Best Bets for the Arnold Palmer Invitational
Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings:
Justin Thomas
Odds: Win 2,500 ~ Top Five 400 ~ Top Ten 190
Payout: Win 1,250.00 ~ Top Five 100.00 ~ Top Ten 47.50
After some big time struggles right around this time last year, Thomas is trending the right way. He has five top tens over his last seven starts including a pair of runner-ups and a solo third. He is seventh in SG: Total this year which is important on this course where he finished T21 two years ago and T12 last year as an average weekend of 72-73 knocked him out of contention. He comes in No. 4 in the metrics model making this a buy low spot.
Patrick Cantlay
Odds: Win 2,500 ~ Top Five 450 ~ Top Ten 200
Payout: Win 1,250.00 ~ Top Five 112.50 ~ Top Ten 50.00
Cantlay is another player that is overdue for a win as he has not won since 2022. He has two T5 finishes in his last three starts and has finished outside the top 25 only once in his last 11 starts after breaking out of a downward trend in April-June of last season. He finished T4 here in 2023 and this is a setup that suits him well as the Memorial is a correlating event in which he is a two-time winner as well as the Valspar where he went T2.
Wyndham Clark
Odds: Win 5,000 ~ Top Five 800 ~ Top Ten 360
Payout: Win 2,500.00 ~ Top Five 200.00 ~ Top Ten 90.00
Clark has not been at the top of his game but this is another buy low spot. He has three top 17 finishes since December over six starts and while he has not cracked the top ten, this is a better environment for him. Last season, he posted four top-seven finishes between the Arnold Palmer, THE PLAYERS, RBC Heritage, and FedEx St. Jude Championship and that included a solo second here last year. Another correlating event is the Wells Fargo, which we won in 2023.
Sahith Theegala
Odds: Win 8,000 ~ Top Five 1,200 ~ Top Ten 500
Payout: Win 4,000.00 ~ Top Five 300.00 ~ Top Ten 125.00
It has been a slow start for Theegala but he is coming off his best finish in 2025 with a T17 at The Genesis and this is a place he has steadily improved at. He missed the cut in his first start here and followed that up with a T14 in 2023 and a T6 last year. He checks the boxes being able to capitalize at long and challenging courses and he is ranked in the top 25 in Scrambling and SG: Putting (Bermuda). He has top sevens at correlating events at The Memorial and The Valspar.
My results through The Genesis Invitational (5 Tournaments):
Win: -10,500
Top Five: -2,875
Top Ten: +1,725
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