2024 AFC WEST PREVIEW

This 2024 AFC WEST Preview is presented by Playbook Sports.

The season win totals and odds to make the playoffs are from the opening lines at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas.

These write-ups were extracted from the 2024 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide magazine, on sale now at Barnes & Noble and Book-A-Million bookstores across the country, along with the Gambler’s Book Store in Las Vegas.  You can also a copy directly from Playbook when you visit PlaybookSports.com.

DENVER BRONCOS – WHAT, ME WORRY?

Despite negative press in Sean Payton’s first season with the Broncos, Denver fell only half a game short of its projected win total of 8.5. Remarkably, in Payton’s 15 seasons with the Saints, he led the NFL in yards per play, 3rd down conversion percentage, and red zone touchdown percentage. Last year, his Broncos ranked 25th in Yards Per Play, 18th in 3rd Down Conversion Percentage, and 27th in Red Zone Touchdown Percentage. As George Costanza would say, “That’s some serious shrinkage.” This season, a year removed from the Russell Wilson controversy, and with WR Jerry Jeudy now on Deshaun Watson’s team, they will rely on rookie QB Bo Nix. Meanwhile, QB Zach Wilson, fragile psyche and all, also joins the team. It’s telling when a team acquires a quarterback, and the previous team pays half his salary as a “good riddance tax.” A deeper look shows that the aftermath of the Wilson trade labeled one of the NFL’s most regrettable in recent memory, casts a long shadow over the team. It also opens questions about future financial repercussions for Denver. Aside from his NFL-leading $18M a year contract, it appears Payton may have taken on more than he can handle. He could care less.

Season Win Total: 5.5 UNDER 

Odds To Make Playoffs YES +600 / NO -900

Stat You Will Like: Sean Payton is 20-9 SU and 22-7 ATS versus division opponents coming off a win, including 10-1 ATS as a dog of 4 or more points. 

PLAY ON: vs. L.A. Chargers (10/13)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS – FAULTY FUSELAGE

After endless hours of chewing up and spitting out the numbers, the Well-Oiled Machine conclusively reports that the Chiefs will NOT be three-peat champions after the 2024 season. Yes. You read that right. Despite adding speedster WRs Marquise Brown (4.27) now sidelined for 4-6 weeks and rookie rocket Xavier Worthy (4.21) as new boy toys for Patrick Mahomes, the mighty Chiefs are in danger of not winning their division, let alone a 3rd straight Super Bowl. The Super champs start the season by hosting nemeses Baltimore (5-5 last 10) and Cincinnati (3-7 last 10). Between the mammoth bullets on their back and Swifty fever hitting a two-year high, they stand little-to-no chance of a three-peat in 2024. The Chiefs are one of five teams closing the season with two straight road games. If you think opening the campaign with back-to-back contests against the likes of Baltimore and Cincinnati is rough, then chew on this: Since 2000, NFL teams playing each of their final two games of the regular season on the road are 13-21 SU and 11-23 ATS collectively, including 3-9 ATS when favored in either game. Sorry, Andy. Yet another Playbook cover boy goes down in flames. Like the instructions on the firecracker package say: Light fuse and get away.

Season Win Total: 11.5 UNDER -120 

Odds To Make Playoffs YES -500 / NO +400

Stat You Will Like: Kansas City will be playing on six different days of the week this season, a schedule that no team has seen in nearly 100 years.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Baltimore Ravens (9/5)

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS – RAIDERS OF THE LOST ART

The AFC North is one of the toughest divisions in football, and the Raiders will see plenty of it in the first half of the season. Las Vegas will face every team in that division – starting with the Ravens in Week 2 – before reaching its bye in Week 10. That’s not exactly what a rebuilding team needs to see early in the campaign. Worse, they skipped over a badly needed quality quarterback in this year’s draft, one filled with a strong crop of QBs. Instead, they settled on a 2023 “Pro Bowler” in Gardner Minshew, a career backup quarterback who is 14-25 outright in his NFL career starts, including 1-14 SU and 2-13 ATS in his last fifteen starts as an underdog. The problem is that the label “Pro Bowl” is analogous to earning a trophy for attendance. Rest assured, that is not going to lead anyone to the Super Bowl. And in case you didn’t know, the Raiders are one of four teams in the NFL who will play their first two games on the road this season. Behind an offense in a serious plunge, regressing each of the last three years, it’s rather sinful how Vegas remains remotely competitive.

Season Win Total: 7

Odds To Make Playoffs YES +300 / NO -360

Stat You Will Like: Like a Vegas magician’s sleight of hand, the Raiders have averaged 8 wins a season behind five different starting QBs. 

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Kansas City (10/27)

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS – JAW-DROPPING

The Chargers gave a king’s ransom to bring the ‘Jaw’ to Los Angeles. The deal is $16M a year for five years. Before you reach for the barf bag, though, you need to know the deal makes him the second-highest-paid coach in the league (Sean Payton, Denver, $18M/season). So, is Harbaugh worth the money? The Chargers certainly think so. The Bolts past three coaching hires all had one big thing in common: None of them had ever been a head coach before. This will be the fifth coaching stop of Harbaugh’s career, where he’s had tremendous success at every place he’s been. He started at the University of San Diego and went 29-6 over three seasons (2004-06). In 2007, he took over a Stanford program that had gone 1-11 the previous year. By 2010, he had the Cardinal at 12-1 and in the Orange Bowl. And we all know what happened at Michigan, leading them to a 15-0 season that included Michigan winning its first national championship this century. And we didn’t even mention his lofty 44-19-1 mark as the 49ers coach from 2011-14, reaching the playoffs his first three seasons and losing Super Bowl XLVII to the Ravens. 

Season Win Total: 9 UNDER -130 

Odds To Make Playoffs YES +105 / NO -125

Stat You Will Like: QB Justin Herbert enters with the most passing yards through a quarterback’s first four NFL (17,223) seasons. He has also reached 500 completions faster than any other quarterback in NFL history

PLAY ON: vs. Tennessee (11/10) 

The 2024 AFC EAST Playoff Preview is presented by Playbook Sports, where Marc Lawrence has been providing top handicapping tips and picks for nearly three decades. Get his top picks and best bets here at gamblersWORLD.