Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Week 11 Update

Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Week 11 Update

College Football Week 11 Lines Moves and Free Picks

If you have been following the Line Moves here all season, you might notice that this week has the shortest spreads of the season. That typically happens in November when the oddsmakers put out sharper numbers and bettor’s attention gravitates to more marquee matchups. Today, review the updates and free picks that are 38-28 ATS on the season.

NEW – CFB – (127) West Virginia at (128) Total 55
Saturday, November 9 – 12:00 p.m. ET / FS1

There are other games against the spread that had line moves against the spread, but they were injury-related, this we ended up here. The total in the Big 12 battle has fallen from 57.5 to 55. With West Virginia actually scoring more points on the road than at home (34.3 vs. 25.4) this seems to point to one conclusion. The average score of a Cincinnati home game is 46.3 points, which includes a 38-20 win over Towson State, which makes it even lower facing FBS competition. It appears the belief is the Bearcats will control how the game is played and slow down the Mountaineers. That can be supported by West Virginia 5-0 UNDER vs. playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%).

Bet Percentage: UNDER 90%

Doug’s Pick–Play UNDER

CFB – (133) Navy at (134) South Florida  Total 57.5
Saturday, November 9 – 12:00 p.m. ET / ESPN2

After a shocking 6-0 start, Navy dropped two straight. The first was expected in facing Notre Dame but not last week in soggy Houston, falling to Rice 24-10. After committing just two turnovers in winning six straight, the Midshipmen have eight in their last two games. South Florida has won its last two to get back to .500 and has a shot again to be bowl-eligible. The Bulls offense has perked up facing less competition with 35 and 44 points and the total is up two points to 57.5. It’s worth noting the Middies are 6-2 OVER on the road after an away game. Update: There has been definite buyback to 56.5, a full point which is more in line with the betting percentages. The number really appears spot on but we’ll lean with the higher score with the combatants 24-12 OVER in AAC play since 2022.

Bet Percentage: Was OVER 59%. Now 57%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Over

CFB – (151) UCF at (152) Arizona State -3
Saturday, November 9 –7:00 p.m. ET / ESPN2

Arizona State was expected to do even worse in the Big 12 than in the Pac-12 this season. However, ASU coach Ken Dillingham worked to distance himself from the program’s past and has his team at a stunning 6-2. The Sun Devils have a tough schedule in their last three contests, but it is a bit of a surprise they lowered to -3 from -5.5 against 4-5 SU Central Florida. The Knights ended their five-game losing streak with a demolition of Arizona 56-12, but they still need two triumphs to go bowling. The public is all over UCF and power ratings back it up, yet, you lose this many games in a row not sure where the respect comes from. Update: This number came down in a hurry this week when the news broke Sun Devils RB Cam Skattebo is “doubtful”. ASU went back to -3 and on Friday afternoon roughly half the sportsbook lowered the number down to 2.5. That is a blow for Arizona State, but UCF is wildly inconsistent and let’s say the home team rallies around their best player to squeak one out.

Bet Percentage: Was UCF 87%, now 61%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Arizona State covers

CFB – (175) Utah State at (176) Washington State Total 70
Saturday, November 9 – 10:30 p.m. ET / CW Network

Despite a tumultuous off-season, Washington State coach Jake Dickert has kept his club focused on just playing football and the Cougars are 7-1 with their only setback at Boise State. Washington State is in the Top 20 in scoring (38.1 PPG) and total offense (448.8 YPG). Wazzou will host Utah State, which is among the worst defensive groups in the country. The Aggies surrender 41.5 PPG (#132/next to last) and are #131 in yards allowed at almost 500 per contest. Little wonder the total has climbed from 68.5 to 70 points. Utah State should have a good chance to score their season average of 28.8 PPG, with the Cougars permitting 26.9 PPG. Update: The betting market is completely satisfied with the adjusted total of 70. We agree, but we still like a higher score with the Aggies pathetic defense. Utah State is 8-1 OVER after playing their last game on the road and 6-0 OVER playing against a team with a win percentage of 75% or higher. Both angles land in the mid-70s.

Bet Percentage: Was OVER 57%, no movement

Doug’s Pick – Play OVER

CFB – (177) Arkansas State at (178) Louisiana -16.5
Saturday, November 9 – 7:00 p.m. ET / ESPN+

For many, this matchup won’t mean much, but to these two squads in the Sun Belt West, it means everything. Louisiana is atop the SBC West at 4-0 (7-1 SU on the year). Arkansas State is second at 3-1 (5-3 SU) but is outscored by 7.4 PPG. However, that is because they lost at Iowa State by 45 and by 33 at Texas State. The Ragin’ Cajuns run a well-balanced offense that is #26 in yardage. Louisiana throws the ball vertically very well, averaging 8.8 yards per pass attempt (YPPA) which is #17. Football bettors have pounded the home team and moved the Cajuns three points to -16.5. ULL is 10-1 and 7-3-1 ATS as hosts in the confrontation. Update: No surprise that Arkansas State is back two digits to +14.5. The Red Wolves are a good passing team (#45) at over 250 YPG, however, the Ragin’ Cajuns are on a 5-0 ATS run vs. opponents that throw for 250 or more yards. Like the value of the lower price, which will back the home team.

Bet Percentage: Was Louisiana 80%, now 72%

Doug’s Pick – Louisiana covers

CFB – (195) Florida State at (196) Notre Dame -26
Saturday, November 9 – 7:30 p.m. ET / NBC

If you go back to the summertime when college football lines were first released, you could have picked up Notre Dame for -4 in what was expected to be a matchup to rival Alabama vs. LSU this Saturday. Instead, the Seminoles are one the greatest collapses for a team ranked in the Top 10 to begin the year. Florida State is currently +26 after opening up at +24.5 on the lookahead line. If you know anything about coach Mike Norvell at Memphis or Florida State it is inconceivable he would be in charge of an offense that ranks next to last in scoring and total offense. It feels like the Fighting Irish can pick what they want the final score to be. Update: Everyone’s satisfied with Notre Dame at this point at -26. In terms of backing them, the total is only 42.5, which makes a predicted score of 34-8 favoring the Irish. Is that possible, of course, but so is 31-10 or 35-7. No easy call because you don’t know the Irish player’s state of mind in a very winnable conflict.

Bet Percentage: Was Notre Dame 78%, now 72%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Notre Dame covers

CFB Top 5 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) (28-22 record): South Florida, Vanderbilt, James Madison, San Jose State and North Texas

CFB Top 5 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) (27-23 record): Clemson/Virginia Tech OVER, Maryland/Oregon OVER, Temple/Tulane OVER, West Virginia/Cincinnati UNDER and Oklahoma/Missouri UNDER

Get more college football betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.