2024 AFC EAST PREVIEW

AFC East Preview

The season win totals and odds to make the playoffs are from the opening lines at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas.

These write-ups were extracted from the 2024 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide magazine, on sale now at Barnes & Noble and Book-A-Million bookstores across the country, along with the Gambler’s Book Store in Las Vegas.  You can also a copy directly from Playbook when you visit PlaybookSports.com.

BUFFALO BILLS – LESS FLUFF, MORE SUBSTANCE

Sometimes, we need to ask ourselves, is less really more? In the Bills’ case this season, it may be just that. Stefon Diggs, Mitch Morse, and Gabe Davis are gone on offense. Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, and Tre’Davious White are gone on defense. With them goes a lot of institutional knowledge. Thus, the question arises: Is less really more? We’ll be keeping a close watch on the new-look Bills. This could be a Kansas City-like evolution if the defensive alterations and the health of star LB Matt Milano pan out. Key defensive starters alone missed a combined total of 32 games throughout the season. This impacted the team’s overall performance, as the absences of these critical players likely contributed to some of the struggles they experienced during the year. It also likely impacted the fact that Buffalo dropped five games outright as a favorite last season, including a home loss to the Chiefs in the AFC title game, similar to their postseason loss to the Bengals two years ago. Now, with Josh Allen less appealing than at any time in his brilliant career, is it time to expect more?

Season Win Total: 10.5 UNDER 

Odds To Make Playoffs YES -175 / NO +155

Stat You Will Like: Buffalo is 34-13 SUATS when coming off three ATS losses, including 28-4 ATS against .400 or greater foes.

PLAY ON: vs. Kansas City (11/17)

MIAMI DOLPHINS – LIFE IN THE FAST LANE

Talk about a fall from grace. The Miami Dolphins broke out of the gate like Secretariat running his way to the Triple Crown but ended up like a $5,000 claimer with bad ankles. They were 5-1 out of the gate, averaging 499 yards per game after the season’s first six games. They closed 2-4 while averaging 339 yards per game. Aside from going 1-6 SUATS against the seven playoff teams they faced, they were outscored 96-42 in the second half of those games. They were also blanked in the second half of their last two games while scoring just 3 points in the second half of their final three contests. Mike McDaniel: You need a new playbook! The players are holding up their end of the deal. The Dolphins have 114 sacks over the last 3 years –tops in the NFL. Meanwhile, Miami is paying the price to remain the fastest team in the NFL as WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are the third highest-paid receivers in the league, earning $30M and 28.75M per season, respectively. And QB Tua Tagovailoa led the league in passing yards in 2023. It’s on McDaniel to step up and deliver.

Season Win Total: 9.5  

Odds To Make Playoffs YES -145 / NO +125

Stat You Will Like: It’s been 24 years since the Dolphins last won a playoff game, in 2000, the longest current skein in the NFL.

PLAY ON: vs. Tennessee (9/30)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS – A NEW ERA IN NEW ENGLAND

Yes, The Hoodie has left town, and with it, a new era in Foxborough begins this season. While perusing through a few of the remnants Bill Belichick left behind; we came across this neat stat: The Patriots were +240 in net turnovers in Bill Belichick’s 24 seasons in New England. Unfortunately, as Dave LaMont so sagely calls out in our NFL Preview section in this year’s Preview Guide, it’s been 24 games since the Pats cracked the 400-yard plateau on offense. New head coach Jerod Mayo, with 17 new coaches littering the staff, gets tested early with road games in three of the first four weeks while taking on the toughest SOS in the league (see page 11). If he learned anything from his famous mentor, it should be having learned how to keep games close. Last year, a staggering 42% of NFL regular season games of the season (114 of 273) were decided by six points or fewer, the most since the league expanded to 32 teams in 2002. To put that into perspective, 6.7 games per week were decided by no more than a touchdown, with the Pats one of three teams paving the way with 11 such results. 

Season Win Total: 5  

Odds To Make Playoffs YES +900 / NO -1600

Stat You Will Like: The Patriots are 1-10 SUATS as a dog of 3 or fewer points dating back to 2021.

PLAY AGAINST: at San Francisco (9/29)

NY JETS – OBJECTS IN THE REARVIEW MIRROR

Only nine quarterbacks started all 17 games last season. Aaron Rodgers was not one of them. Nonetheless, when you turn on your TV at any point this fall, there’s a good chance you’ll see the Jets doing a flyover. That’s because Rodgers’ team has been awarded six prime-time games over the first 11 weeks, which marks the first time in NFL history that a team has been given that many night games over the first 11 weeks. The Jets also have a Week 5 game in London, which means they’ll be getting seven standalone games before Thanksgiving. Pretty amazing for a team that hasn’t enjoyed a winning season since 2015, or when the Apple Watch was launched, same-sex marriage was legalized in the U.S., and Uptown Funk was the No. 1 Song of the Year on the Billboard Hot 100. We firmly believe that Rodgers’ better days are in the rearview mirror. Do you need proof? Then look no further than his last full season in 2022, when he failed to throw for 300 yards in any game. He also tossed 12 interceptions the same season, the most since his first year as a starter in Green Bay in 2008.

Season Win Total: 9.5 OVER -150  

Odds To Make Playoffs YES -150 / NO +130

Stat You Will Like: Only three teams maxed out with six prime-time games – the 49ers, Cowboys, and the Jets. Those are teams that won 14, 12, and 7 games last season, respectively.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. New England (9/19)

The 2024 AFC EAST Playoff Preview is presented by Playbook Sports, where Marc Lawrence has been providing top handicapping tips and picks for nearly three decades. Get his top picks and best bets here at gamblersWORLD.