Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Dec. 14-20

College Football Championship Bowl Week Line Moves 

Besides Army and Navy Saturday, it is time to kick off the bowl season! We will have Line Moves every few days for college football, along with Free Picks which have done quite well at 56-38 ATS this season.

CFB – (453) Navy vs. (454) Army -6.5, Total 39
Saturday, December 14 – 3:00 p.m. ET / CBS

Both teams did far better than expected this season with the Navy 8-3 and the Army a super 10-1 and American Conference champions. The Midshipmen drew more than a fair share of support early because on the surface they play a similar style of offense but that hasn’t held up since. The Black Knights are better on both sides of the ball and the point spread is not wrong going from -4 to -6.5. The total opened at 40.5 and Tuesday made a big drop to 38 before bouncing back to 39 on Thursday. One has to consider the last three years the closing totals were 32, 32, and 28. Let’s look at the Army who is 9-1 ATS in away or neutral games after one or more wins against the spread.

Bet Percentage: Army 84% & OVER 52%

Doug’s Pick – Army covers and Pass on Total (Premium Pick)

CFB – (197) South Alabama vs. (198) Western Michigan +8, 57.5
Saturday, December 14 – 9:00 p.m. ET / ESPN

Veterans Bowl – Sometimes sites posting opening odds are not completely transparent with their numbers. On two different sites we regularly check, on Sunday South Alabama was sent out at -9 and by Monday morning they were moved to -10, which most football bettors thought was a little high. By Tuesday afternoon, USA was down to -7 but is now showing -10 as the opening salvo. The Jaguars losing leading rusher Fluff Bothwell certainly had an impact, just not three points. On Thursday, USA was back to -8. The total has also gone down two points to 57.5, primarily because Western Michigan’s average total final score was below 40 points in their last three outings. The early action was on South Alabama but now the Broncos are the people’s choice. We’ll lean with the visitor with the Jaguars 2-10 ATS having won two out of their last three games and the OVER, figuring this reaches the 60’s.

Bet Percentage: Western Michigan 63% & Over 76%

Doug’s Pick – Play OVER and lean Western Michigan

CFB – (199) Memphis vs. (200) West Virginia +4.5
Tuesday, December 17 – 9:00 p.m. ET / ESPN

Frisco Bowl – With Neal Brown let go after six seasons at West Virginia the Mountaineers were flipped from -1.5 to +4.5 against Memphis. We’re not putting all this on Brown’s departure because the Mountaineers definitely struggled all year against quality quarterbacks. Memphis has one in Seth Henigan who led his team to a 10-win season and 35.2 PPG. It is a concern the Tigers are 0-6 ATS in away or neutral games after three or more consecutive straight-up wins, but those are mostly facing larger spreads and we’ll back the new favorite to cover.

Bet Percentage: Memphis 77%

Doug’s Pick – Memphis covers

CFB – (201) West. Kentucky vs. (202) James Madison -9.5
Wednesday, December 18 – 5:30 p.m. ET / ESPN

Boca Raton Bowl – With the Hilltoppers losing two QBs to the portal, Western Kentucky is up to a +9.5 point underdog from +6. Neither club played especially well down the stretch with James Madison 2-4 ATS and WKU 1-5 ATS. Maybe one Hilltoppers QB suits up but that is still a disruption and the lack of continuity on a quick turnaround, as the bowls previously started two weeks after the conference championships. James Madison closed with two setbacks, despite winning the yardage battle in each instance. Let’s go with the Dukes’ more focused even with a bloated number, plus, they are 10-2 ATS vs. passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or higher.

Bet Percentage: Western Kentucky 74%

Doug’s Pick – Lean James Madison

CFB – (209) Tulane vs. (210) Florida -14
Friday, December 20 – 3:30 p.m. ET / ABC

Gasparilla Bowl – In normal times for Florida, playing in a bowl like this would be depressing. But these are not normal ties in Gainesville. A 7-5 record is hardly cause for celebration for the Gators. Yet closing 3-0, coach Billy Napier assured of returning and landing a signing day Top 10 recruiting class, optimism is high around Florida’s program. The consensus is the Gators have something to prove. With reports of Tulane QB Darian Mensah hitting the portal, the Green Wave jumped from +9.5 to +14. Though the Gators are capable of covering two touchdowns, the best betting strategy is to see if the number drops below -14, see who else might be out for Tulane, and then back Florida.

Bet Percentage: Florida 61%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Florida (below -14)

Get more college football betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.