By Doug Upstone
The lines on all college football games have been up for months. To get a weekly honest read, that will start next week after everyone has played. Just so you are aware, ALL Free Picks are here on Friday’s update addition. Here are all the updates, plus one more game.
CFB – (151) Florida Int. at (152) Indiana -21.5 – Saturday, August 31 – 3:30 p.m. ET / Big
Though Indiana figures to be among the worst teams in the Big Ten, football bettors view them as being dramatically better than Florida International and moved the Hoosiers from -18.5 to -21.5. 
FIU struggles to keep home-grown talent, even those left over from the Power 4 conferences. Indiana hired Curt Cignetti as their new head coach from James Madison, and he brought some of those talented players to Bloomington to kickstart a new offense, to establish a new Indiana identity. Offhand, this seems like a lot of points to give out. Update: The are a few -22s floating around, but this line is mostly unchanged. Most sharper bettors will take a number over three touchdowns on a team with a new head coach putting in a new system.
Bet Percentage: Was Indiana 80+%, now 75%
Doug’s Pick – Lean FIU
CFB – (155) Connecticut at (156) Maryland -20.5 – Saturday, August 31 – 12:00 p.m. ET / FS1
News broke that Connecticut has been in talks with the Big 12 about joining that conference. With that news, the possibility exists the Huskies could join in all sports right away except for football because the program is so far away from being competitive even in a league without Texas and Oklahoma. 
Nonetheless, Maryland is trying to sort out their quarterback situation and that scared off enough bettors to drop the Terps four points to -20.5. The concern about Maryland early is they have excessive player turnover with the current coaching staff and seem to have to restart each year. Update: The Turtles have dropped to -19.5, yet the tickets and money are on the Huskies. If Maryland shows up they have the speed and size difference to cover.
Bet Percentage: Was Connecticut 60%, now Maryland 85%
Doug’s Pick – Maryland covers
CFB – (163) Ohio U. vs. (164) Syracuse -17.5 – Saturday, August 31 – 3:30 p.m. ET / ACCN
New Syracuse head coach Fran Brown has gotten people in New York fired up about football again. The Orange brand had lost its juice and was a non-factor in the ACC. 
Brown’s first big signing was former Ohio State QB Kyle McCord and they are welcoming back top rusher LeQuint Allen and other productive offensive players. The ‘Cuse climbed from -14.5 to -17.5 against visiting Ohio. U. Nobody was hurt worse in the MAC in the portal than the Bobcats. The issue for Ohio U. is finding any continuity to begin the season with so many new faces. Update: A modest bump on the Orange to -18. All reports have everyone in the Empire State back on board with Syracuse football and Brown is an aggressive coach who will want to make an early statement.
Bet Percentage: Was Syracuse 90%, now 65%
Doug’s Pick – Syracuse covers
CFB – (175) Southern Miss at (176) Kentucky -28 – Saturday, August 31 – 7:45 p.m. ET / SECN
If you look at Kentucky football, before coach Mark Stoops arrived in Lexington in 2013, the Wildcats had six winning seasons over 27 years. Kentucky has seven winning seasons under Stoops. Other than the years legendary coach Bear Bryant was in Kentucky in the late 1940s and early 50s, this is the next highest watermark. Southern Miss was once known for quality QB play (think Brett Favre), and sending numerous defensive players to the NFL. Not anymore, as the Golden Eagles are also ran in the competitive Sun Belt. Nobody can be surprised Kentucky jumped from -24 to -28 in this skirmish. Update: Not surprisingly, a little backup with the ‘Cats now at -26.5 or -27. It is interesting to note 85% of the tickets are on Kentucky, with 60% of the cash on them.
Bet Percentage: Was Kentucky 80%, now 60%
Doug’s Pick – Sorry, a Premium Pick
NEW – CFB – (191) Miami-O at (192) Northwestern Total 39.5 – Saturday, August 31 – 3:30 p.m. ET / BTN
As bettors looked this Midwest matchup over, they made a decision points would be at a premium, dropping the total from 43 to 39.5 as the week progressed. Both teams return strong defenses that can help create the tempo of the game and each offense is likely going to need big plays to get near the end zone because long, sustained drives seem far and few between. Nonetheless, weather is not an expected issue when playing at a different stadium at Northwestern while Ryan Field is being renovated. This seems like a few too many points tumble and we’ll stick with the original total and say someone wins 23-20 for the OVER.
Bet Percentage: 80% UNDER
Doug’s Pick – UNDER
CFB – (219) Boston College at (220) Florida St. -17 – Monday, Sept. 2 – 7:30 p.m. ET / ESPN
Though Florida State was an unpopular pick to cover versus Georgia Tech, few thought the Yellow Jackets could actually beat the #10 Seminoles. 
Florida State was beaten up front on both sides of the ball by their ACC foe. The Noles were believed to have a Top 5 defensive line and they lacked in gap integrity and overrunning cutback lanes. Florida State cannot afford a 0-2 conference start, yet, unimpressed bettors are backing B.C. as the Eagles have flown from +21 to +17. Veteran coach Bill O’Brien knows offense and will likely only make QB Thomas Castellanos a better player. Watch the line as the week progresses, this might be too much of an overreaction. Update: A couple of -16.5 have surfaced, but mostly the same. We’ll have to see what if anything happens on Monday, once bettors focus on the ACC encounter. Cannot imagine Coach Norvell will accept that effort in Ireland and have his players ready.
Bet Percentage: Was Boston College 65%, now Florida St. 55%%
Doug’s Pick – Lean Florida State
CFB Top 5 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order): Oklahoma (Fri.), Alabama, Boise State Maryland and Nebraska
CFB Top 5 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order): Ohio U./Syracuse UNDER, New Mexico/Arizona OVER, Wyoming/Ariz. State OVER. Miami-O/Northwestern UNDER and Fresno St./Michigan UNDER
Get more NFL and college football lines moves, free picks and betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.
Note: When line moves occur, two aspects drive the numbers to go in different directions from where they started. There has either been a substantial amount of wagers and money to push the oddsmaker’s original release or highly respected bets have been placed by sharp bettor(s).
About Us
T&C
Privacy
Contact
Submit video