WM Phoenix Open Breakdown: Key Insights & Best Bets
The PGA Tour will officially begin its season this week in the eyes of many as following a pair of destination events in Hawaii and then three straight tournaments with course rotations that also included a pair of pro-am’s, we finally have stability with a full arsenal of data and legitimate course history. While we are coming off a signature event at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and with another signature event on deck at The Genesis Invitational, this would normally set up to be a lull in the schedule but not at TPC Scottsdale.
The Greatest Show on Grass is the perfect middle stop in between the signature events and in its usual spot on the schedule during Super 
Bowl week. The Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale has been a fan favorite for years and annually is the most-attended event on tour, surpassing 700,000 spectators (they are not called patrons here) each year. Highlighted by The Colosseum, the par three No. 16 hole that accommodates 20,000 fans, this is the ultimate week-long Darty.
TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course is a 7,261-yard par 71 featuring two-inch fairway rough, 67 bunkers, six holes with water hazards, and firm TifEagle Bermudagrass green complexes with Poa Overseed, making this a classic dessert course all around. Scoring is low but this is not a birdie-fest as the winning score was between -16 and -19 from 2017 through 2023 until Nick Taylor and Charley Hoffman went to a playoff last year after finishing -21, eventually won by Taylor on the second playoff hole.
Sandwiched around the two signature events hurts the field but there are still plenty of big names and intriguing storylines. Five of the top 15 in the OWGR will be teeing it up, Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama, Wyndham Clark, Justin Thomas, and Sahith Theegala, while players that have played well to start the season, Sungjae Im, Sam Burns, Tom Kim and Sepp Straka will also help headline along with past winners Taylor, Rickie Fowler and Gary Woodland.
Course fit and history is important to succeed here as TPC Scottsdale is No. 3 on tour in terms of projecting future success, behind only Augusta National and Waialae CC. Last year was the perfect example with Taylor winning after finishing second in 2023 and we can expect contenders this year having had prior experience and success here. A correlation for the players that do well here is THE PLAYERS Championship as four of the top 10 in course history have won at TPC Sawgrass.
Another connection in addition to success at TPC Sawgrass is doing well in Majors as nine of the last 11 winners at the WM Phoenix Open have also won either THE PLAYERS or a major championship and that tells us exactly what it takes. It is not one or two strengths that get it done but an all-around complete game that highlights Ball Striking and factors in Scrambling. As mentioned, it is not a birdie fest so hitting greens in regulation is pivotal, and while SG: Putting is important everywhere, it is not a top-key stat.
Top three key categories this week:
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Scrambling
Par 4s Gained: 450-500 Yards
Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings:
Sam Burns
Odds: Win 2,500 ~ Top Five 400 ~ Top Ten 210
Payout: Win 1,250.00 ~ Top Five 100.00 ~ Top Ten 52.50
Burns is off to a solid start this season with a T8 at The Sentry, T29 at the AMEX and a T22 at Pebble Beach which could have gone a lot better but his putter went ice cold on Sunday. He has contended with some elite fields throughout his career and while this one is not totally elite, there are big names and he has had success here of late with a T6 in 2023 and a T3 last year. He can be had for +2,000 in the Without Winner market.
Sahith Theegala
Odds: Win 4,000 ~ Top Five 700 ~ Top Ten 330
Payout: Win 2,000.00 ~ Top Five 175.00 ~ Top Ten 82.50
Conversely, Theegala has not started the season well as a T36 at The Sentry is his best finish through four starts while going the wrong way
after each finish but he has not missed a cut and he will be fine coming off a solid fall and he has made the weekend in his last 11 starts. His course fit makes him live here as he was runner-up in 2022 and finished solo fifth last year. The poor results put him in a great buy-low spot.
Billy Horschel
Odds: Win 6,000 ~ Top Five 900 ~ Top Ten 400
Payout: Win 3,000.00 ~ Top Five 225.00 ~ Top Ten 100.00
Horschel is trending the right way as after a MC at The Sony, he finished T21 at The AMEX and then a Sunday 66 propelled him to a T9 at Pebble Beach. He has been a mainstay here with 12 straight starts, making the cut 11 times including a pair of top ten finishes. He called out the crowds last year so he might get some negative reactions but if there is anyone that feeds off that, he is the one.
Maverick McNealy
Odds: Win 6,000 ~ Top Five 900 ~ Top Ten 400
Payout: Win 3,000.00 ~ Top Five 225.00 ~ Top Ten 100.00
We had McNealy last week and he was a big disappointment as he finished No. 7 in SG: Tee-To-Green and he could have fared better if not for a bad week with the putter as he was fifth to last in SG: Putting. That was an anomaly as he has finished positive SG: Putting the last five years and even an average week is fine here. If he hits the ball like he did at Pebble Beach, he can make a run similar to last year as he finished T6.
Rickie Fowler
Odds: Win 7,000 ~ Top Five 1,100 ~ Top Ten 500
Payout: Win 3,500.00 ~ Top Five 275.00 ~ Top Ten 125.00
Fowler has our deepest odds this week and he is another buy-low candidate with a great course history. He is coming off a disappointing T53 at Pebble Beach last week which was just his second start after a T21 at the AMEX. He was average across the board last week but now he hits a place he loves. He won here in 2019, going into Sunday with a four-shot lead and he also has a pair of runner-ups and a T10 two years ago.
Results through the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (3 Tournaments):
Win: -6,500
Top Five: -3,250
Top Ten: +600
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