Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Championship Week Update

College Football Championship Week Line Moves Update

The regular season is complete. We move ahead to the conference championships and this could be the most competitive year ever, with the largest current point spread of only 5.5. Here are the latest updates on line move and our free picks (52-38 ATS). Doug apologizes for not having as many free picks this week because he’s using some of them for his premium plays.

CFB – (103) Tulane at (104) Army +5.5
Friday, December 6 – 8:00 p.m. ET / ABC

American Championship – Tulane returns to play in this contest for a third consecutive year, winning it in 2022 over Central Florida. Tulane is 9-3 SU and ATS and was bumped up from -4 to -5.5 point road favorites over the once-beaten Army. The Green Wave had issues stopping the run in all three setbacks, permitting an average of 213 yards a game. However, in the rest of their contests, they only gave up 94.3 yards per game on the ground including 100 to the Navy on the road, who plays a similar style to the Black Knights. Army is the top rushing team in the country, but they only scored 19 PPG in their last four games which might explain the line moving against them. Update: The number has come down the Black Knights being an underdog by a full point to +4.5. With that the total has also cratered three points to 45.5. One might like the Army is 10-1 ATS after two consecutive games committing one or fewer turnovers. With the Black Knights 25-10 UNDER versus passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards per attempt, this lower total could work, however, we’ll side with the efficiency of both offenses.

Bet Percentage: Was Tulane 55%, now 63% and UNDER 77%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Over and Sorry no side pick, part of Doug’s package

CFB – (109) Iowa State vs. (110) Arizona State -2.5
Saturday, December 7 – 12:00 p.m. ET / ABC

Big 12 Championship – These two programs have little experience in these battles. Brock Purdy led Iowa State to this contest in 2020, falling to Oklahoma by six. Arizona State played in only one PAC-12 title tilt back in 2013 where Stanford won. Neither was among the three clubs expected to reach this point, but both finished 10-2 and earned it. Iowa State’s better reputation under coach Matt Campbell earned them a one-point favorite roll. However, college football bettors were more impressed with the Sun Devils closing the year 5-0 SU and ATS and they are now a 2.5-point favorite in Arlington TX. Look for turnovers to play a big part with ISU at +8 in TO margin and ASU at +11. Update: Despite the betting percentages holding steady, Arizona State slipped back to -1.5 with offshore books at -1. It could be Iowa State with a more veteran coaching staff that has played in more big games compared to ASU’s staff.

Bet Percentage: Was Arizona State 70%, now 72%

Doug’s Pick – Sorry no pick, part of Doug’s package

CFB – (111) Ohio U. vs. (112) Miami-O -2.5
Saturday, December 7 – 12:00 p.m. ET / ESPN

MAC Championship – Both these clubs have played in Detroit the last two years with Ohio losing to Toledo in 2022 and Miami-O upsetting the Rockets last year. The RedHawks won the earlier meeting at home 30-20 as 3.5-point favorites, with a -2 in turnovers dooming the Bobcats. Miami’s been lifted from -1 to -2.5, but the last nine meetings are 4-5 and 5-4 ATS. The underdog is 5-4 ATS in those nine contests. Update: Just a half-point buyback on Ohio U. who remains the underdog. We’re going to side with the Bobcats who are 7-0 ATS after outrushing the last opponent by 125 or more yards last game.

Bet Percentage: Was Miami-O 65%, now 62%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Ohio U. covers

NEW -CFB – (113) Georgia vs. (114) Texas  Total 50
Saturday, December 7 – 12:00 p.m. ET / ABC

SEC Championship – In spite of Georgia winning the first matchup 30-15 with a closing total of 56.5, the opening total of 48.5 was deemed too low and was bumped up to 50. The Bulldogs dictated how the first game was played and with the total on the rise, at least to a certain extent, bettors are surmising that will happen again with the Dawgs 6-6 on totals. The reason for that assessment is Texas is 7-2-1 UNDER on the year. Though the case could be made for a higher scoring affair, neutral field teams like Georgia when the total is between 49.5 and 56, having won three out of their last four games, against a team having won eight or more out of their last 10 games, they are 35-11 UNDER.

Bet Percentage: OVER 64%

Doug’s Pick – Take UNDER

CFB – (115) Marshall at (116) Louisiana -5.5
Saturday, December 7 – 7:30 p.m. ET / ESPN

Sun Belt Championship – There have only been five prior SBC title games (no game in 2020 with Covid) with Louisiana reaching the first three versus App. State, winning one in 2021. Marshall is a newer member of the Sun Belt, who made two appearances in Conference USA title games in 2013 and 2020, coming up short both times. The SBC still uses divisions to decide who plays for the championship, however, these were the two best squads at 7-1. Louisiana received the home game and was lifted two points to -5.5 over the Thundering Herd. Keep in mind, Marshall is 5-1 ATS on the road while the Ragin’ Cajuns are 2-4 ATS at home. Update: About 80% of the sportsbooks have kept the Ragin’ Cajuns at -5.5, with the rest settling at -5. It’s difficult to blow off the Herd are 10-2 ATS this season.

Bet Percentage: Was Louisiana 64%, now 73%

Doug’s Pick – Sorry no pick, part of Doug’s package

CFB – (117) Clemson vs. (118) SMU -2.5
Saturday, December 7 – 8:00 p.m. ET / ABC

ACC Championship – The Tigers have played in this conflict in seven of the last nine years, winning the crown each time. SMU wasn’t supposed to handle the more physical ACC, yet they are 8-0 in conference play. The Mustangs are making a second straight conference title game after defeating Tulane last year in AAC action. Given Clemson’s history, a bit surprising to see them flip from -1 to +2.5 vs. SMU. Nevertheless, the Ponies had the better SU and ATS records and scored more and allowed less. Update: Betting markets are satisfied with SMU at this price, but Dabo Swinney’s experience in this situation has to count for something. Dabo’s teams are 16-5 ATS in December games.

Bet Percentage: Was SMU 66%, now 73%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Clemson

CFB Top 3 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (37-33 record): Oregon, SMU and Louisiana

CFB Top 3. Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (37-32-1 record): Tulane/Army UNDER, Marshall/Louisiana OVER and Iowa State/Arizona St. OVER

Get more college football betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.