Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Week 4 Update

Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Week 4 Update

College Football Week 4 Lines Moves

We start looking at Week 4 on the college gridiron for Line Moves. The biggest one by far was N.C. State leaping from +14.5 to +20 at Clemson but that is because QB Grayson McCall is not expected to play against the Tigers. We were 4-2 last week and have a bunch of free picks for you and public betting trends to follow.

CFB – (343) Ohio U. at (344) Kentucky -20
Saturday, September 21 – 12:45 p.m. ET / SECN

In what seems like an unusual scheduling arrangement, Kentucky hosts Ohio U. for the third straight time this century in a year that ends in four. (2004-14-24) Football bettors are impressed with the Wildcats’ defensive grit in holding then No. 1 Georgia to a mere 13 points and beefing up Kentucky from -17.5 to -20 against visiting Ohio U. The belief has to be the home ‘Cats #8 run defense can slow or even contain the Bobcats #15 rush attack lead by Anthony Tyus III, who is averaging 7.5 yards a carry. Both clubs prefer to run the ball, whoever can sustain drives and score should cover the number. Update: About 20% of the books have lowered the Wildcats to -19.5, but overall, the money has come more on the Bobcats as the week moved along. While Kentucky should be fired up after two conference losses, not sure they have a good enough passing attack at #127 to put Ohio U. away. The Cats win just by 17 or less.

Bet Percentage: Was Kentucky 70%, Now Ohio U. 60%

Doug’s Pick – Lean Ohio U.

CFB – (357) Baylor at (358) Colorado -1.5
Saturday, September 21 – 8:00 p.m. ET / FOX

Even in victory, Colorado coaches and players are poor sports saying Colorado State didn’t “respect them” in their 28-9 triumph. About the only true respect in a rivalry these days, is Army vs. Navy, as the Sanders family becomes more unlikeable by the day. However, the Buffaloes are receiving respect from somewhere as the Buffs were switched from +1 to -2 point favorites Monday before settling at -1.5. Baylor is playing the defense you would expect from a Dave Aranda-coached team. Nonetheless, the Bears have not faced a passing attack this season like Colorado which is #31 at more than 277 yards a game. The Baylor offense is hardly prolific in any area and their defense will have to contain Colorado to stay in the contest. Update: On Wednesday, this line settled at Colorado at -2 and has not budged. Baylor is the #1 pass defense in the country, but that is phony because Tarleton State and Air Force are pure running teams. We would love to take the underdog Bears, but they are averaging two turnovers a game, which could help Colorado. The slightest of leans with the home team.

Bet Percentage: Was Baylor 60%, Unchanged

Doug’s Pick – Lean Colorado

CFB – (365) Arkansas at (366) Auburn -3
Saturday, September 21 – 3:30 p.m. ET / ESPN

This is the SEC opener for both clubs. Each is 2-1 and wants to win to prevent their season from derailing. Arkansas was in a great position to knock off ranked Oklahoma State but made mistakes and lost 39-31 in OT as 10-point underdogs. They followed that up with a flat showing, beating UAB by only 10 as 25-point home favorites. Auburn was pathetic in falling to California 21-14 at home as a 10-point pick by committing five turnovers. Handling a no-good New Mexico club by 26 did nothing to improve their standing with the locals. The Razorbacks have fallen from -5 to -3 as the away team is on a 5-0 ATS run (4-1 SU) and 6-1 ATS since 2017. Update: Auburn is down to -2.5 in this showdown and the situation favors the Hogs as we explained. The preference is to take the home team; however, Coach Pittman of Arkansas is 9-3 ATS as an underdog and the Tigers are 0-5 ATS off a home win by 17 points or more.

Bet Percentage: Was Auburn 65%, Now Arkansas 75%

Doug’s Pick – Arkansas covers

CFB – (389) UCLA at (390) LSU -25
Saturday, September 21 – 3:45 p.m. ET / ABC

LSU hopping two points to -25 over UCLA likely has less to do with the Tigers than how UCLA looks. LSU had a come-from-behind clutch win at South Carolina but its defense breaks down with regularity. Coach Brian Kelly’s defense has surrendered 30 PPG to a pair of USC teams from each coast and even conceded 21 points to Nicholls State. That might not matter as the Bruins have tallied 29 total points versus Hawaii and Indiana which are not among the defensive elites in college football. If the LSU running game can get rolling to match their #23 pass offense at nearly 300 YPG, The Tigers could run away and beat this number. Update: Despite not having much change in best percentage, this matchup has gone below its original starting point of -23, to -22.5. Possibly, football bettors don’t trust the LSU defense to cover that large a number. Nevertheless, the Bengal Tigers are 11-3 ATS home of late and win by 24 or more against what looks like a bad Bruins bunch.

Bet Percentage: Was 92% LSU, Now 90%

Doug’s Pick – LSU covers

CFB – (397) Memphis at (398) Navy +9
Saturday, September 21 – 3:30 p.m. ET / CBSSN

Memphis is 3-0 SU and ATS and is one of the current top contenders from the G5 contingent that could earn a playoff berth after their upset at Florida State. The Tigers offense is run by senior QB Seth Henigan who has excellent command in the pocket. Despite the Navy having only faced FCS Bucknell and lowly Temple, the Midshipmen sank to +9.5 from an opening figure of +12.5. Since becoming AAC member, the Navy has caused problems for the Tigers, sporting a 6-3 ATS mark. Memphis has struggled with the Middies option and when they stop them or give up points, they have not shown patience on offense and fallen into the Navy’s trap. Will it happen again? Update: A modest buyback on Memphis to +9.5. Though we would love to be able to take Navy at +10, that appears unlikely to occur. The Middies run offense is back (#4) and they have a quarterback who is a better passer, which adds the element of surprise. Watch the Navy to keep this under 10 points.

Bet Percentage: Was Navy 62%, Now 73%

Doug’s Pick – Navy covers

NEW – CFB – (407) New Mexico St. at (408) Sam Houston St. -16.5
Saturday, Sept. 21 – 7:00 p.m. ET / ESPN+

This is not a game that will be on many college football bettors’ radar, yet, the line movement is exceptional if not puzzling. Sam Houston State has blown up from -13 to -16.5 over the Aggies of New Mexico State in this C-USA clash. What’s odd is the money and tickets are backing the visitor. The Bearkats have been impressive in whipping Rice and Hawai’i. New Mexico State lost by just six to Liberty at home as 20-point chalk but was blasted 48-0 at Fresno State last week catching 20 points again. With Sam Houston having revenge from last year and the Aggies seemingly returning to a bad football team with Jerry Kill having left as head coach the Bearkats get the call.

Bet Percentage: New Mexico State 80%

Doug’s Pick – Sam Houston State covers

CFB Top 5 Money ATS Bets (Highest in order) 10-5 record: Indiana, Ole Miss, Ohio State, LSU, and Western Kentucky

CFB Top 5 Money Totals Bets (Highest in order) 7-8 record: TCU/SMU OVER, Mich. State/Boston Coll. UNDER, UTEP/Colorado St. UNDER, Utah/Okla. State OVER and Houston/Cincinnati UNDER

Get more college football betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.