Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Week 1

The lines on all college football games have been up for months. To get a weekly honest read, that will start next week after everyone has played. Just so you are aware, ALL Free Picks will come on Friday’s update addition.

CFB – (151) Florida Int. at (152) Indiana -21.5
Saturday, August 31 – 3:30 p.m. ET / Big

Though Indiana figures to be among the worst teams in the Big Ten, football bettors view them as being dramatically better than Florida International and moved the Hoosiers from -18.5 to -21.5. FIU struggles to keep home-grown talent, even those left over from the Power 4 conferences. Indiana hired Curt Cignetti as their new head coach from James Madison, and he brought some of those talented players to Bloomington to kickstart a new offense, to establish a new Indiana identity. Offhand, this seems like a lot of points to give out.

Monday Bet Percentage: Indiana 80+%
Doug’s Pick – Check back on Friday

CFB – (155) Connecticut at (156) Maryland -20.5
Saturday, August 31 – 12:00 p.m. ET / FS1

News broke that Connecticut has been in talks with the Big 12 about joining that conference. With that news, the possibility exists the Huskies could join in all sports right away except for football because the program is so far away from being competitive even in a league without Texas and Oklahoma. Nonetheless, Maryland is trying to sort out their quarterback situation and that scared off enough bettors to drop the Terps four points to -20.5. The concern about Maryland early is they have excessive player turnover with the current coaching staff and seem to have to restart each year.

Monday Bet Percentage: Connecticut 60%
Doug’s Pick – On Friday

CFB – (163) Ohio U. vs. (164) Syracuse -17.5
Saturday, August 31 – 3:30 p.m. ET / ACCN

New Syracuse head coach Fran Brown has gotten people in New York fired up about football again. The Orange brand had lost its juice and was a non-factor in the ACC. Brown’s first big signing was former Ohio State QB Kyle McCord and they are welcoming back top rusher LeQuint Allen and other productive offensive players. The ‘Cuse climbed from -14.5 to -17.5 against visiting Ohio. U. Nobody was hurt worse in the MAC in the portal than the Bobcats. The issue for Ohio U. is finding any continuity to begin the season with so many new faces.

Monday Bet Percentage: Syracuse 90%
Doug’s Pick – On Friday

CFB – (175) Southern Miss at (176) Kentucky -28
Saturday, August 31 – 7:45 p.m. ET / SECN

If you look at Kentucky football, before coach Mark Stoops arrived in Lexington in 2013, the Wildcats had six winning seasons over 27 years. Kentucky has seven winning seasons under Stoops. Other than the years legendary coach Bear Bryant was in Kentucky in the late 1940s and early 50s, this is the next highest watermark. Southern Miss was once known for quality QB play (think Brett Favre), and sending numerous defensive players to the NFL. Not anymore, as the Golden Eagles are also ran in the competitive Sun Belt. Nobody can be surprised Kentucky jumped from -24 to -28 in this skirmish.  

Monday Bet Percentage: Kentucky 80%
Doug’s Pick – On Friday

CFB – (219) Boston College at (220) Florida St. -17
Monday, Sept. 2 – 7:30 p.m. ET / ESPN

Though Florida State was an unpopular pick to cover versus Georgia Tech, few thought the Yellow Jackets could actually beat the #10 Seminoles. Florida State was beaten up front on both sides of the ball by their ACC foe. The Noles were believed to have a Top 5 defensive line and they lacked in gap integrity and overrunning cutback lanes. Florida State cannot afford a 0-2 conference start, yet, unimpressed bettors are backing B.C. as the Eagles have flown from +21 to +17. Veteran coach Bill O’Brien knows offense and will likely only make QB Thomas Castellanos a better player. Watch the line as the week progresses, this might be too much of an overreaction.

Monday Bet Percentage: Boston College 65%
Doug’s Pick – Check Back on Friday

Note: When line moves occur, two aspects drive the numbers to go in different directions from where they started. There has either been a substantial amount of wagers and money to push the oddsmaker’s original release or highly respected bets have been placed by sharp bettor(s).

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