Gamblers World Line Moves: College Football Week 5

College Football Week 5 Early Lines Moves

We moved ahead in college football, and the lines are getting sharper on early releases. We still found five line moves that are significant and we break them all down. Make certain to return Friday for Free Picks, which have us at 17-11 and on a 9-4 run.

CFB – (105) Virginia Tech at (106) Miami-FL -19
Friday, September 27 – 7:30 p.m. ET / ESPN

Virginia Tech this season was supposed to be the beginning of a return to at least the Top 25 of college football. But with losses at Vanderbilt and home last Saturday to Rutgers, the Hokies season could be in trouble traveling to face #7 Miami. Two issues are clear for Virginia Tech. The Hokies are #95 trying to stop the run, permitting 181 yards a game. And take away 332 passing yards in the opener, QB Kyron Drones has averaged 147.6 YPG throwing since. With the Hurricanes having tremendous talent on both sides of the ball, little wonder Virginia Tech from +16 to +19.

Early Bet Percentage: Miami 90+%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

CFB – (117) Georgia Southern at (118) Georgia St. -3
Saturday, September 28 – 3:30 p.m. ET / ESPNU

Once again, the best things usually come first and are later homogenized. This Sun Belt rivalry was known for years as “Modern Day Hate”, which spoke to its intensity. Some whined and instead, we now have a corporate sponsor changing the name to – Georgia Grown (yawn). Oh well, Georgia State is the home team in this bitter matchup and they have gone from a Pick to -3. The home team has been on a 4-1 SU and ATS run and 5-2-1 ATS since 2016. In seeking a reason for the line movement, Georgia Southern is #132 (of #134) in total defense. When looking for the spread winner, find the right side when breaking this contest down, because the SU winner is on a 9-0-1 ATS run.

Early Bet Percentage: Georgia State 83%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

CFB – (137) Colorado at (138) UCF -14
Saturday, September 28 – 3:30 p.m. ET / FOX

Colorado might not be that good a team, but they have star power on the field and a coach that attracts attention and eyeballs to watch the Buffaloes. Colorado had a Hail Mary pass answered against Baylor to tie the game at the buzzer and they won in OT against the Bears. Early betting action has pounded the Buffs as you can see below, but the sharp money is backing Central Florida at home, lifting them from -11 to -14. The Knights had a miracle win of their own two Saturdays ago at TCU, outscoring the Horned Frogs 28-6 in the final 28 minutes to escape 35-34. UCF is #4 in rush defense, but with Colorado’s #20 pass offense, they’ve been able to overcome ranking #124 in rushing. Not sure sharp money respects the Buffaloes as much on the road.

Early Bet Percentage: Colorado 80%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

CFB – (151) Oklahoma St. at (152) Kansas St. Total 56
Saturday, September 28 – 12:00 p.m. ET / ESPN

For Oklahoma State, another Big 12 defeat might eliminate them for a spot in the conference title game. Kansas State was slaughtered 38-9 at BYU, undone by a 3-0 turnover deficit, in a contest they outgained the Cougars 367 to 241. Big 12 football bettors are focused on the total, moving upwards by three points to 55. The Cowboys are weaker than expected, especially in the lines. RB Ollie Gordon II was supposed to be an All-American, but to date has 248 yards, averaging 3.5 yards a carry. Okie State’s run defense checks in at #104, one tick from 200 YPG allowed. With Kansas State at home and #16 in rushing, the Wildcats will move the ball and we will find out who coach Mike Gundy will choose for quarterback.

Early Bet Percentage: OVER 60%

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

CFB – (165) Navy at (166) UAB +3
Saturday, September 28 – 12:00 p.m. ET / ESPN2

Navy is returning to on-brand after upsetting Memphis 56-44 as nine-point home favorites. The Midshipmen are 3-0 (2-1 ATS) and were floated from a Pick to -3 at UAB. The Blazers wisely used their bye week to have two weeks to prepare for the Navy’s option which is #3 in rushing. UAB is coached by Super Bowl champion QB Trent Dilfer, who got the job after being a successful high school coach in Tennessee and likely name recognition. The Blazers’ offense is only #104 in yards per play and they are #123 in rush defense, which includes taking on Alcorn State.

Early Bet Percentage: 80% Navy

Doug’s Pick – Back Friday

Get more college football betting advice from Doug Upstone here and purchase Doug’s Premium picks here.