NBA Playoffs 1st Round – Latest Previews and Betting Tips
The NBA Playoffs have arrived, and while we might not see many series surprises, there are usually ample game results that raise eyebrows for NBA bettors. Here is a look at the odds from the true contenders to win it all.
Top Teams to Win NBA Title (courtesy of BetOnline)
Oklahoma City Thunder +180
Boston Celtics +200
Cleveland Cavaliers +550
Los Angeles Lakers +900
Golden State Warriors +1400
Los Angeles Clippers +2500
Denver Nuggets +2800
New York Knicks +3000
Minnesota Timberwolves +3500
Let’s look into each first-round series.
Eastern Conference
#8 Atlanta or Miami vs. #1 Cleveland
Cleveland this season was the top offensive team in the NBA at 121.9 PPG. The Cavaliers should have no problem dismissing Atlanta or Miami in four or five games in their opening series. They can take down the Hawks, who, in theory, can compete ranked #5 in scoring. The issue for Atlanta is an efficient offense ranked #17 vs. the Cavs at #1 in offensive efficiency. With the Hawks #27 in points allowed, Cleveland should cruise. Miami would present more of a challenge for Cleveland because they are well-coached with Erik Spoelstra. The Heat have the #7 scoring defense, yet ultimately, ranked #24 in scoring will be their undoing.
#7 Orlando vs. #2 Boston
Boston as a -5000 series favorite is not something to wager on unless you want to tie up that money for a week to 10 days to make $100. The
Celtics will be favored by a dozen or more points at home and by higher single digits on the road. The Celtics are a three-point shooting squad, leading the league in attempts and makes against an Orlando squad that ranked last in both made 3s and accuracy. Because the Magic can defend the arc, they’ve won all four home games the last two years versus the C’s, and the SU winner in this series is 9-0 ATS. The Celtics in five is likely correct, with Orlando competing at home.
#6 Detroit vs. #3 New York
It’s been six years since Detroit was in the playoffs. The Pistons just didn’t sneak in as a play-in team; they were a solid six-seed. The Pistons should be jittery and nervous, but not as much as you might think, having won three of four (3-1 ATS) over New York, which was the last three. The Knicks are still a strong -365 favorite, nevertheless, this might not come easily, because the Knickerbockers retooled their roster to at least reach the East Finals, with high expectations. Detroit is playing with house money and can play loose. Jalen Brunson’s played four times since the injury and should be good to go. The Knicks need to take this series in no more than five and play well in each contest, or the Tom Thibodeau playoff failures will arrive early.
#5 Milwaukee vs. #4 Indiana
Indiana enters this compelling series as a -165 favorite, in spite of having a 1-3 SU and ATS mark this season. This should be an intense series
with two teams that don’t care for each other. Both enter playing well with the Pacers 13-3 (though 6-10 ATS) and Milwaukee winners of eight in a row (7-1 ATS). Indy’s Pascal Siakam has been nursing his shooting elbow. Being off for a week should help. The Bucks might have Damian Lillard at some point in this series. One should note Milwaukee finished 10-4 without Lillard, with veteran bench players like Kevin Porter Jr. stepping up, and having Bobby Portis back from suspension adds more depth. Calling for the upset here.
Western Conference
#8 Memphis or Dallas vs. #1 Oklahoma City
Though Oklahoma City didn’t threaten Golden State for the most wins in a season, 68 tied them for fifth all-time. The Thunder was
domineering, setting the new standard for margin of victory at 12.9 PPG, which is why they were 53-29-1 ATS despite frequently large spreads in the second half of the season. Though Memphis or Dallas could make a couple of contests interesting from a spread perspective, anything less than a 4-0 sweep by OKC would be stunning.
#7 Golden State vs. #2 Houston
Despite Houston having the superior seeding and homecourt edge, they are a +144 underdog to Golden State. The difference is experience; the Warriors have it everywhere, while the Rockets lack it outside of Fred Van Vleet. These Western Conference clubs split four games, with the away team covering the past trio. Jimmy Butler only played in the meeting on April 9, a 10-point road upset. The Rockets are only #20 in offensive efficiency, but they make up for it by averaging 5.5 more shots per game. It’s been said this is Golden State’s last stand since they won the trophy in 2022. The Warriors are not winning another title, however, Steph and Jimmy’s experience carries them past Houston.
#6 Minnesota vs. #3 L.A. Lakers
This series revolves around Luka +LeBron vs. Ant Man. Oddsmakers make the Lakers a -195 favorite in part because it is two superstars against one. For Minnesota to push this to seven games, Anthony Edwards has to match Luka all-around production, and notorious playoff bum Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert have to play at levels we’ve not seen from either in April or May. The Timberwolves have the defense, #5 in points allowed, and Top 10 in defensive 3-point defense, and attempts taken. Credit J.J. Redick for developing a bench and masking the center position. If Donte DiVincenzo, Naz Reid, and Jaden McDaniels can support Edwards, this series reaches the max. Still, Luka and LeBron make the difference.
#5 L.A. Clippers vs. #4 Denver
The first fascinating aspect of this series happened before the opening jump ball. Denver was sent out as a -155 favorite, and as this article was posted, they are a -102 underdog. The Clippers enter playing at a remarkable clip as winners of eight straight and 18-3 (16-5 ATS). Denver was the champs just 22 months ago and looked like a lock for the second-seed, but crumbled, not playing defense, working the finer points of the game, and stunningly, coach Mike Malone was fired with three games to play. The Nuggets did finish 3-0 SU and ATS. Even with the best player in the game, Nikola Jokic, is interim coach David Adelman to push the right buttons over the next two weeks (or longer)? The Nuggets’ strength is the #4 offense (efficiency), taking on the #3 defense in L.A. in efficiency. With Kawhi Leonard fresh and healthy, coach Tyronn Lue had the NBA’s best offense over the last 21 contests. Have to agree with the odds changing, the Clippers in six.
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