Top Value Picks for the Farmers Insurance Open
Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts, and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings:
Will Zalatoris
Odds: Win 2,200 ~ Top Five 450 ~ Top Ten 225
Payout: Win 1,100.00 ~ Top Five 112.50 ~ Top Ten 56.25
Zalatoris is off to a good start this season with a T12 and a T26 which comes after a good end to last season after a rough middle of the circuit as he was trying to get back into form following a major back injury. He is a player with a great course fit as he has a T13, T7 and a runner-up in a playoff in 2022. SG: Approach is a key metric here because of the difficulty of the green complexes but he is No. 34 in SG: Around The Green. His putting has been suspect through two starts but he is known for streaky putting and he likes the Poa. He is in the similar category with Max Homa and even better as he is No. 4 on tour in SG: Very Difficult Courses over the last 36 rounds.
Max Greyserman
Odds: Win 2,500 ~ Top Five 500 ~ Top Ten 250
Payout: Win 1,250.00 ~ Top Five 125.00 ~ Top Ten 62.50
We rode with Greyserman last week and a missed Eagle putt on 17 and a double bogey on 18 knocked him from solo third to T7. That followed a T24 at The Sentry and going back, he has five top tens over his last 10 starts including three runner-ups and has not missed a cut over his last 13 starts. He missed the cut here last season before he got hot but something was not right as he had a missed cut and a T56 prior to the Famers and then WD in his next start which then took time to find that current streak he is on with the help of some equipment changes. He comes here at the best time as he has played 18 consecutive rounds under par.
Max Homa
Odds: Win 3,000 ~ Top Five 550 ~ Top Ten 280
Payout: Win 1,500.00 ~ Top Five 137.50 ~ Top Ten 70.00
Last year was not a great year for Homa as he finished outside the top 40 for the first time since 2019-20. His putting has been his problem area at times but he is No. 2 on the PGA Tour in SG: Putting (Poa) over the last 24 rounds and he is one to flourish on California greens. Additionally, as long as it is not a Birdie fest, he tends to play a lot better as he is No. 4 on tour in SG: Very Difficult Courses over the last 36 rounds. Even better, using comparable courses, many which fall into the previous Very Difficult Courses category, Homa is No. 1. He won here in 2023 and at Riviera and Silverado before that and if the putter remains hot on these greens, we will be in contention.
Taylor Pendrith
Odds: Win 3,000 ~ Top Five 600 ~ Top Ten 300
Payout: Win 1,500.00 ~ Top Five 150.00 ~ Top Ten 75.00
Pendrith may be flying under the radar as not quite being a household name yet, but his odds are showing he belongs and we feel there is still
value. He is in the midst of the best run of his career as following a cut at the PGA Championship last May, he has made the weekend in 13 consecutive starts including 10 top 25s and finishing top ten three times. Before this run, he won at the Byron Nelson which was sandwiched between a T10 and two T11s. He has had success here with three made cuts in three starts including a T16 in 2022 and a T9 last year. 11 players have not missed the cut here over the last five years ( three start minimum) and Pendrith is part of that short list.
Stephan Jaeger
Odds: Win 6,000 ~ Top Five 1,000 ~ Top Ten 500
Payout: Win 3,000.00 ~ Top Five 250.00 ~ Top Ten 125.00
Jaeger has the tools to contend and win here and he proved that last year with a T3, after heading to the back nine with the Sunday lead. Torrey Pines is extremely long and he is one of the longer hitters on tour which can be a big edge if he can keep it somewhat straight. Last season was front loaded with another T3 and then a win at the Houston Open but it was a rough second half with only one top 25 from the end of May through the playoffs. He had a good fall though with a T23 and a solo second while his first two starts this year have been solid highlighted by a T3 at the Sony Open. His putting has been in peak form as well, gaining 3.5 strokes or more in three of his last five starts.
Taylor Moore
Odds: Win 8,000 ~ Top Five 1,200 ~ Top Ten 600
Payout: Win 4,000.00 ~ Top Five 300.00 ~ Top Ten 150.00
Moore is our biggest longshot this week as we are not looking at the big bombs based on the difficulty and the above average, albeit not elite, field. He missed the cut at the Sony Open but bounced back with a T7 at The American Express last week. He was a roller coaster last season as he finished T2 at the Houston Open then regressed before a T12 at the PGA Championship five starts later. It was another regression before a T10 at the Rocket Mortgage then three missed cuts before a T12 at the 3M Open before fading to end the season. We bring this up as the regression could settle in based on the past but we like the early momentum backed by his play around the green and his distance off the tee.
Results through The American Express (1 Tournament):
Win: -2,000
Top Five: -1,000
Top Ten: +200
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