Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Week 13 Update

Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Week 13 Update

College Football Week 13 Lines Moves and Free Picks

For the first time in several weeks, we have more sides than totals for line moves in college football. Trying to guess why is purely speculation. What isn’t an opinion is our Free Picks record at 47-31 ATS (60.2%). Here is today’s update and Free Picks.

CFB – (129) Wake Forest at (130) Miami-FL  Total 64.5
Saturday, November 23 – 12:00 p.m. ET / ESPN

Since losing to Georgia Tech, Miami has tried to figure out how to improve its defense, which is permitting 31.7 PPG in ACC action. The Hurricanes still control their destiny to reach the ACC title game if they win this week and next week at Syracuse. With Miami favored by a chalky -24 points, not many think the Canes will falter, but the total has drifted southward by three points to 64.5. With the Demon Deacons allowing 35.2 PPG in conference play and Miami averaging 45 PPG, it’s safe to assume QB Cam Ward and company will score in the 40s. The deciding factor is how many points will Wake Forest ring up. Update: Since Monday we have seen a complete turnaround on the total, going back to 67, almost where it started. By kickoff Saturday we could see at 67.5 or maybe higher. Though Wake Forest has Under tendencies, look for Miami to dictate the tempo and the Hurricanes are 5-0 OVER after gaining 325 or more passing yards in two straight games.

Bet Percentage: Was OVER 55%, now 87%

Doug’s Pick – Play OVER

CFB – (135) North Carolina at (136) Boston College +3.5
Saturday, November 23 – 12:00 p.m. ET / CW Network

After losing four in a row, UNC veteran coach Mack Brown asked his players if he should step aside, feeling terrible. The players said “no” and North Carolina improved on defense in particular and has taken three straight. After a 4-1 start, Boston College has lost four of five, all in the ACC, and needs a win for a bowl berth at 5-5. Football bettors aren’t sure if the Eagles can secure a ‘W’ and lift them from +1 to +3.5 point home underdogs. Interesting to note, that the Tar Heels are 1-9 ATS after three consecutive games where they committed one or fewer turnovers. Update: A buyback on the home team, with the Eagles at +2.5. With the spread sitting below three, there is less value backing B.C. unless you believe they can win outright. There is ample info to go either way. We’ll side with the Heels who are finishing stronger to close the season.

Bet Percentage: Was North Carolina 65%, now Boston College 70%

Doug’s Pick – Lean North Carolina

NEW – CFB – (141) Mississippi at (142) Florida +11.5
Saturday, November 23 – 12:00 p.m. ET / ABC

Since losing to LSU in OT, Mississippi has come together as a team in winning three straight and is currently in the college football tournament. But the Rebels have zero margin for error and even a close win could dock points against them from the committee. Football bettors are all over Ole Miss as they jumped from -9 to -11.5. Florida has improved since losing 33-20 at Gainesville to Texas A&M. The Gators should have probably beaten Tennessee and hung in with Georgia for three quarters before falling. They were dismantled by Texas but followed that up with a quality upset over LSU last week. Though there are sharps and dog players alike on Florida, the Gators had a rare no-turnover game against the Bengal Tigers, having committed eight in their previous four games. The rugged Rebels defense has generated 11 turnovers in the last 20 quarters and has forced at least two from the opposition in eight of 10 starts. This is how the spread winner will be determined.

Bet Percentage: Mississippi 81%

Doug’s Pick – Mississippi covers

CFB – (149) Tulsa at (150) South Florida  Total 61
Saturday, November 23 – 3:30 p.m. ET / ESPN+

By winning three of four, if South Florida emerges victorious this week, they will be 6-5 and bowl-eligible. Tulsa at 3-7 will not play in the postseason for the seventh time in eight years. With the Golden Hurricane surrendering better than 38 PPG and USF past 28 PPG, the total jumped from 59 to 61 points. In each squad’s past three outings, Tulsa’s average total score is 78 points and the Bulls are at 61. These AAC foes have played three consecutive OVERs, will this be another? Update: The total came back a touch to 60.5. There is not enough defense from either side to suggest a lower score and we’ll jump on the OVER with Tulsa on a 5-1 OVER run a USF 3-1 OVER.

Bet Percentage: Was OVER 64%, now 85%

Doug’s Pick – Play OVER

CFB – (171) Iowa State at (172) Utah +6.5
Saturday, November 23 – 7:30 p.m. ET / FOX

Utah was the preseason favorite to win the Big 12 in their first year. But the Utes have gone through a brutal quarterback situation and have not found an answer, falling six straight times (1-5 ATS) and might not even reach a bowl game. Iowa State was not highly thought of this upcoming season. A stunning 7-0 start caught everyone off guard. Sloppy losses to Texas Tech and Kansas derailed a great season, but polishing off Cincinnati restored order for the Cyclones. Those betting on college football have shoved ISU from -5 to -6.5 figuring Utah doesn’t have much to play for even on Senior Day. Update: Despite Iowa State still being a 6.5-point away fave, Utah has been shifted to a slight choice to cover. Though we expect the Utes to play hard at home as usual, they are averaging a mere 17.5 PPG in the Big 12 and 19.5 PPG in their past three outings. Iowa State has forced two or more turnovers in seven of their 10 starts and Utah has committed two or more miscues in seven of their 10 contests, which will decide the game and point spread.

Bet Percentage: Was Iowa State 74%, now Utah 52%

Doug’s Pick – Iowa State covers

CFB – (221) Army vs. (222) Notre Dame -14
Saturday, November 23 – 7:00 p.m. ET / NBC

This is a trip down memory lane for older fans. These two played annually from 1919 to 1947 and combined to win six national championships in the 1940s. (N.D. 4 & Army 2) The Black Knights are 9-0 for the first time in 75 years under the remarkable leadership of coach Jeff Monken, who proved you can win at Army. Notre Dame is 9-1 and one of the Top 6 teams in the country and they need two wins to reach a tournament berth, which Army is also playing for. Amazingly, sharp money has pushed the underdog from +17 to +14 for this matchup at Yankee Stadium. Update: On Wednesday, Notre Dame went back to -14.5, where they stayed for two days before slipping back to -14 on Friday morning. The key to the game is who can impose their will to run and who can stop the other team’s rushing the ball. Figure that out and you’ll be on the right side.

Bet Percentage: Was Notre Dame 63%, unchanged

Doug’s Pick –Sorry, Premium Pick

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