Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Week 3 Update

Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Week 3 Update

College Football Week 3 Lines Moves

With a couple of weeks in the drawer, we can start formulating stronger thoughts on teams as we begin to see the oddsmakers’ lines tighten up. All Free Picks will come on Friday’s update. Here we go with fresh material!

CFB – (117) Central Mich. at (118) Illinois -20
Saturday, September 7 – 12:00 p.m. ET / Peacock

Expectations were very low for Illinois this season, but the upset of Kansas, 23-17 as 5.5-point home underdogs, at least for the moment lifted expectations for the Fighting Illini. Central Michigan was blasted 52-16 by Florida International as 3.5-point road favorites thanks to committing SIX turnovers while forcing none. No question that Coach Jim McElwain will focus on ball security for the Chippewas. Illinois was elevated from -18 to -20 home favorites this week, but with the Big Ten opener at Nebraska next week, is this a flat spot for the Illini? Update: Not unexpectedly, this line has come back to 18.5. The vast majority of the sharp money is backing the Chips! The total has also slid from 53 to 49.5. This makes sense as the Illini want run and control the clock.

Bet Percentage: Was Illinois 75%, Now CMU 60% and 60% UNDER

Doug’s Pick – Central Michigan covers and UNDER

CFB – (119) Memphis at (120) Florida St. -7
Saturday, September 14 – 12:00 p.m. ET / ESPN

Florida State is an ugly 0-2 and is one loss away from probably having a losing season after starting the year #10 in the country. The Seminoles were believed to have a Top 10 defensive line, but after two games they rank #122 in stopping the run. Despite this, the Noles are beefed up from -5 to -7 versus visiting Memphis. The Tigers have only faced two meager offenses in No. Alabama and Troy and allowed 17 points. Memphis is just #90 in rushing, preferring to throw the pigskin, but is only averaging 234.5 YPG via the pass. That should help Florida State. Update: A slight buyback on Memphis or is it against the Seminoles? Florida State is a complete mess but losing that half a point is possibly big deal if you prefer the underdog. At this price a small lean on Coach Norvell to fix things at least enough to get a cover, knowing the Tigers are 2-8 ATS as away dogs.

Bet Percentage: Was Memphis 65%, Now 68%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Florida State covers

CFB – (135) Texas A&M at (136) Florida Total 46.5
Saturday, September 14 – 3:30 p.m. ET / ABC

Each of these squads rebounded from stunning opening week losses, making this a critical contest. This is true not only for the SEC standings but what direction either team could go. Both clubs were feeble offensively in Game 1 and football bettors are not certain they will improve substantially and dropped the total from 49 to 46.5. Aggies QB Conner Weigman barely completes 50% of his pass attempts (23-44). Gators coach Billy Napier plans to use quarterbacks Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway if Mertz completes concussion protocol. Two QBs seeing a similar amount of time in the same game is seldom a recipe for success. Update: The total continues to go down with most books at 46 and a few even at 45.5. All the value has been sucked dry, but let’s go with somebody wins 20-17 or 23-20 for the UNDER.

Bet Percentage: Was UNDER 90+%, Now 60%

Doug’s Pick–Play UNDER

CFB – (139) Oregon at (140) Oregon State +16
Saturday, September 14 – 3:30 p.m. ET / FOX

Having the Civil War played in September is a weird deal, but at least it’s being played. Oregon State sports are like an orphan after all their “family” moved away. Nobody knows the long-term effect this will have on the Beavers football program, but it cannot be positive. New coach Trent Bray is focusing his squad on the moment and they were shoved from +14 to +16 against hated rival Oregon. The Ducks were considered one of the Top 3 squads to start the season, but after lackluster wins and non-covers facing Idaho and Boise State at home, Coach Lanning’s outfit is filled with questions. The home team has covered four straight and six of eight. What happens with this peculiar date? Update: Though the money and tickets continue to back the Beavers, the Ducks are up to -16.5.

Bet Percentage: Was Oregon State 55%, Now 60%

Doug’s Pick – Sorry, Premium Play

NEW -CFB – (147) Nevada at (148) Minnesota -17.5
Saturday, Sept. 14 – 3:30 p.m. ET / BTN

There was a little early action on this MWC/Big Ten skirmish. The money started rolling in later Tuesday on Minnesota, with the Golden Gophers up to -17.5 from -14. Nevada has played three close contests, decided by just 10 points and is 1-2 and 2-1 ATS. All three of the clubs the Wolf Pack has faced are more finesse opponents and there is nothing subtle about the Golden Gophers. Look for Minnesota just to wear down Nevada over four quarters and beat this number.

Bet Percentage: Minnesota 70%

Doug’s Pick – Minnesota covers

CFB – (181) Toledo at (182) Mississippi St. -12.5
Saturday, September 14 – 7:30 p.m. ET / ESPNU

With Toledo rocketing three points to +12.5 at Mississippi State, the first inclination was to make sure QB Tucker Gleason was able to play. There were no reports of an injury for the 2-0 Rockets. This line movement is likely more a function of an SEC school hosting a MAC program in football. Toledo will leave Starkville with a ringing in their ears after all the cowbells the Bulldogs fans will have in the stadium. Miss. State was ambushed at Arizona State 30-23 in a game that wasn’t that close with the Sun Devils ahead 30-3 late in the third quarter. The Rockets are comfortable meeting Power 4 programs, but SEC speed is different. Update: This has drifted backwards with Toledo now catching +10.5 digits. In a nonconference clash involving two offenses averaging 330 to 390 YPG, the road team is 47-18 ATS, losing by 6.4 PPG.

Bet Percentage: Was Miss. State 70%, Now 65%

Doug’s Pick – Toledo cover

CFB Top 5 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) 8-2 record: Tennessee, Miami-FL, Hawai’i, FIU and Florida

CFB Top 5 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) 4-6 record: UAB/Arkansas OVER, Ball State/Miami-FL OVER, UTSA/Texas OVER, App. State/East Carolina OVER and Coastal Carol./Temple OVER

Get more college football betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.