Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Week 2 Update

Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Week 2 Update

By Doug Upstone

There is not as many mismatches this week. Football bettors start the routine of matching wits early with the sportsbooks on a weekly basis. All Free Picks are bloew for this weeke’nds NCAA and NFL action.

NEW – CFB – (305) Georgia Tech at (306) Syracuse Total 61
Saturday, Sept. 7 – 12:00 p.m. ET / ACCN

This ACC action began at 57.5 and as the week went along it zoomed to 61. In attempting to understand why, Syracuse could have a very potent passing offense led by former Ohio State starting QB Kyle McCord who threw for 354 yards last week. Georgia Tech’s run offense appears very potent at 207.5 yards a game and Syracuse was gouged for 255 yards by Ohio. U. Maybe this ends up being a game that reaches the 60s, but we’ll call for a few field goals on stalled drives that keep this battle around the original total.

Bet Percentage: 70% on OVER
Doug’s Pick – Take UNDER

CFB – (319) Texas at (320) Michigan +7
Saturday, September 7 – 12:00 p.m. ET / FOX

Those who watched Texas and Michigan last week came across with a very strong opinion after just four quarters. The Longhorns look like one of the top teams in the country and the defending college football champion Wolverines do not. Despite Michigan playing at home, they have blown up as home favorites from +3 to +7. Michigan only posted 269 yards against a Fresno State squad that is believed to be no better than 4^th in the Mountain West. New MEECHigan head coach Sherrone Moore will see if he can motivate a home underdog in the Big House. Update: During the week, the Longhorns were at -7.5 at most sportsbooks, but Thursday afternoon the line dropped back to -7 as Wolverine fans and mostly sharp action were willing to take the hook.

Bet Percentage: Was Texas 90%, Now 60%
Doug’s Pick – Lean Michigan (Prefer the UNDER, see video at GamblersWorld.com)

CFB – (329) Baylor at (330) Utah -14
Saturday, September 7 – 3:30 p.m. ET / FOX

After Baylor and Utah posted easy opening wins, they get down to the business of facing better competition. For those wondering about the conference implications of this matchup, there are not any. This is part two of a home and away series from last year that was scheduled as non-conference action. It is a bit of a surprise to see Utah slip a full three points to -14 with most football experts not high on the Bears. The quarterback matchup of Cam Rising for the Utes facing the Bears Dequan Finn could determine the spread winner. Update: A small backtrack to 14.5 during the week. No easy choice with this one, but the Utes are rugged at home and could unsettle Baylor.

Bet Percentage: Was Baylor 90%, Now 60%
Doug’s Pick – Lean Utah

CFB – (349) Marshall at (350) Virginia Tech -20
Saturday, September 7 – 4:30 p.m. ET / CW-N

Virginia Tech was a 13.5-point favorite heading to Vanderbilt but didn’t get the wake-call and fell behind 17-0. The Hokies began playing from that juncture and came back to tie the Commodores 20-all and took a 27-20 lead with only 4:21 to play after a 97-yard drive. However, the Virginia Tech defense failed to keep the ‘Dores out of the end zone in regulation and OT and was upset, allowing 371 yards of offense. With Marshall having won at home last year against the Hokies 24-17 (-6.5 point faves), bettors expect VT to shine, bumping them up from -17 to -20. Update: This number was steady all week until late Thursday when we saw a bit of movement on the Hokies to -20.5, mostly sharper action. We concur.

Bet Percentage: Was Virginia Tech 80%, Now 70%
Doug’s Pick – Virginia Tech covers

CFB – (353) East Carolina at (354) Old Dominion +2.5
Saturday, September 7 – 6:00 p.m. ET / ESPN+

Despite Old Dominion giving South Carolina all they could handle and more before falling 23-19 as 20.5-point road underdogs, the betting masses have flipped the script. The Monarchs opened as two-point favorites for their home opener, yet, are currently +2.5. This conflict could come down to who protects the ball the best. Last week ODU lost because they committed four turnovers. ECU quarterback Jake Garcia had 308 yards passing and four TD passes, but he also tossed three picks and lost a fumble, in the Pirates’ six turnovers. Update: This matchup went back to a Pick and we are seeing ODU popping up as a 1.5-point choice again. ECU has more firepower and if they end up back as an underdog, the Pirates could steal the money. The total on this encounter exploded from 49 to 54, with 75% backing.

Bet Percentage: Was East Carolina 75%, Now Old Dominion 55%
Doug’s Pick – Leans ECU and UNDER

CFB – (355) South Alabama at (356) Ohio U. +2
Saturday, September 7 – 6:00 p.m. ET / ESPN+

In this SBC vs. MAC matchup, there’s been a changing of the guard. South Alabama lost 52-38 to North Texas as six-point home favorites, yet, they have gone from +1 to -2.5 digit away faves in Athens, Ohio. The Bobcats of Ohio beat the spread in succumbing to Syracuse 38-22 as 17-point road chalk. In seeking a reason, it’s probably the Ohio pass defense, which was torched for 364 yards by the Orange, and USA ball-chucker Gio Lopez had 432 passing yards in spite of not being particularly accurate (26 of 49). The challenge for the Jaguars is slowing Bobcats runner Anthony Tyus III who had 203 yards rushing in only 16 carries. Let’s see if this number holds. Update: About half the books have dipped on USA to -2 with the rest still -2.5. If the Bobcats can run the ball and control the clock, they can win at Peden Stadium where they are 6-2 ATS catching points the last three years. It’s also worth noting the total shot up from 54 to 57, which would seem to benefit the visitor. A whopping 85% backing the OVER.

Bet Percentage: Was South Alabama 90%, Now 80%
Doug’s Pick – Ohio U. covers and Lean OVER

CFB Top 5 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) 4-1 record: Ohio State, Alabama, Louisville, Missouri and Ole Miss

CFB Top 5 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) 4-1 record: Iowa State/Iowa UNDER, Kansas St./Tulane UNDER, App. State/Clemson UNDER, Texas Tech/Washington State OVER and Kansas/Illinois OVER

Get more college football betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.