2025 Spring Training Reports from the Cactus League in Arizona – Part 1

2025 Spring Training Reports from the Cactus League in Arizona – Part 1

GamblersWORLD’s writer and handicapper Doug Upstone lives in the 48^th State of Arizona. Doug’s in the heart of baseball action for Spring Training and for years has done reports and videos on all the teams in the greater Phoenix area. Here is Part 1 of Doug’s reports (you can watch his videos here if you prefer) covering eight teams, showing their last odds and free picks.

 Los Angeles Dodgers

*Win NL West -450 (1st)  *Win NL +170 (1st)

*Win World Series +290 (1st)  *Season Win Total – Un 103.5 -110

Last season was an oddity for the Dodgers. Despite an extreme number of injuries, especially to the pitching staff, manager Dave Roberts navigated all the treacherous turns to steer his team into the World Series. The often disappointing Dodger Blue was clutch against the New York Yankees and won a second World Series in five years.

Most organizations would be satisfied (insert the Cubs owners here), but not Los Angeles, which looks to maximize the existing talent and maybe win another title or two. With Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and the often clutch Will Smith, the Dodgers offense is set. Though Ohtani is unlikely to match last year’s production, at worst this is still a Top 4 offense in scoring after finishing #2 last year. 

The starting pitching staff is loaded with arms, with many returning from injury. This will be a fluid situation and not likely set until June, maybe later. But Roberts is a master, even if L.A. fans get flustered and the bullpen will be just fine like always. 

The Dodgers’ win total is extreme at 103.5, but having won two World Series rings, what will matter to this crew are championships, so a lean to the UNDER on wins. Otherwise, there are no value wagers on, just possibly a truly great club, trying to be the 1st B2B champs since the Yankees 1998-2000.

San Francisco Giants

*Win NL West +1800 (4th)  *Win NL +3500 (9th) *Season Win Total – O/U 80.5 -110

San Francisco is heading in a new direction. After being analytics-driven for more than a decade, they are looking for a different balance in making future Hall of Famer Buster Posey team president. 

That doesn’t mean analytics is dead in Frisco, but don’t be surprised if more scouting is utilized to build the minor leagues back to what it was two decades ago along with the Giants less rigid in following “the book”. 

Expect San Fran hitters to use more of a contact approach, which makes sense in still spacious Oracle Park. This should be about getting players on base and having runners moving to apply pressure to opposing defenses. This would set up Matt Chapman and free agent Willy Adames as the main RBI guys. 

On the pitching side, Logan Webb remains a reliable ace and Justin Verlander and Robbie Ray can provide five good innings more often than not, but are not youngsters. The bullpen could be good if all the pieces fit. 

The sense is if the offense works, San Francisco could barely finish over .500. No easy call here, but betting Frisco on or against the RL might be the best play, as it seems they will play many one-run games.

San Diego Padres

*Win NL West +1000 (3rd)  *Win NL +1300 (T5th)

*Win World Series +2800 (T12th)  *Season Win Total –  85.5 -110

A new season brings hope for San Diego, but have they reached the flatten-out spot rather than moving ahead? Ahead of the Dodgers 2-1, the Padres went scoreless for two consecutive contests and exited the postseason with barely a whimper. It appears spending money is parked, with as many long-term deals as they have.

Last year’s #8 offense still looks good with the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, and Manny Machado around. However, Jurickson Profar, Donovan Solano, and David Peralta are not along with a couple of others. A return to form of the Boston Xander Bogaerts would help, but he’s looking like another Fenway Park hitter, who’s not the same guy and scouts talk about how slow his bat has gotten. 

The starting staff of Dylan Cease, Michael King, Nick Pivetta, and Yu Darvish have potential. Still, Darvish starts the season at 38, Pivetta at 32 and while the latter is far from old, his post all-star starts have not been good for a few years. An elite bullpen helps a lot too. They were top five in appearances and had ERAs ranging from 2.77 to 3.99. All of them are back, plus a full season of Jason Adam, who had a 1.01 ERA in 27 appearances after being acquired from the Rays.

With an off-the-field ownership conundrum, instead of pursuing the Dodgers, San Diego may trade pieces like Cease or King. With less depth and nothing invested in the minors, the Friars need to say their prayers to reach 90 wins again. The total looks right; thus, I’ll pass. 

Chicago White Sox

*Win AL Central +25000 (4th)  *Win AL +20000 (Last)   *Season Win Total – Un 53.5 -110

By June of last season, it was obvious the White Sox were on a path to be among the worst teams of the “modern” era, that dates back to 1900. By then serious baseball bettors looked at Chicago’s odds first to bet against them and by July they were looking at the Pale Hose on the RL and even the higher Alternative RL.

With the 41-121 season completed, you can only go up but even if the oddsmakers are correct at 53/54 wins, that’s 108/109 losses.

Luis Robert Jr. is their best player and the franchise is hoping he starts hot so they can trade him for draft picks. Otherwise, the rest of the lineup has a few names you might recognize, but not because they’re productive.

If you have never heard of Jonathan Cannon, you have now and he is the White Sox “ace”. The rest of the pitching staff will allow runs. The UNDER looks like a safe bet, but do you want to tie up your money for six months, rooting against a hapless team? The better idea is to bet against the Pale Hose throughout the season, it will be more satisfying.

Colorado Rockies

*Win NL West +25000 (Last)  *Win NL +25000 (T-Last)   *Season Win Total – Un 58.5 -120

Say what you will about the Chicago White Sox after last year, their situation was created by mismanagement and lack of institutional control. Colorado, they are terrible because the owner shows a good profit every year and has zero desire to put even a competitive product on the field. The only way that changes is for Rockies fans to stop showing up, but their ballpark is so tempting during the summer to sit and enjoy a game. 

The Rockies have lost 100+ games in consecutive years, something they had never done before. As incredibly bad as the White Sox, Colorado gave up 116 more runs than the Pale Hose and 88 more than Miami, who was next to last. Though the return of veteran Rocks pitchers German Marquez and Antonio Senzatela should help, both are injury-prone now. 

At least before the Rockies could score but they were T19th in runs scored in 2024 and playing at Coors Field, you should have a Top 10 every year. 

I do like CF Brenton Doyle and SS Ezequiel Tovar, who were Gold Glovers and have some pop with the lumber. This team has won 59 and 61 games the last two years and their O/U is lower. If your betting, the UNDER looks right, but as said about the White Sox, it makes more sense to bet against Colorado all year and make the money in real-time.

Arizona Diamondbacks

*Win NL West +550 (2nd)  *Win NL +1300 (T5th)

*Win World Series +2500 (T9th)  *Season Win Total – Ov 86.5 -120

As we know, baseball is an odd sport. In 2023, Arizona won 84 games, made the playoffs, and went to the World Series. Last year, the D-Backs won five more times yet could not secure a postseason berth. That hasn’t deterred the Diamondbacks who believe they can return to the postseason. 

Arizona had the #1 scoring offense in baseball last year by a wide margin. They did so without Corbin Carroll having a great year. Carroll finished strong, which suggests he made the right adjustments and could have a big year. The loss of Christian Walker makes the infield defense weaker, but adding another power bat in Josh Naylor at first base should mean he can surpass his career year with Cleveland having even more runners scampering around the bases. 

Ownership wisely understands this is their window of opportunity and not only brought in Naylor but Corbin Burnes to anchor the starting staff. This drops Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly down a notch but think how many extra series the Snakes can win when these three are poised to face an opponent.  The bullpen was a disaster and few changes were made, making it a case that they can only get better. (Hopefully)

Nobody’s expecting Arizona to compete with the Dodgers, but an argument can be made that they are as good as any team picked to finish in second place in the senior circuit. If the D-Backs can dominate the Giants and Rockies, they should be an OVER play for a win total.

Kansas City Royals

*Win AL Central +270 (T2nd)  *Win AL +1300 (T8th)

*Win World Series +3000 (14th)   *Season Win Total – O/U 83.5 -110

Kansas City had a 30-win improvement last year to 86 wins. Normally, anything more than 15 wins is a big difference. Typically, that sort of jump calls for regression the following year and that is what the oddsmaker’s number suggests.

The concern for the Royals is the starting pitching. Seth Lugo is 34 and last year pitched a career-high in innings at over 200. Michael Wacha was at career numbers in several categories and durability has not been his strong suit. Ace Cole Ragans went from 124 to 186 innings. It’s hard to imagine K.C. will have the same durability and success in 2025. 

The offense revolves around superstar Bobby Witt who did it all for the Royals and seemed to have endless clutch at-bats. Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino are both good hitters but Perez was invigorated by his younger teammates last year and probably reverts to career norms.

It felt like everything went the Royals way a year ago and a .500 season is a more likely outcome in 2025.

Cleveland Guardians

*Win AL Central +300 (4th)  *Win AL +1400 (10th)

*Win World Series +4000 (17th)  *Season Win Total – Un 82.5 -120

It’s pretty shocking to see the odds for Cleveland only coming at #4 in the AL Central, after winning 90 games. However, the AL Central could be baseball’s most competitive division with four teams having a realistic shot to start the year walking away with the crown. 

Trading Josh Naylor and Andres Gimenez takes away from the offense and let’s be honest, it was for money purposes. But it makes little sense after two million people came to Progressive Field, the most since 2017. The Cleveland front offense thinks 2B Juan Briito is close to and DH Kyle Manzardo needs at-bats with Davd Frye out on the IL. Carlos Santana will save runs at first if not as productive as Naylor. Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan, and Lane Thomas should carry this offense.

The bullpen cannot possibly have a better regular season, but even some regression makes them a Top 5 instead of the best. The starting staff isn’t overwhelming, yet last year’s experience should make them tougher mentally.

Stephen Vogt did a great job as manager and the players believe in him. The Guards have a shot at repeating and Over looks like the right call.

Get more MLB betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.