Shoot The Rock – Betting College Basketball for February 21-23

College Basketball Betting Preview: February 21-23 on Gamblers World

The Importance of Inflicting Your Will

In doing our usual snooping around looking for edges in college basketball, we stumbled upon something that offers a lesson and might put a little money in your pocket.

Out of curiosity we typed in – Pace – and found a site we hadn’t seen in some time, WarrenNolan.com. In surveying this topic, we checked it up and down and found something to share.

The Top 11 teams with the slowest pace of play are:

#1 Drake

#2 North Texas

#5 Houston

#8 Towson

#11 St. Mary’s

Of these five teams, four are in first place this late in the regular season and North Texas is in second place in the AAC.

This stresses playing to your strengths and each squad plays quality defense and forces their opponent to play the same style. This matters because clubs that are more deliberate can play their style and be quite successful. Why this isn’t as true for teams that want to get up and down the floor because it is always easier to slow someone down than to speed them up.

Because oddsmakers are well aware of this information, one might think this would lead to a preponderance of Unders. Because linemakers are making continual adjustments, that’s not the case, nevertheless, looking at these five teams for lower-scoring contests still is the right decision from a handicapping perspective.

#1 Drake – 15-10 UNDER

#2 North Texas – 12-11 UNDER

#5 Houston – 14-11-1 UNDER

#8 Towson – 15-11 UNDER

#11 St. Mary’s – 14-11 UNDER

Crazy Trend of the Week!

Coming into the season, North Carolina was supposed to be no worse than 2^nd in the ACC, and Grand Canyon was expected to repeat as WAC champions.

As the season played out, the Tar Heels were nowhere close to challenging Duke, presently at #6 in the ACC at 8-6 and a shocking 16-11 overall, with coach Hubert Davis having done a bad job recruiting big men, a staple of the UNC program.

Grand Canyon has not had nearly as poor a season at 18-6 and 9-2 in the WAC for second place, one game behind Utah Valley.

Yet, one area for each team that has been horrendous is against the spread.

North Carolina 8-18-1 ATS

Grand Canyon 7-17 ATS

Those are among the three worst records in college basketball!

Friday

#15 Marquette @ Villanova
Power Rated – Marquette -5.5

Marquette is trying to hold onto the #2 seed in the Big East, currently tied with Creighton. Villanova is a run-of-the-mill in the league, yet is 13-2 at home and should give the Golden Eagles quite a test.

#14 Michigan State @ #12 Michigan
Power Rated – Michigan -1.5

A massive battle in the lower peninsula of Wolverine state. The key to the game will be scoring and defending the paint and Michigan should have a modest advantage. These rivals will meet again in 16 days.

Saturday

#6 Tennessee @ #7 Texas A&M
Power Rated – Tennessee -3.5

Texas A&M is in the most brutal part of their schedule and needs a bounce-back win after an unsavory showing at Miss. State this week. Tennessee doesn’t score easily if they don’t get the ball in the lane. This could be a grinder and look for a possible UNDER at the right number.

George Mason @ VCU
Power Rated – VCU -11

The two best of the A-10 do battle, and VCU needs a home win to tie George Mason for the lead. The Rams are more explosive winning by 15.7 PPG, while George Mason has shown a proclivity to win close games and put teams away at 9.7 PPG. VCU will likely be favored around -8.5 and watch the total closely. Below 135 points favors the Patriots and 143 or higher favors the Rams.

#8 Iowa State @ #5 Houston
Power Rated – Houston -11.5

Iowa State has won four in a row after dropping three straight. The Cyclones have not played as well as they did in December and most of January. Houston has lost once since December and will be tough to beat at home. Depending on what the spread is for this Big 12 beauty, Iowa State has a good chance of covering.

#17 Kentucky @ #4 Alabama
Power Rated – Alabama -5.5

Alabama has lost two times since reaching #2 in the country, albeit against very nasty teams in #1 Auburn and at #15 Missouri, off a big game. The Crimson Tide played poorly defensively and on the glass against both opponents but face a weaker defensive club in Kentucky and should handle them in Tuscaloosa.

#3 Duke vs Illinois
Power Rated – Duke -13

Duke’s ranking supports who they are and they face a compromised Illinois squad with injuries and illness at Madison Square Garden. A month ago, this would have been a great matchup, now, hard to imagine the Illini putting up much of a fight versus the Dukies.

St. Mary’s @ Gonzaga
Power Rated – Gonzaga -6

Gonzaga is probably not going to catch St. Mary’s to win the WCC, but they can earn a regular season split in an always entertaining series. This is all about the pace, if St. Mary’s can walk the ball up and execute their offense, they’ll win. If the Zags speed up the Gaels, they win and cover. How the referees call this one also matters, since the tighter the call favors the Bulldogs.

Sunday

Connecticut @ #10 St. John’s
Power Rated – St. John’s -11.5

St. John’s goes for the sweep and wants to prove there is a new top squad in the Big East. Connecticut has offensive problems in getting consistent scoring outside of freshman Liam McNeeley. The Red Storm defense makes even completing passes a challenge. This number is likely high. Catching St, John’s in single digits is worth a look.

Drake @ Northern Iowa
Power Rated – Drake -4

After a 3-4 start, Northern Iowa was forgotten about in The Valley, with the attention on Drake and Bradley. Now, the Panthers can create a first-place tie and get revenge with a home win over the Bulldogs. UNI is a live dog at this price, which might be too high. Regardless, this could be an UNDER play like the last meeting, won by Drake, 66-52.

Get more College Basketball betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.