Does the NFL moneyline present an opportunity?

One of the options you have when betting on the NFL is something called the “moneyline” (which some folks might express in two words – money line). 

If you’re just a casual bettor, you may not be familiar with it. But it may do you some good to develop a familiarity with it.

Simply put, the moneyline is represented by a set of odds that gives you a framework to wager on the winner of a game. It requires you to come to a value assessment that is rather different from what you would with a point spread.

And it can be a viable option, under the right circumstances. 

Betting on Underdogs and Favorites 

For example, a certain underdog might be attractive to you, not only to cover but to win outright. However, using the moneyline is not something that has to be restricted to underdogs.

You may see great value in a favorite; you might think, for instance, that a team that is a four-point favorite will win going away. It goes without saying that you are going to look very seriously at betting that favorite and laying the points.

But the moneyline bet, which requires that team only to win the game, would also have to be a viable play. 

Needless to say, if you like an underdog to win, it might make sense for you to pull the trigger on a moneyline play. And perhaps if you had to choose between playing the point spread or the moneyline in that situation, who would probably feel better taking a price than laying the 11-to-10 (-110) as you would do in a standard point spread wager?

At one time, the moneyline was the only way to bet on a football game. That came before the point spread, which became the more popular way to go. if you pick your spots though, the moneyline presents you with opportunities.

Example of a Moneyline 

Let’s set up an example of what a moneyline looks like. When you go to an online sportsbook, you will usually see it as it accompanies a point spread. 

If, say, the Arizona Cardinals are visiting the Buffalo Bills, this is how the entire proposition would be presented:

It is not all that unusual for sportsbooks to come up with a corresponding moneyline for every point spread. in this instance, the Bills are a seven-point favorite, and their moneyline figure is -325. The cards are +265.  

Calculating Win Percentages 

When you have any moneyline before you, it can be applied to create a percentage chance to win. 

So Buffalo is -325, converted to 325/425, which equals a win percentage of roughly 76.5% (we’re rounding up or down as necessary). And Arizona is +265, which, mathematically, translates to 100/365, or an expectation of 27.4%.

The difference between -325 and +265 becomes, in effect, the “juice” the house will have in its favor. And the theoretical hold percentage for the sportsbook is 3.72%.

Upsets Can Happen 

We all know that upsets can happen. This is especially the case in the NFL, where there is more competitive balance, on the whole, than there is in college football. And since these establishments are competing with each other for business, it is more difficult than ever for them to withhold moneyline choices from the wagering menu. 

The sportsbook can be at risk, obviously, on those occasions when a big underdog wins outright. But what you have to be careful of laying big prices with favorites because that can expose you to a sizable loss.

If you can get on the side of a few of those underdogs, you may experience enough upsets to make it all worth your while. 

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