Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Week 3

Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Week 3

College Football Week 3 Early Lines Moves

With a couple of weeks in the drawer, we can start formulating stronger thoughts on teams as we begin to see the oddsmakers’ lines tighten up. All Free Picks will come on Friday’s update.

CFB – (117) Central Mich. at (118) Illinois -20
Saturday, September 7 – 12:00 p.m. ET / Peacock

Expectations were very low for Illinois this season, but the upset of Kansas, 23-17 as 5.5-point home underdogs, at least for the moment lifted expectations for the Fighting Illini. Central Michigan was blasted 52-16 by Florida International as 3.5-point road favorites thanks to committing SIX turnovers while forcing none. There is no question that Coach Jim McElwain will focus on ball security for the Chippewas. Illinois was elevated from -18 to -20 home favorites this week, but with the Big Ten opener at Nebraska next week, is this a flat spot for the Illini?

Early Bet Percentage: Illinois 75%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

CFB – (119) Memphis at (120) Florida St. -7
Saturday, September 14 – 12:00 p.m. ET / ESPN

Florida State is an ugly 0-2 and is one loss away from probably having a losing season after starting the year #10 in the country. The Seminoles were believed to have a Top 10 defensive line, but after two games they rank #122 in stopping the run. Despite this, the Noles are beefed up from -5 to -7 versus visiting Memphis. The Tigers have only faced two meager offenses in No. Alabama and Troy and allowed 17 points. Memphis is just #90 in rushing, preferring to throw the pigskin, but is only averaging 234.5 YPG via the pass. That should help Florida State.

Early Bet Percentage: Memphis 65%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

CFB – (135) Texas A&M at (136) Florida Total 46.5
Saturday, September 14 – 3:30 p.m. ET / ABC

Each of these squads rebounded from stunning opening week losses, making this a critical contest. This is true not only for the SEC standings but also for the direction in which either team could go. Both clubs were feeble offensively in Game 1 and football bettors are not certain they will improve substantially and dropped the total from 49 to 46.5. Aggies QB Conner Weigman is barely completing 50% of his pass attempts (23-44). Gators coach Billy Napier plans to use Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway quarterbacks if Mertz completes concussion protocol. Two QBs seeing a similar amount of time in the same game is seldom a recipe for success.

Early Bet Percentage: UNDER 90+%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

CFB – (139) Oregon at (140) Oregon State +16
Saturday, September – 14  3:30 p.m. ET / FOX

Having the Civil War played in September is a weird deal, but at least it’s being played. Oregon State sports are like an orphan after all their “family” moved away. Nobody knows the long-term effect this will have on the Beavers football program, but it cannot be positive. New coach Trent Bray is focusing his squad on the moment and they were shoved from +14 to +16 against hated rival Oregon. The Ducks were considered one of the Top 3 squads to start the season, but after lackluster wins and non-covers facing Idaho and Boise State at home, Coach Lanning’s outfit is filled with questions. The home team has covered four straight and six of eight. What happens with this peculiar date?

Early Bet Percentage: Oregon State 55%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

CFB – (181) Toledo at (182) Mississippi St. -12.5
Saturday, September 14 – 7:30 p.m. ET / ESPNU

With Toledo rocketing three points to +12.5 at Mississippi State, the first inclination was to make sure QB Tucker Gleason was able to play. There were no reports of an injury for the 2-0 Rockets. This line movement is likely more a function of an SEC school hosting a MAC program in football. Toledo will leave Starkville with a ringing in their ears after all the cowbells the Bulldogs fans will have in the stadium. Miss. State was ambushed at Arizona State 30-23 in a game that wasn’t that close with the Sun Devils ahead 30-3 late in the third quarter. The Rockets are comfortable meeting Power 4 programs, but SEC speed is different.

Bet Percentage: Miss. State 70%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

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