyes have played like the best team in the country since the postseason began and one cannot help but wonder if the unimaginable loss to Michigan awoke the sleeping giant. Outside of possibly Ohio State, it’s hard to name another defense as complete as Notre Dame’s. This team enters the title game having lost at least three starters and maybe four by game time just since the playoffs began and had a couple of more missed time. Despite the apparent advantages Ryan Day’s squad has, they have slipped to -8. If you like the Buckeyes, grab them now. If you see destiny for the Fighting Irish, whose last four coaches to win national championships did so in the third season, just like Marcus Freeman, wait and see if the line goes back up. The UNDER is probably the best wager, but taking the points on a club that is either 9-0-2, 10-0-1, or 11-0 ATS depending on the sportsbook since losing to Northern Illinois, is our choice

Bet Percentage: Ohio State 58%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Notre Dame covers

 NFL Top 2 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (27-28-1 record): Chiefs and Lions

NFL Top 2 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (28-28 Record): Texans/Chiefs UNDER and (2^nd best) Ohio State/Notre Dame UNDER

Doug Upstone has been a decorated handicapper since 2003 and a sports betting writer since 2005. You can find Doug’s award-winning picks right here.